At this stage of the fantasy football draft season, you've likely read enough "sleepers" or "breakouts" articles to make your eyes bleed.
Given the saturation of fantasy content and easily accessible data, most sleeper picks are no longer unknown commodities by the time drafts come along. The days of landing a potential Week 1 starting running back after pick 150 are long gone (I'm looking at you, Alfred Morris). That said, popular sleeper picks can still provide excellent value at the right price.
For this article, we're going to look at four players who have been popular breakout picks this draft season but still provide good value at their current ADPs:
4 fantasy football sleepers to target
WR Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears
Luther Burden was one of the more popular breakout picks to start the offseason, with his
ADP climbing into the late 30s at times. However, a groin injury in early August has resulted in him dropping down boards. Per FantasyPros' Real-Time ADP tool, the 22-year-old is currently being drafted at pick 55, on average.
Bears head coach Ben Johnson recently stated that Burden "looks 100% to me," and given that the wideout returned to practice a week ago, it would be fair to expect him to suit up for Chicago's opener.
Burden posted elite metrics as a target-earner and producer. Among receivers with at least 40 receptions last year, the rookie ranked 15th in targets per route run. And what he did with those routes put him in elite company. According to Pro Football Focus, there have been 32 instances over the last 10 years where a wide receiver has averaged at least 2.6 yards per route run on 60+ targets. Here's the list:
- Julio Jones (2016, 2017, 2018, 2020)
- A.J. Green (2016)
- Antonio Brown (2017, 2021)
- Michael Thomas (2018, 2019)
- Stefon Diggs (2019)
- A.J. Brown (2019, 2020, 2024)
- Davante Adams (2020, 2021)
- Justin Jefferson (2020, 2022, 2023)
- Cooper Kupp (2021)
- Deebo Samuel (2021)
- Tyreek Hill (2022, 2023)
- Nico Collins (2023, 2024)
- Brandon Aiyuk (2023)
- CeeDee Lamb (2023)
- Jaylen Waddle (2023)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (2023)
- Puka Nacua (2024, 2025)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2025)
- Luther Burden III (2025)
And here's the complete list of rookies to average at least 2.5 yards per route run (min. 50 targets):
- Odell Beckham Jr. (2014)
- A.J. Brown (2019)
- Justin Jefferson (2020)
- Ja'Marr Chase (2021)
- Puka Nacua (2023)
- Luther Burden III (2025)
That's it. That's the whole list.
As an added bonus, Burden ranked sixth among receivers in EPA per route, 10th in DVOA per route, and 12th in EPA per target. FTN also charted Burden as having the highest separation rate at the position.
Getting on the field was Luther's biggest burden (get it?) in 2025, but there should be no such issue this season. DJ Moore, who ranked 11th at the position with 559 routes run, was shipped off to Buffalo, and the Bears' biggest addition to their wide receiver room was journeyman Kalif Raymond. Yes, Colston Loveland is set to take on a massive role in 2026, but a team that's projected to score the eighth-most points could easily feed multiple elite pass-catchers.
If you're looking for a wideout outside the top 40 who can explode into the elite tier, Burden should be at the top of your list.
WR Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars
Parker Washington might be the fantasy community's most popular sleeper pick, but that doesn't make him a bad pick at his current ADP.
According to FantasyPros, Washington's Real-Time ADP is 66th overall. High-stakes leagues have bought into the hype, as the 24-year-old is going 52nd overall over the last two weeks.
Per Yahoo's Josh Norris, when he shared the field with Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers last year, Washington led the team with a 31% target share and a whopping 3.17 yards per route run. Following Jacksonville's bye, Washington averaged 15.8 PPR points over 10 games (including the playoffs). In the Jaguars' final four games, the Penn State product racked up 89.1 PPR points, good for a 22.3 per-game average.
Liam Coen has been raving about Washington all offseason, and ESPN's Michael DiRocco reported that the Jaguars are "reluctant to put Washington on the sideline.
All signs point to Washington being a legitimate breakout candidate, and if you can land him in the 60s or 70s in your home league, it's worth pulling the trigger.
TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
Before his injury last season, Tucker Kraft was fantasy's TE1, averaging 1.2 more half-PPR points than the next closest player. Right now, Kraft's Real-Time ADP sits at 65th overall and within two spots of the TE6.
Kraft's metrics last year were truly elite. Among all qualified pass catchers, he ranked first in EPA per target, receiving yards per attempt over expected and yards after catch per reception, third in EPA per route, and sixth in yards per route run. Additionally, at the time of his injury, the 25-year-old ranked second at his position in red zone targets and touchdowns.
While most of the focus has been on Green Bay's backfield following Josh Jacobs being placed on the commissioner exempt list, it is also a boon to the Packers' passing game. Last season, with Jacobs on the field, the team threw the ball 51.1% of the time. With Jacobs off the field, their pass rate jumped to 63.2%. Though that doesn't account for non-neutral situations, it is reasonable to expect them to pass at a significantly higher rate. Kraft should be a prime beneficiary.
"Dairy Kittle" is an excellent pick at his current ADP.
RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
Let's start with the obvious — Jonathon Brooks is far from a safe bet. The good news is that with a Real-Time ADP of 87th overall, he doesn't have to be.
If someone told you that an extremely talented top-50 selection was competing with an inefficient back for a starting role, you'd be ecstatic to land him within the top-50 picks of your fantasy draft. That's the exact scenario that unfolded with TreVeyon Henderson last year. Brooks' injury discount allows us to get him 40 picks later.
Here are some of the names currently going ahead of Brooks in drafts: Jaylen Warren, Rhamondre Stevenson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Harold Fannon Jr., Carnell Tate, DK Metcalf, and Tony Pollard, to name a few. Do any of those possess Brooks' league-winning upside? In the words of the great Bishop Bullwinkle, "Hell to the naw naw."
Whiffing with a pick in this range won't cost you a fantasy championship. Hitting a home run can certainly help you win one.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 4 popular fantasy football 'sleepers' who are still too cheap
