President Donald Trump and other Republicans will meet inDallas Sept. 9 and 10 to rally voters to cast their votes for their candidates in November.
Republicans currently control the House and the Senate, and just a few races will determine if they can maintain control of both chambers of Congress come January. If history is any indicator, the president's party typically doesn't do well in the midterms. Despite Trump's low approval ratings, he believes he can rally the base and help deliver a win for Republicans this fall.
"I think we're going to do well, and I'm going to go campaign," Trump said in an interview on Fox News' "Sunday Night in America with Trey Gowdy." "I'm asking the people to get out and vote. Pretend I'm on the ballot."
The first-ever
Republican midterm convention, dubbed "Trumpapalooza," will bring together many candidates who are actually on the ballot, though some Republicans are opting to skip the event. Here is a guide to who's who in some of the closest races in the country and how Trump is polling in the battleground states.
What are the toss-up races for Senate?
The Cook Political Report has rated the following Senate races as toss-ups:
- Alaska - Incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, elected in 2014, faces Democrat Mary Peltola, a former member of the House of Representatives.
- Iowa - Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Josh Turek, a state representative and a gold medal-winning Paralympian, faces Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ashley Hinson, a House representative and a former TV news anchor, in an open race.
- Maine - Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican elected in 1996, will face former Maine state Senate member and logger Troy Jackson. Jackson replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee after Platner was accused of sexual assault, which he denies.
- Michigan - Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former health official, will face Republican Mike Rogers, a former House representative, in the open race.
- Ohio - Incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted, appointed to the Senate seat after JD Vance became vice president, will face former Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who was first elected in 2006 and lost reelection to GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024.
- Texas - Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and scandal-embroiled Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton will face off in an open race.
What are the midterm election toss-up races for the House?
The Cook Political Report has rated the following House races as toss-ups:
Arizona:
- 1st Congressional District, covering Scottsdale. Republican Jay Feely faces Democrat Amish Shah.
- 6th Congressional District, located in southern Arizona. Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani is defending his seat against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza.
California:
- California's 22nd Congressional District, a highly competitive swing district in the southern and central San Joaquin Valley. Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao faces Democratic challenger Randy Villegas.
Colorado:
- Colorado's 8th Congressional District, covering the suburbs north of Denver and up to Greeley. Republican Rep. Gabe Evans, who has held the seat for one term, faces a challenge from Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel.
Florida:
- Florida's 25th Congressional District, newly redrawn, stretches roughly from the Delray Beach/Boca Raton area south to Miami Beach. Democrat Rep. Jared Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer, former mayor of Boca Raton.
- Florida's 14th Congressional District, also newly redrawn, covers part of the Tampa Bay area. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor faces a challenge from Republican Mike Beltran.
Iowa:
- Iowa's 1st Congressional District is located in Southeast Iowa. It features the third meeting between incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan.
- Iowa's 3rd Congressional District is in Central Iowa. Republican incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn faced Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott.
Michigan:
- Michigan's 7th Congressional District is located in mid-Michigan. Incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Barrett faces a challenge from Democrat Will Lawrence.
- Michigan's 10th Congressional District covers Macomb and Oakland counties. In this open race, Trump-endorsed Michael Bouchard faces Democrat Christina Hines.
New Jersey:
- In New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. faces off against Democratic newcomer Rebecca Bennett.
New York:
- New York's 17th Congressional District is a suburban district just north of New York City. Incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler, a moderate Republican, seeks to hold his seat against Democratic challenger Cait Conley.
Ohio:
- 9th Congressional District covers Toledo. The race is a rematch between incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur and former Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin.
- 7th Congressional District, covering Medina and Ashland counties. Incumbent Republican Rep. Max Miller is facing Brian Poindexter. The seat used to be reliably Republican, but Miller has been accused of domestic violence by his ex-wife, which he denies.
Pennsylvania:
- Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District covers an eastern region of the state including Allentown. Incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie will face Democrat Bob Brooks.
- Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District covers Harrisburg. Incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry will face Democrat Janelle Stelson.
- Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District covers the Northeast corner of the state. Incumbent Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan Jr. will face Democrat Paige Cognetti.
Texas:
- Texas's 34th Congressional District: Republican Eric Flores is running for the seat currently held by Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez.
Virginia:
- Virginia's 2nd Congressional District: Incumbent Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans will face a rematch against Democrat Elaine Luria.
Washington:
- Washington's 3rd Congressional District: Incumbent Democrat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez will face Republican John Braun, a member of the Washington State Senate.
Wisconsin:
- Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden is in a tight race against Democrat Rebecca Cooke.
What is Trump's approval rating overall?
Trump's average approval rating has been net negative since April of his first year back in office and fluctuating since. Here is Trump's average approval rating as of Sept. 8, according to aggregators:
- RealClearPolitics Poll Average: 39.7% approve, 57% disapprove
- New York Times: 38% approve, 58% disapprove
- Silver Bulletin: 38.2% approve, 58.4% disapprove
What is Trump's approval rating in battleground states?
Morning Consult rolls up its poll results over a three-month period to calculate the state approval rating. Surveys conducted April 1-June 30 found Trump's approval is net negative in the following key battleground states for Senate races:
- Alaska: 43% approve of Trump, 53% disapprove (margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points)
- Iowa: 42% approve of Trump, 56% disapprove (margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points)
- Maine: 38% approve of Trump, 61% disapprove (margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points)
- Michigan: 40% approve, 58% disapprove (margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point)
- Ohio: 43% approve, 55% disapprove (margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point)
- Texas: 45% approve, 52% disapprove (margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point)
Contributing: Zac Anderson, Phillip M. Bailey and Emily R. Condon of USA TODAY; Stephen Gruber-Miller, Brianne Pfannenstiel and Marissa Payne of the Des Moines Register; Todd Spangler and Clara Hendrickson of the Detroit Free Press; Anthony Shoemaker, Laura A. Bischoff, Haley BeMiller, Jessie Balmert of The Columbus Dispatch; Stacey Barchenger and Laura Gersony of the Arizona Republic; Daniella Segura of the USA TODAY Network
Kinsey Crowley is the Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at KCrowley@usatodayco.com. Follow her on X (Twitter), Threads, Bluesky and TikTok.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: These midterm races are toss-ups. A watch guide for the GOP convention
