Hoo- hoo- who’s that I see at No. 9 in the latest playoff rankings?
It’s the ain’t-beat-nobody Hoosiers.
Indiana attempted to play the hits and coast into the playoff after concocting the easiest schedule possible.
If it’s not broken, don’t fix it, right?
That strategy works beautifully if you never lose, and it’ll work if you only lose once.
Just don’t lose twice.
The committee just put the Hoosiers on notice, and the warning reads like this: If Indiana loses once more, it’s going to get the 2025 Notre Dame treatment.
In case you’ve forgotten how that went last December, here’s the reminder: If you draw up a bad schedule, go 10-2, and lose to the two best teams you play, you’re
out of the bracket.
So, that's the rub, Indiana (8-1).
The Hoosiers cannot afford to lose to No. 18 Southern Cal. Can’t afford a loss to Washington or Purdue down the home stretch, either.
The defending national champions, the program that rose from a century’s worth of ashes to become a thresher, the team that’s won 24 of its past 25 games, is one loss away from finishing its season in the Citrus Bowl.
Indiana is in reverse. A loss to USC would be crippling
Indiana dropped four spots in the CFP rankings despite not playing last weekend.
If Jerry Tarkanian was still alive, he might say the committee was so mad Kentucky lost by 28 points to Tennessee that it dropped Indiana five spots in the rankings.
There’s another explanation: All six Big Ten teams Indiana has played lost last weekend, so while the Hoosiers had an open date, their resume got worse.
Anyway, Indiana can’t have it both ways. It can either schedule easy, or it can holler at the committee.
You don’t get to do both and be taken seriously.
So, Indiana must keep winning in November. That’s its only sure path to the bracket.
This committee has taken a hard line on strength of schedule. It’s mostly letting Utah and UCLA off the hook, because those teams are undefeated.
But, if a team like Indiana is going to strategically set up its schedule to be as easy as possible and duck Power Four nonconference competition, then it better not lose — and it definitely better not lose twice.
Indiana was among a handful of Big Ten teams that chose not to play anybody from the SEC, Big 12 or ACC during nonconference play. Instead, it lined up North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky.
Hey, don’t knock it ’til you try it.
That seek the meek, beat the meek, nonconference scheduling philosophy came up aces for Indiana in 2024, when it made the playoff, and last year, when it went undefeated.
Now, though, we’re seeing the flipside of that philosophy. If a team wants to line up cupcakes in September, then it cannot afford to lose multiple conference games.
Strength of schedule matters to CFP rankings
Because, you see, despite what you might have heard from the SEC’s propaganda firm, the playoff committee has always incorporated strength of schedule into its decision-making and not filled out the bracket simply off record.
Strength of schedule matters. Record matters. Eye test matters. Who you beat matters. Who you lose to — and the margin by which you lose — matters.
And, if a team loses multiple times, any one of those factors could be enough to bounce it from the bracket, even if that team is the defending champions.
Let’s face it, if you put aside what Indiana achieved with a Heisman quarterback last season, you might believe the 2026 Hoosiers are a fraud.
Indiana’s best win came against Northwestern. It lacks a win against anyone currently ranked in the top 25. It needed a 60-yard field goal and overtime to survive Minnesota. Its starting quarterback got benched. The Hoosiers are menacing on defense. They’re misfiring on offense, and the committee created the opportunity to zip USC into the top 12 and Indiana out of the bracket if the Hoosiers lose at home to Lincoln Riley’s bunch.
If Indiana doesn’t like that, then it should’ve scheduled tougher.
Too late for that.
Now, Indiana must beat USC, and then keep winning, or risk being treated like last year’s Irish.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Listen to his podcast, "College Football Unfiltered." Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Indiana got put on notice by CFP rankings, and Hoosiers can't cry about it
