It's an interesting Sunday slate lined up for Week 5, and it starts bright and early with another international game in London.
Tired of those yet?
I'm not.
You could schedule kickoff for 3 a.m. and I’d still watch.
We’ve got desperate favorites, a plucky underdog and defenses that can’t defend.
Here are my five favorite plays for Week 5.
Back the Jaguars -7 vs. Eagles
Let’s set those alarms and get the day started with a breakfast bet.
You’ll notice I’m advocating for Jaguars by a touchdown. If your book is hanging -7.5, buy the half-point at still-very-reasonable juice.
A touchdown win gets our money back. That matters.
Aside from trends supporting the play — Jacksonville is 3-1 against the spread this season while Philadelphia is winless — the Jags are also the better, more complete
team.
Trevor Lawrence and Co. are coming off a 22-17 win over the injured Bengals and the quarterback won’t have to deal with much of a pass-rush from an Eagles defense that’s been gashed lately.
Bhayshul Tuten gets a favorable matchup against a defense that’s struggled to tackle. The running back had a pair of touchdowns called back by penalties last week, and there should be opportunities to finish the job Sunday.
The Eagles are fresh off blowing a double-digit second-half lead to the Rams, and the team is spiraling.
Jalen Hurts is having a rough season. His offensive line just lost Pro Bowler Cam Jurgens to a trade and future Hall of Famer Lane Johnson to sudden retirement.
The backfield isn’t in much better shape. Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve and Saquon Barkley is expected to miss the game, leaving Will Shipley headed for a much larger role.
Top receiver DeVonta Smith could sit, though Dallas Goedert expects to return. But Goedert doesn’t fix all that.
Did I mention the Jaguars lead the NFL in turnover-differential and have the league’s second-best red zone defense?
Combine Philadelphia’s personnel problems with Jacksonville’s comfort with playing in London, and I expect the favorite to control this game.
Trust the Texans -7 vs. Titans
Another AFC South favorite where I’d encourage you to buy the half-point to allow for protection against a seven-point win.
The play is a bit more narrative driven.
Are the Texans superior to the Titans?
It’s fair to question — considering both are winless — but Houston has won three straight meetings with Tennessee, and I’m expecting desperation to take center stage on the road.
The Texans entered the season with playoff aspirations but are now flirting with the wrong kind of history. No club has ever started 0-5 and rallied to reach the postseason.
C.J. Stroud isn’t playing bad football. He’s coming off a 347-yard, two-touchdown performance and still hasn’t been intercepted this season. With big-play target Nico Collins back, the offense is more than capable of frustrating Tennessee's defense.
Houston’s defensive struggles are harder to dismiss. This team hasn’t earned much trust when it comes to protecting a lead. Will Anderson Jr.’s return to limited practice this week was encouraging, and I expect the Texans’ front to make Cam Ward work for whatever the Titans generate.
Give me the Texans to finally get in the win column.
Take the Giants +3.5 vs. Commanders
Fun fact from the trends department: Over the last five years, the Giants are 13-4-1 against the spread with a backup quarterback starting.
Again, just an interesting note, not the root of the argument given all the obvious changes for the franchise in the last half-decade.
I simply believe the 3-1 Giants are better than the banged-up Commanders, even with the roller coaster experience that is Jameis Winston at QB.
Winston threw for three scores and was intercepted twice in last week’s 36-24 win over the Cardinals, and he’ll next face a Commanders defense that has allowed touchdowns on 12 of 15 red zone trips.
The Commanders also rank 30th in passing touchdowns allowed.
This should give New York chances to finish drives, provided Winston doesn’t decide to finish them by throwing to the wrong jersey.
Jayden Daniels’ return from a dislocated elbow raises Washington’s ceiling, but receivers Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs are both dealing with hamstring injuries. Diggs will miss the game. Plus, the Commanders are coming off a disappointing loss to the Colts in London and have to readjust without a bye.
Another trend to consider: While home favorites are 35-12 straight up following an international game, they’re just 23-24 ATS.
New York should keep this close. I’ll be sprinkling the moneyline as well.
Back the Bears -1.5 vs. Packers
Legendary coach Mike Ditka died Friday.
I’ve lost count of how many “Bears by a million” tweets I have seen in response.
While I can certainly be swayed by a good narrative, I was already on Chicago at Lambeau.
After helping the offense to nearly 500 total yards in last week’s win over the Jets, Tyson Bagent will continue to start in place of injured QB Caleb Williams. Ben Johnson has already won with three starting quarterbacks this season.
Apparently the contingency plans are working.
Kyle Monangai has been ruled out with a toe injury and backfield mate D’Andre Swift isn’t fully healthy either. That matters for an offense averaging an NFL-best 196.3 rushing yards per game, but the Packers have permitted the second-most TDs and attempts to rushers and the third-most rushing yards.
Don’t let Green Bay’s 2-2 record fool you.
The Packers can’t rush the passer without Micah Parsons, can’t run the ball without Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love’s dismal offensive line gives him little time to operate in the pocket.
Their red zone defense is also the worst in the league, allowing touchdowns on 85.7% of their opponents’ trips.
I trust Johnson to put Bagent in position to win another game. It doesn't need to be by a million. They don’t even have to win by a field goal.
Bet Lions/Cardinals over 10.5 third quarter points
This is a fun one.
The Lions and Cardinals are each a perfect 4-0 on the year to the third quarter over.
Third quarters involving Detroit this season have totaled 68 points for an average of 17 per, while Arizona games have mustered 48 at 12 per.
Frankly, when the Lions are on the field, overs are always in play.
Full-game. Either half. Any quarter.
The offense is averaging 29.8 points. The defense is allowing 31.8. The offense is indefensible, the defense is offensive.
As for the Cardinals, their woeful pass-defense has let up a league-high 9.1 yards per attempt and, overall, at least 30 points in three straight games.
We could target the full-game total, but it has climbed from 48.5 all the way to 54.5, so I’m picking my spot and betting into an albeit small perfect trend.
I don’t love that we’re seeing 10.5 points rather than 9.5 because we can’t settle for a touchdown and a field goal, but that’s what the plus-money payout is for.
Kaufman's Card: NFL Week 5 best bets
- Jaguars -7 vs. Eagles
- Texans -7 vs. Titans
- Giants +3.5 vs. Commanders
- Bears -1.5 vs. Packers
- Lions/Cardinals over 10.5 total 3Q points
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Kaufman’s Card: AFC South favorites among best bets for NFL Week 5
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