A year ago, the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs met in the National League wild-card series. What a difference a year makes.
The Padres are on almost the exact opposite trajectory now than they were in
2025: they're hitting the ball.
Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill all rebounded from slow starts to help spark a remarkable mid-season turnaround in San Diego as they finished out the year 41-18 after sitting at 50-53 entering July 24. The offense, paired with the deepest bullpen in baseball and getting guys back in the rotation from the IL, not only re-inserted themselves into the wild card conversation but shot them straight to the top of it.
The Cubs won the regular-season series 5-1, but their last matchup was on July 1, weeks before the Padres got it together. Now, they'll have a chance to redeem themselves against a Cubs team that eliminated them at Wrigley Field last October – and this time, it'll be at home in Petco Park.
Here are three factors that will decide the NL wild card series between the Padres and Cubs:
The Padres offense needs to stay hot
In last year's wild-card meeting, the Friars slumped over the final month of the season before bowing out quietly in three games at Wrigley Field. This time around, no team in baseball has been hotter. The Padres sat three games below .500 entering July 24; since then, they finished the season 41-18 as the core of their lineup – Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill – all found their rhythm. Tatis, who didn't break through for his first home run of 2026 until May 30, finished the season with 25 deep balls and a .828 OPS. Sixteen of those home runs came over the last two months of the season as he slashed .296/.365/.613. Simply put, he started hitting like Fernando Tatis Jr. again.
That's the version of himself that will need to show up in this series.
Kevin Gausman's availability for the Cubs
Gausman injured his non-throwing shoulder on a diving tag at first base last Wednesday against the Miami Marlins. He threw a bullpen session on the final day of the regular season and is reportedly being monitored to see if he can pitch in either Game 2 or 3. Getting the 35-year-old right hander on the mound would be huge for the North Siders, who acquired him at the trade deadline with the expectation of what he brings in October.
Gausman was one of the key pieces of the Toronto Blue Jays' historic run to the World Series in 2025, carrying a 2.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with 26 strikeouts to just 11 walks across 30.2 innings in six outings. In Game 2 of the World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, he matched Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitch-for-pitch and retired 17 consecutive batters – second-most in Blue Jays postseason history – until giving up homers to Will Smith and Max Muncy in the seventh inning.
"Oh, man, Kev was really good," Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters at the time. "... They both had low pitch counts. It was kind of a classic pitchers' duel and they made a couple more swings."
How much length can the Padres get from their rotation?
The Padres have the deepest bullpen in baseball. If they can get to Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller with a lead, they can very well pencil in a win at this point. The rotation, however, has been a different story due to injuries. Michael King has been the steady presence as their ace all season and if he can give length in Game 1 to let his relievers get a bit of a reprieve ahead of Games 2 and 3, it could make all the difference.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Padres vs Cubs series will come down to these 3 things
