As the midterm elections loom and polls forecast heavy Republican losses, the narratives are predictable – Republicans are in panic mode, playing the blame game and already bracing for minority status. To hear some tell it, Republicans should just quit now and try again in 2028, like the trailing team in a blowout softball game invoking the "mercy rule."
But there's one big reason for Republican optimism – the unshakable faith among many of us that even voters unhappy with the GOP will be guided by a deep-rooted patriotism that refuses to reward a party increasingly enamored of socialism.
In my state of Ohio, former Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown is attempting a comeback against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, whom Gov. Mike DeWine appointed to
the seat when JD Vance won the vice presidency. Brown has no overtly socialist history. He has even drawn fire from a socialist third-party candidate, Greg Levy, who called on him to drop out for, among other things, refusing to get behind abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
But that squabble shouldn't fool anyone. Brown has often been rated among the Senate's most liberal members, and he was a reliable Democratic vote.
Brown's party is increasingly in thrall to the Democratic Socialists of America. A September New York Times/Siena poll found that 31% of likely voters view socialism favorably – far too many. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Oct. 18 found that a whopping 70% of Democrats hold a favorable view of democratic socialism.
The DSA's new platform calls for eventually abolishing the police and prisons, ending all military and economic aid to Israel, legalizing migration and granting voting rights to all permanent residents. It would abolish the Electoral College and the Senate, and even replace the president and Supreme Court with an executive and judiciary chosen by Congress. DSA now requires the candidates it endorses to back at least some these ideas.
Avowed socialists and socialist-aligned candidates dot Democratic ballots in these elections, and those who win could wield outsized influence in Congress. Brown may be at odds with the socialist left today, but a senator who voted reliably with his party for 18 years is unlikely to stand in its way.
Democrats have made 'affordability' a crisis before
As of Oct. 20, the RealClearPolitics average shows Brown leading by 2.4 percentage points. But Republicans have good reason to distrust polls.
After the 2024 election, the American Association for Public Opinion Research found that for the third straight presidential cycle, preelection polls had underestimated Republican support relative to Democrats.
Midterm polling has been more accurate and more balanced, but state polls can still miss badly. In Ohio in 2022, nearly every poll showed Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan in a virtual dead heat as late as mid-October. Vance won by more than 6 points.
To be sure, Republicans have reasons for consternation, with gas and diesel prices topping the list. President Donald Trump gets criticized for failing to focus on the economy, but most economic indicators are good – some even great.
Still, Democrats have made "affordability" the crisis of 2026, just as Bill Clinton convinced America in 1992 that a wallet-busting catastrophe loomed when, in truth, a mild recession had ended in March 1991 and an expansion was well underway.
To succumb to the affordability panic, Americans must ignore that median household income last year hit a record high and the official poverty rate fell to a record low. We must forget that cumulative inflation was 21.4% over Biden's four years, compared with 5.4% in Trump's first 20 months. And we must overlook that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act cut taxes for every income group, with new deductions for tips, overtime and seniors.
Voters should reject socialism in America
But now only one issue should matter, and the horse-race polls don't capture it. A majority of likely voters view socialism unfavorably, according to that same Times/Siena poll. That may be why Republicans are still in the hunt.
A daily absentee and early-vote tracker from Majority Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, found as of Oct. 19 that while some states show a shift from mail-in toward in-person voting, there's no clear evidence of a Democratic wave. It looks like another election in which Democrats vote early and Republicans vote later. As one official connected with the firm put it, there may be a blue puddle, but hardly a wave.
Even a blue puddle would signal a troubling acceptance of socialism. For decades, America spent blood and treasure to contain socialism's first cousin, communism, around the world. How tragic it would be if those forces were unleashed on American soil, with the deliberate aid of citizens at the ballot box.
Many of us can't fathom it, even with a self-described democratic socialist, Zohran Mamdani, running New York City and socialists gaining footholds elsewhere.
In these elections, the typical issues must take a back seat as voters stand shoulder to shoulder for a higher cause – reaffirming America as an unyielding bulwark against socialism. Beyond all the chaos and chatter, that's the monumental question these midterms will decide.
Gary Abernathy was an editor and columnist at three Ohio newspapers and worked in Republican Party politics. He was a contributing columnist for The Washington Post from 2017-23, and is the author and editor of “Abernathy Road” on Substack. He writes on energy issues for The Empowerment Alliance.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The GOP has one big reason to be optimistic about the midterms | Opinion
