President Donald Trump is traveling to Texas for the third time in a month to campaign for the midterms.
Earlier this fall, he promised to hit 35 of the most competitive races for Congress around the country, but he keeps coming back to Texas. In August, he headlined a Republican fundraiser in Houston
. In September, he appeared at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas. Just last week, Trump again traveled South, stopping in Durant, Oklahoma, and Denton, Texas.On Oct. 7, Trump will appear in San Antonio, Texas, alongside the Republican candidate in the Lone Star State's most-watched race, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
"Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody; I have to always remember that because he could be a pain in the ass sometimes,"
Trump said at the Denton rally Oct. 1. "Is he here, by the way? Oh, there he is. Good. I didn't even know if he's here. I don't care. I would say the same thing."
Here is where Paxton's bid for U.S. Senate stands, and what to know about the other competitive races in the state.
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race as Election Day looms
Since Paxton beat U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter Republican primary in March that led to a May runoff, Paxton has been trailing in the polls against Democrat James Talarico with early voting set to begin in two weeks.
While it was not an immediate lead Talarico earned, as the two were statistically tied in multiple polls throughout the summer. It wasn't until late summer that Talarico broke out of the tie within the poll's margin of error to solidify an actual lead.
In August, The Cook Political Report moved the Texas Senate race from Republican-leaning to a toss-up, giving Democrats hope they could elect a Democratic senator to the seat for the first time since 1988.
Recent polling from Fox News and The New York Times in October also shows Talarico leading Paxton, 51% to 49% and 51% to 46%, respectively.
Gov. Greg Abbott sees warning signs as Gina Hinojosa closes gap between them
While the Texas Senate race focuses on control at the federal level, the governor holds real power to lead the state and its Republican Party.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking his fourth term, has led Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in polling since the March primaries. However, Hinojosa has stayed within striking distance, keeping the gap in single digits, with The New York Times October poll suggesting she might be taking a lead in the race.
Recent political analysis still favors Republicans, but with some Democratic potential, as Cook Political Report on Aug. 20 moved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."
But the report said it would adjust its findings as the race enters the final stretch to Election Day and once Abbott starts using attack ads to define Hinojosa — who the polls still show Texas voters are trying to get to know.
Texas Republican strength tested with new congressional map
At Trump's urging last year, Texas Republicans pushed through a redistricting map to help ensure they would gain five new seats in the U.S. House.
After many legal battles, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the map constitutional in December 2025, and this will be the first election cycle under the new map, with many watching to see whether Republicans show a net gain.
While those elections are must-watch, a few others are also being closely monitored, as recent polling and analysis have swung them from solid red to likely red.
Here's a look at three U.S. House battleground races in Texas that are worrying Republicans, according to The Cook Political Report:
Texas 15th Congressional District
Candidates: Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) vs. Democrat Bobby Pulido
Rating: Toss-up
Why: Based on public and private polling showing the race is still tied — or even that Democrat Bobby Pulido, the Tejano singer-songwriter, has a lead. This is a departure from a district that favored Republicans and voted for Trump by 18 points in 2024 and three points in 2020. De La Cruz won reelection in 2022 by 14 points.
"While the partisanship of the district barely changed after the new lines were drawn, nearly 60% of it is new to De La Cruz," the analysis from Cook Political Report said. "High Democratic enthusiasm due to the competitive Senate race is also working in Pulido’s favor; the same polls show (James) Talarico carrying the district."
Texas 35th Congressional District
Candidates: Republican Carlos De La Cruz vs. Democrat Johnny Garcia
Rating: Lean Republican
Why: "Democratic deputy sheriff Johnny Garcia and Republican Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz have raised less money than other challengers this cycle," the analysis said. "But both parties’ super PACs are planning on investing in this race, and it’s hard not to see it as competitive given the statewide dynamics in Texas."
However, the report said Republicans should still have an advantage, as the district has a sizable Hispanic population (54%) and is less volatile than districts in the Rio Grande Valley.
Texas 9th Congressional District
Candidates: Republican Alex Mealer vs. Democrat Leticia Gutierrez
Rating: Likely Republican
Why: "Republicans aren’t taking this race for granted, and No Going Back PAC, a super PAC funded by MAGA Inc., is sending direct mail to shore up their nominee," the analysis read. "Democrats’ candidate, Leticia Gutierrez, has very little cash on hand, and it’s hard to see her getting much outside support in Houston’s expensive media market."
The district also voted for Trump by 20 points in 2024 and nine points in 2020.
However, despite this, The Cook Political Report moved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."
Kinsey Crowley is the Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at KCrowley@usatodayco.com. Follow her on X (Twitter), Threads, Bluesky and TikTok.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY Network based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump's trip to Texas is 3rd in 30 days as Senate race tightens
