Preseason polls are not a crystal ball.
They might predict the national champion. They might not.
That’s a good thing. How boring would it be if the 12-team playoff became a near perfect reflection of the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll or of the preseason AP poll?
No upsets. No drama. Just chalk, September through November, until the preseason polls are proven flawless — flawless, but boring.
Preseason polls help fuel the August content machine, and the August content machine helps generate excitement for the season.
No harm, no foul, good fun, right?
ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt disagrees. He’s out on preseason polls. Why? Because, they’re not perfect. Because, they’re not a crystal
ball. Apparently, SVP would like it better if the polls told him with certainty in August who’d win the national championship.
“The point is that you’re selling stories and people and programs right now, in August, without any real knowledge for sure about what’s what,” Van Pelt said on his podcast.
Yes, we don’t know for sure what’s what. That’s why they play the games.
I generally enjoy SVP’s work, but anyone who wants to ditch preseason polls can kick rocks.
It's OK if college football preseason poll is wrong
Just because we need games to determine what’s what doesn’t mean we should do away with preseason polls or prognostications.
Sports are supposed to be fun, right? Well, preseason polls are kind of fun.
The First Amendment says we’re free to imperfectly predict what will happen in a college football season, and SVP is free to point out where the polls and predictions went wrong, a year later.
Anyway, the preseason polls generally aren’t that far off the mark.
Peek at last season. Five teams from the preseason top 10 of the coaches poll made the playoff. Two other preseason top-10 teams, Texas and Notre Dame, finished with 10 wins and were among the first four out of the playoff. That leaves Penn State, Clemson and LSU that went splat from the preseason top 10. Each finished 7-6.
“You don’t know” what’s going to happen, Van Pelt said, as he focused on the imperfections of predictions.
Just because James Franklin couldn’t beat Northwestern and Dabo Swinney and Co. flopped against Syracuse doesn't mean we must dump the coaches and AP polls, which are a big part of college football's history.
Preseason Top 25 doesn't cloud CFP selection committee's judgment
This is all part of the beauty of college football in 2026. Talent is more spread out than it used to be, and we can’t predict with 100% certainty what’s going to happen.
It’s not as if the College Football Playoff selection committee operates under the spell of preseason polls. When preseason No. 1 Texas lost three games last season, the committee sent the Longhorns to the Citrus Bowl instead of the playoff, even though Texas might well have won a playoff game or two.
Penn State, Clemson and LSU were nowhere to be found in the top 25 when the first CFP rankings came out in November. Say what you will about the committee — and I say plenty — but they do their own homework, and they don’t simply default to preseason polls.
Full disclosure: USA TODAY organizes the coaches poll, but my support of preseason polls wouldn’t waver even if a different company organized the poll. Coaches’ preseason predictions don’t prove perfectly accurate, but that’s OK. The preseason coaches poll offers insight into how coaches — who are supposed to be experts on college football — view the competition and the college football landscape in August.
The coaches misjudged Indiana last season. The Hoosiers were preseason No. 19. Do you think that detracts from Indiana’s dream season? No, just the opposite. It enhances the story. What’s wrong with that?
Anyway, it’s not as if polls would disappear if the coaches and AP polls went away.
ESPN, the company for which Van Pelt works, puts out a preseason top 25. In fact, ESPN first publishes a “too early” top 25 for the next season in January, on the night that the national championship game for the current season is played.
Boy, I bet that chaps Van Pelt’s rump!
Sports Illustrated puts out a preseason top 25, too. So does Athlon. So does On3.
So does everyone this side of your grandma.
Actually, your grandma’s probably got a preseason top 25, too. She can have hers. The coaches can have theirs. There’s no harm in either. Imperfectly predicting what will happen is part of the fun.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: If you don't like college football preseason polls, kick rocks | Opinion
