"Winter's first warning shot" has hit the Northeast, according to the National Weather Service.
Parts of New York saw more than a foot of snow and much of the eastern half of the country is facing lows in the 20s and 30s.
But a change is coming, just in time for a more mild Thanksgiving Day in less than two weeks, according to a weather forecast that is starting to come into better focus.
By then, the current cold snap that's being felt across much of the eastern half of the country should be a distant memory, as it will slowly fade in mid-November, forecasters said, to be replaced with above-average temperatures. In fact, the unusual warmth should be widespread by around Nov. 20, encompassing all areas east of the Rockies, NOAA's Climate Prediction
Center (CPC) said. Only the Far West will be cooler-than-average around that time, the CPC said.
And overall, Thanksgiving week should bring a mild pattern across much of the United States, according to Anthony Artusa, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center. "Most of the country will see above-average temperatures that week," he told USA TODAY. It will not be record-breaking warmth, but it will be on the warm side, when compared to normal, he added.
One exception, he said, will be the southern Plains, where chilly temperatures are expected. "Oklahoma and Texas could see their first freeze of the season that week," Artusa said.
Perhaps more important than the overall mild temperatures is the fact that Artusa doesn't see any powerful storms that week, so widespread, major travel disruptions could be avoided this year.
But there will still be a few tricky travel spots, according to AccuWeather.
Thanksgiving week forecast
In addition to the expected mild weather, the overall weather pattern for Thanksgiving week features rainy weather across the southern tier of the nation, along with California, where snow will fall at higher elevations, AccuWeather said.
"Travel will be disrupted by heavy rain and thunderstorms in a few spots across the South," said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Chad Merrill in an email to USA TODAY. "It will be unusually warm in parts of the South and East for a few days during the week, and then turning cooler," he said.
Elsewhere, mostly dry weather is forecast for the northern tier, including the heavily populated and traveled Northeast.
Thanksgiving week weather forecast for the East
The Northeast should start Thanksgiving travel week mainly dry and comfortable, but rain potential may increase across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast later in the week, according to AccuWeather.
For Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City, mainly dry conditions are expected, though it could be a touch chilly early in the day. “For a Thanksgiving parade, the daytime high doesn’t tell the whole story. People lining the route early in the morning may feel a chill even if conditions stay dry,” Merrill said.
By late in Thanksgiving week, the rain potential may increase in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with chillier air expected late in the holiday weekend into early December, AccuWeather said.
Thanksgiving week weather forecast in the central US
For travelers starting their Thanksgiving drive early, the route across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas couldsee heavier rain and severe thunderstorms during the first part of Thanksgiving travel week, according to a forecast from AccuWeather.
Farther north, much of the Midwest and Ohio Valley is expected to stay mostly rain-free and warmer than average through Thanksgiving. Chicago’s Thanksgiving Day parade is forecast to be mainly dry, with comfortable conditions and a high near 51 degrees, AccuWeather predicts.
By later in the week, another period of wet weather is possible in the southern Plains. In addition, chillier air may reach the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a rain or snow shower possible.
Colder air will also push into the Great Lakes late in the week and will probably bring some snow showers, AccuWeather said.
Thanksgiving week weather forecast in the South
From backyard football to the drive to Thanksgiving dinner, plans across the Gulf Coast and Southeast may needa rain backup, an AccuWeather forecast said. Periods of rain are possible during Thanksgiving week, with a few thunderstorms capable of bringing heavier rainfall. Some areas could also see rain and cooler conditions on Thanksgiving Day.
"A Thanksgiving forecast that includes rain doesn’t automatically mean the whole day is a washout. Timing matters," Merrill said. "A downpour during the drive or an outdoor gathering could change plans, while rain overnight may barely interrupt them,” he added.
Forecasters are monitoring whether a southern storm could track toward the Northeast around Thanksgiving or remain close to the Southeast coast, AccuWeather said.
Thanksgiving week weather forecast in the West
NOAA's Artusa said that for the West Coast, there could be some storms coming in from the Pacific Ocean, which would bring rain to Oregon, along with Northern and Central California.
However, "I'm not overly confident that the moisture will reach the coast," Artusa said.
Additionally, AccuWeather said that some snow is expected at higher elevations in the western mountains (especially the Sierra Nevada), making the West a region to watch for people hoping to ski during the holiday week.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'Winter's first warning' is here. Will cold be gone by Thanksgiving?
