A fourth poll in the past two weeks once more shows that Democratic candidate James Talarico is leading Republican candidate Ken Paxton within the margin of error in the Texas Senate race.
The Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School poll,released on Aug. 7, shows 47% of likely Texas voters plan to support Talarico, while 43% choose Paxton, a lead within the poll's 4.7-percentage-point margin of error.
“In one of the most watched US Senate races in the nation, Talarico has opened a small four-point lead over Paxton, after the two were tied in June,” ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren said. “The movement over the last two months is largely seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Talarico by 23 points, 53-30%, up from 14 points, 50-36%,
in June.”
Here's a deeper look at the Texas Pulse poll and how it compares with other recent polls.
What the Texas Pulse poll found on favorability, the issues
The August Texas Pulse poll was conducted July 27-30 by ReconMR, an independent research firm that runs the survey with the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, which surveyed 619 likely Texas voters.
It found Paxton has a negative 40-52% favorability rating, up from 34-52% in June, with Talarico's favorability ratingsits at 46-39% — up a little from 39-34% in June.
“Talarico leads by wide margins in the Austin and Dallas/Ft. Worth regions, while Paxton has a large lead in the rural parts of the state, and the Houston and San Antonio regions are currently very closely divided,” Hendren said.
Looking at leading issues during this election, the poll asked the likely Texas voters, "Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you think Ken Paxton or James Talarico would do a better job on each of the following items."
They responded as follows on the issues:
- Making prices more affordable: Talarico 51%, Paxton 38%.
- Securing America's border with Mexico: Paxton 48%, Talarico 44%.
- War in Iran: Talarico 50%, Paxton 39%.
- Keeping Texans safe: Talarico 50%, Paxton 43%.
- Managing the water supply in Texas: Talarico 49%, Paxton 39%.
What do recent Texas Senate polls show?
A new Aug. 4 poll from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Talarico (47%) leading Paxton (45%) by 2 percentage points — within the poll's 2.83 margin of error.
This comes after a Fox News poll, released July 30, showed Talarico leading Paxton by 3 percentage points, 51% to 48%, and a Texas Public Opinion Research poll on July 28 showed Talarico also leading Paxton by 5 percentage points, 45% to 40%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Texas Senate race tightens as fourth straight poll shows slim gap
