There will be no shortage of intrigue when Patrick Mahomes returns from injury to lead the Kansas City Chiefs in a momentum-filled Week 1 clash against AFC West rival Denver Broncos and Bo Nix.
Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee that derailed a 2025 campaign that was already well below his career norms. Prognosticators are not particularly bullish about Mahomes' quarterback prospects entering 2026, but the Chiefs hedged those concerns by shoring up its ground attack.
In addition to star acquisition Kenneth Walker III, Kansas City will also have Emari Demercado and Emmett Johnson in the backfield. There are also concerns surrounding maligned receiver Rashee Rice, but his upside remains through the roof even if his floor appears
concerningly low.
The Chiefs are still positioned well to contend for a division title, but the Broncos want to stake their claim. After a 14-3 season, Denver's defense should be just as dominant as last year while its offense added receiver Jaylen Waddle to the mix. The Broncos were talented enough to make the AFC Championship last season and have largely retained an identical roster in 2026. Can Denver continue its build toward a Lombardi Trophy, or is there more time left in the Chiefs Dynasty?
Chiefs vs Broncos odds, moneyline, over/under
Opening lines:
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -155; Broncos +130
- Total: 43.5
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Broncos at Chiefs score predictions
Adam Kaufman: Broncos 17, Chiefs 14
Yup, an upset at Arrowhead. While I happen to believe the Chiefs will rebound to make the playoffs and the Broncos will fall out, this isn't about the full season. This is about Week 1. And, in Week 1, Patrick Mahomes is a mystery. The future Hall of Famer tore his ACL and LCL last December on the same day Micah Parsons tore his ACL for the Packers. Parsons isn't expected to play for at least another month. Are we sure Mahomes, whose mobility is such a significant part of his game, is ready to start only nine months removed from surgery? Against a Vance Joseph defense that piled up a franchise-record 68 sacks last season? Preseason football offered no indication because we didn't see him. Perhaps Andy Reid will be more conservative and lean into new addition and reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, leaving Mahomes to scramble less. We know Bo Nix is ready to go after last year's season-ending ankle injury. We know Jaylen Waddle should be a boon to an already dynamic offense. We know about that Broncos defense. I don't know how I'm supposed to have conviction in the Chiefs on Monday night.
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz: Broncos 27, Chiefs 17
A rare early trip to Arrowhead Stadium might actually serve the Broncos well. Beyond Davis Webb taking over play-calling duties, Denver has enviable continuity in almost every phase. That could help the team shake its trend of slow starts under Sean Payton. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have plenty of new elements in play as they try to get Kenneth Walker III going with a functional under-center offense. But the Chiefs' receivers figure to be overmatched against the Broncos' secondary, and Denver's pass rush could feast against Kansas City's offensive tackles.
Nate Davis: Broncos 27, Chiefs 20
The new king of the AFC West visits the recently deposed rulers to close out the week. Thankfully, Denver QB Bo Nix and three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes will both be in the saddle after each saw his 2025 campaign come to a premature end. But while the rebooting Chiefs are hoping for a quick return to relevance, the Broncos project as the outfit with a more realistic shot to play in Super Bowl 61 – especially since they'll catch Mahomes on a night when he could be knocking off the rust and perhaps relying on a defense still trying to incorporate several rookies and free agent additions. Mahomes will also likely be facing a formidable Denver D without LT Josh Simmons in the lineup. Yikes.
Richard Morin: Chiefs 27, Broncos 17
The Patrick Mahomes erasure this week has been shocking. Are we really writing off the Chiefs quarterback already? Is he no longer one of the dominant offensive forces in the NFL? The correct answers to both questions is a firm "no," and No. 15 will go out and prove it in a primetime Monday night game. I'm not saying the Broncos are washed up, but I expect them to take a step back in 2026. It's still Mahomes' world.
Where to watch Broncos at Chiefs
- Matchup: Chiefs vs. Broncos
- Date: Sept. 14
- Time: 8:15 p.m.
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Location: Kansas City, Missouri
- TV: ESPN, ABC
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Broncos at Chiefs: Predictions, picks and odds for NFL Week 1 game
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