LONDON − The Democrats' sweep of both houses of Congress means that President Donald Trump's domestic legislative plans for the final two years of his presidency could be constrained.
But on the foreign policy front, Trump enjoys wide latitude to make unilateral decisions. His overseas actions from Iran to Venezuela have largely taken place by executive order. Congress could restrict funding and block appointments, but it would struggle to prevent his every sudden move, foreign policy analysts say.
What does that mean for Trump's international agenda? "I’d expect more pressure where he thinks the domestic costs are manageable," said Robert Muggah, cofounder of Canada-based geopolitical risk and security consultancy SecDev Group and the Igarapé
Institute, a Brazil-based think tank. "That could mean everything from fresh trade threats against partners to limited military action in Latin America (all under the anti-cartel banner)."
Here's a look at how the shift in congressional power could impact what the White House does overseas.
The Iran story
Trump himself acknowledged on Tuesday night that the war with Iran was partially to blame for his Republican party's rebuke by voters in the midterm elections, as higher global oil prices trickled down to spiking consumer gas prices. In the run-up to the vote, Trump declined to rule out a major resumption of combat operations against Iran following the elections. He also said he was content to have "discussions" with Iran to "see how that all works out."
"The reality is the U.S. has been stuck strategically in the war in Iran since the early days of the war," said Cole Bucy, a former CIA analyst who served as director for Iran at the U.S. National Security Council from 2015 to 2016, in a recent podcast for the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think tank.
Bucy said Trump stopped short of more escalation in Iran ahead of the midterms because of its impact on global energy prices and its downstream impact on the U.S. economy. He said Iran escalation is now more likely because Trump will be less concerned about angry voters at the polls due to gas prices and a bumpy stock market.
Trading on Trade
Trump's combative trade policies that imposed steep tariffs on dozens of countries around the world for allies and foes alike ultimately raised prices for American consumers.
Ryan Hass, an expert on China at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, said he expects the president to "show unrelenting activism, testing the outer limits of his authority as he looks for leverage to bend other countries to his will. He will probably not shy away from congressional criticism or legal battles over his trade activism, viewing them as the price of expanding his presidential power."
Hass also said he expects Trump to continue to wage trade "battles" as a way to shift the narrative away from "potential congressional investigations into his actions, those of his family and his administration."
And like the war in Iran, trade policy is another area where Trump can act without congressional approval.
Whither Ukraine?
Trump has blown hot and cold on his support for Ukraine as it battles Russia's war of aggression. He has oscillated between a frosty reception for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy − who he blames, without evidence, for prolonging the war − and warm words for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who he claims to like.
Trump has gradually eased sanctions on Russia and reduced military aid for Ukraine over the objection of Democrats. With both chambers controlled by the Democrats, there could be a fresh opportunity for lawmakers to put increased support for Ukraine back on the agenda, though Trump's veto powers could blunt that.
Muggah, the geopolitical risk expert, said Trump could also renew his push for a Ukraine peace settlement with Russia that could come over European objections because it might heavily favor Putin.
"A headline-grabbing deal with an adversary could serve the same political purpose as a show of force," he said.
There was muted reaction in Moscow. "We sincerely hope that he will continue his peacekeeping efforts," Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said of Trump. Zelenskyy has not commented.
Weapons for Israel
Before the votes were even cast, Trump surprised many in Israel and the broader national security establishment by announcing that the U.S. would stop providing weapons funding to Israel at the end of the year. Trump said the move followed a deal he struck with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu, who is in the middle of his own battle to stay on as prime minister, has yet to comment on that. Still, it's not immediately clear what funds Trump was referring to. A U.S.-Israel memorandum of understanding that provides $3.8 billion a year in military assistance to Israel expires at the end of 2028.
In the wake of the vote, many Israeli media outlets noted that the outcome of the midterms reflected, in part, what appeared to be little appetite for prolonged war in the Middle East. The U.S. has supported Israel in the Iran war and, indirectly, half a dozen other fronts from Lebanon to Yemen where Israel is engaged in kinetic warfare.
Hady Amr, a Middle East and North Africa fellow at Chatham House, a London think tank, said the Democrats' control of Congress could mean their committees will hold hearings on settlement expansion and violence in the occupied West Bank, scrutinize U.S. arms sales to Israel, demand administration briefings and use appropriations to press the White House. But Trump's policy toward Israel and Palestinians not be "transformed," he said.
A potential black swan after a blue wave
When the U.S. launched a mission in January to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and brought him to New York to face various charges including alleged torture and drug-trafficking, it followed a steady buildup of U.S. forces near Venezuela, heated rhetoric and U.S. strikes against alleged drug trafficking boats.
But the action still surprised the world.
For different reasons, Trump and his hawkish − when it comes to Cuba − Secretary of State Marco Rubio may catch the world off-guard again as they continue to threaten an island that sits 90 miles off the Florida coast: Cuba.
Since the start of the year, the United States has imposed an oil embargo that has brought it to the brink of humanitarian collapse. For months, Trump and Rubio have spoken about how they want to see political and economic change on the communist-run island. Trump has referenced a potential "friendly takeover." But the Pentagon has also drawn up military plans for different scenarios involving Cuba. One of them is a Maduro-style snatch of Cuba's leaders.
Kim Hjelmgaard is an investigative journalist covering global stories for USA TODAY, from living rooms to conflict zones. Follow him on X: @khjelmgaard
Contributing: USA TODAY Pentagon and world affairs reporter Miles J. Herszenhorn
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Democrats take Congress. Will it shake up Trump's global agenda?
