Notre Dame football is in trouble if it loses to No. 1 Miami on Saturday, Nov. 7.
The Fighting Irish were ranked No. 11 in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season on Nov. 3, representing the final at-large team of the 12-team bracket as of now. It's a five-spot difference from the US LBM Coaches Poll, where Notre Dame is ranked No. 6.
Notre Dame could be in jeopardy of missing the CFP for the second consecutive year if it loses to Miami, based on the CFP rankings. The Fighting Irish went 10-2 last season without a signature win and were the first team left out, and that stance from the CFP committee appears to be similar again in 2026 if they
lose to the Hurricanes.
Should Notre Dame win out in 2026 and lose to Miami, it would again have a 10-2 record with its best win against either Wisconsin, North Carolina or SMU. Last season, the Irish's three best wins were against Southern California, Pittsburgh and Navy.
There are plenty of games and decisions to be made between now and Dec. 6, when the 12-team bracket is officially set. The first rankings release is an important benchmark, though, and one that isn't favoring Notre Dame as of now.
CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek explained Notre Dame's ranking after the rankings reveal.
"The committee's impressed by their performance on both sides of the ball," Yurachek said. "They are a very good football team. But when you look at Notre Dame's schedule and the wins that they have versus the teams that are ahead of them, they don't have that signature win right now. They lost in their only top 25 matchup at BYU. Their next best win is on a neutral site against Wisconsin.
"They've got a great opportunity in front of them this weekend at home versus Miami to get that signature win that I think they need to move up in the rankings. But the committee is very impressed by them. They wouldn't be 11th if we were not."
ESPN analyst Greg McElroy shared a similar stance seconds after Notre Dame was revealed at No. 11.
"I think they're elite," McElroy said on the live show. "I love their offense, I love their defense, I love their personnel. But when your best win right now is a Wisconsin team that's not ranked. And, at this point, you could make the case their best win is actually a road trip to North Carolina winning in the rain they way they won.
"Right now, they haven't beaten anybody. The good news for Notre Dame is they have that opportunity this weekend. ... This weekend is a gotta-have-it moment for the Irish."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Notre Dame’s CFP hopes could come down to one game. And it’s No. 1 Miami
