It's Election Day, and voters in all 50 states are headed to the polls for the final chance to weigh in on everything from which party will control Congress to state ballot initiatives to local leaders in a slew of races across the country.
Democrats are hoping to win majorities in both chambers of Congress, which have been controlled by Republicans for the past two years, and political experts say the party is poised to flip at least one: The House of Representatives.
The factors which point to a Democratic win in the House include historical trends that the party in control of the White House loses seats in midterm elections, President Donald Trump's low approval rating and the fact that Republican's current majority only sits at a thin 218-214
seats. But it's not guaranteed.
Ballot counting in some states is likely to go well into the night, but elections experts are eyeing a number of districts as early signals of whether there will be a blue wave and, if so, how big it might get.
The early results to these questions could Americans an understanding of where the night is headed, according to Kyle Kondik, a political analyst and the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics:
- Florida: Will Republican redistricting in Florida help the party pick up four House seats?
- Virginia: Virginia Democrats failed to redistrict, but can they still flip two red seats blue?
- Pennsylvania: Can Republicans hold onto four swing districts in this state that Trump flipped red in 2024?
- Indiana: Will the Indianapolis suburbs oust their Republican representative in a "blue wave?"
- Kentucky: A 13-year Republican representative is leaving his seat. Can Democrats pick it up?
- New York, Ohio and New Jersey: These three Republicans made headlines. Will the blue wave oust them too?
"These are kind of the frontline races, that are, at this point, Democrats are expected to pick up," David Wasserman from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report told USA TODAY. "I think they're kind of the prerequisite districts for Democrats to be able to win the House majority, whereas there are other races in these states that would be signs of like a really big wave."
Florida
Will Republican redistricting in Florida help the party pick up four House seats?
Florida polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and the state is known to report quickly, so its results will be an early insight as to how Republican redistricting efforts hold up, according to Kondik.
In April, lawmakers in the Sunshine State passed redrawn maps that could add four Republican House seats in the state. If Republicans prevail in picking up four Democratic-held seats in Florida's Orlando-area 9th District, Tampa-area 14th District, South Florida/Palm Beach-area 22ndDistrict and Miami-area 25th District, that could indicate good news coming the rest of the evening for Republicans.
Kondik, though, says he doubts the party will pick up all four.
Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Florida, from the state's 23rd Congressional District is running in the state's new 25th District, and Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, currently serving the 25th District, is running in the new 20th District after the redistricting shuffle. Those two winning in their new districts would spell good news for the Democrats, experts said.
"Democrats should be able to hold onto the 25th District, which is Jared Moskowitz," Wasserman said. He added that the real toss-up districts are the 14th and 22nd, both of which are represented by Democrats.
Wasserman's Cook Political Report rates Florida's 7th, 9th, 13th and 27th Districts as leaning Republican, and he said if Democrats claim any of those four, it would indicate a huge evening of wins ahead.
Virginia
Virginia Democrats failed to redistrict, but can they still flip two red seats blue?
Democrats are hoping for two pickups in the state's 1st and 2nd Districts, which are currently held by Republican Reps. Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans, respectively.
Kiggans is running against the district's former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, in a rematch after Kiggans ousted Luria from office in 2022. A Christopher Newport University poll on Oct. 14 said that Luria led slightly.
"Democrats should be able to win in an environment like this," Kondik told USA TODAY of the state's 2nd District. "If they don't, there's probably some sort of problem" for the party.
The state's 1st District is "certainly not a must win seat" for the Democrats to reclaim the majority, Kondik said, but a local prosecutor in the state, Democrat Shannon Taylor, hopes to flip her opponent Wittman's seat.
Wasserman said he expects Luria to win the 2nd District. He called the first district a "bubble race" that Democrats could prevail in, and said that if Democrats can additionally pick up a win in the state's 5th District, that would be a "tsunami race," indicating big wins ahead for Democrats.
Pennsylvania
Can Republicans hold onto four swing districts in this state that Trump flipped red in 2024?
Four eastern Pennsylvania seats are up for grabs, and the results could also be an early indication of whether the blue wave is crashing down on Republicans.
Five-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in Congress — he voted against the final version of Trump's signature "big, beautiful bill" — and has long been a target for Democrats. His Bucks County-area 1st District was ranked as leaning Republican until Oct. 30, when the Cook Political Report shifted it to toss-up. In 2024, Fitzpatrick won his fifth term after outperforming Trump in the district by double digit margins, but now, a Democratic county commissioner has the chance to flip it blue.
Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, meanwhile, hopes to keep his seat representing the eastern Pennsylvania 7th District that includes Allentown. Mackenzie flipped the district red in 2024 by a tight margin of around 4,000 votes.
Eighth District Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan and 10th District Republican Rep. Scott Perry in the northeast and south-central parts of the state, respectively, face Democratic challenges that experts are watching closely.
"If Fitzpatrick loses, it probably means Democrats are flipping all four, I would think," Kondik said. "But they don't need to win all four. I think they need at least one or two."
Indiana
Will the Indianapolis suburbs oust their Republican representative in a "blue wave?"
It doesn't seem very likely, as Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz's 5th District is ranked as leaning in the Republican's favor, according to the Cook Political Report.
A Democrat has not represented the district since 1993, but Kondik recalled quick vote reporting in recent elections from Hamilton County, which sits in the district.
"If Democrats flip either of those, that's probably a signal that they're getting more than 20-35 House seats," Kondik said of the Indiana district and one in Kentucky.
Kentucky
A 13-year Republican representative is leaving his seat. Can Democrats pick it up?
In Kentucky's 6th District in the central part of the state, including the city of Lexington, an open race for a seat held by Republican Rep. Andy Barr could provide a sign of a "mega wave" if Democrats flip it, according to Kondik.
"I would watch Kentucky," Wasserman also stressed as a major indicator of whether a blue wave pulls through.
Barr is running for U.S. Senate, leaving his district open. He assumed office in 2013 after winning the seat from a Democrat.
A former Republican state senator, Ralph Alvarado hopes to keep the seat in Republicans' hands, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said in an Oct. 14 poll that Democratic candidate Zach Dembo led by six points.
"I don't quite think Democrats will get there," Kondik said.
Other Republican holds in New York, Ohio and New Jersey
These three Republicans made headlines. Will a blue wave oust them too?
Other eastern time zone tossup races to watch sit in New York, New Jersey and Ohio.
- Rep. Tom Kean, R-New Jersey, is defending his suburban swing district after a four-month hiatus from Congress in the spring. While he announced upon his return that he had been hospitalized for depression, the months-long lack of an explanation drew criticism.
- Rep. Mike Lawler, R-New York, hopes to keep his Hudson Valley seat in one of the least-red Republican-held districts in the country. He is one of just three Republicans representing a district former Vice President Kamala Harris carried in 2024.
- Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, is running for reelection in what was once considered a solidly GOP district, until the race was upended by domestic violence allegations leveled by Miller’s ex-wife, Emily Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio. Miller has repeatedly and vehemently denied the allegations.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 5 states' election results could be early indicator of blue wave
