No wonder the Big Ten so desperately wants a 24-team playoff.
The conference that supplied the past three national champions is suddenly losing its balance up on that lofty perch, and it could become a struggle for the Big Ten to qualify more than two teams for this year’s 12-team playoff.
In the latest sign that we’re living inside someone's simulation, UCLA is the Big Ten team I most trust to make the playoff. The Bruins remained undefeated by shutting out Nevada.
UCLA keeps winning, Indiana keeps surviving, and the rest of the Big Ten is a mess. With the 12-team bracket still in place,
the Big Ten needs Southern Cal to stay hot after toppling No. 2 Ohio State, 30-18.
Because, all of a sudden, the Big Ten can’t count on the Buckeyes.
Here’s what’s on my mind heading into the first CFP rankings:
Ohio State is in trouble without Julian Sayin
A three-loss team is making this playoff. I believe that more and more with every upset. In fact, I’m trending toward the possibility of multiple three-loss teams making the bracket.
Will Ohio State be among them? The Buckeyes suffered their second loss with a whimpering defeat at USC.
Don’t pin this loss on quarterback Luke Fahey. Although the three-star freshman didn’t inspire an abundance of confidence, I put this result more on an Ohio State defense that failed to adequately support a young quarterback making his first career start in place of the injured Julian Sayin.
Eleven penalties and red-zone sputterings contributed to the Buckeye breakdown, too.
With four Big Ten games remaining and Sayin not returning anytime soon, another loss is coming Ohio State’s way.
The Buckeyes probably will finish with the best strength of schedule of any Big Ten team, but you must wonder how the committee will treat a team playing without its starting quarterback.
Three years ago, the committee used an injury to Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis as a reason to box the undefeated Seminoles out of the playoff. That decision came from a different set of committee members and within the constraints of a four-team bracket.
And, still, it’s hard to imagine the first 9-3 team to make the playoff will be one playing with a backup quarterback.
So, Ohio State must look at this as if it can’t lose again.
Put differently, it needs to go 4-0 in November with a backup quarterback.
The Buckeyes are suddenly in a world of hurt, and the problems don't stop at quarterback.
Texas will make playoff if Arch Manning keeps this up
If Arch Manning could play every game against Mississippi State, he’d put his uncles’ careers to shame.
Manning enjoyed a get-right game in a 31-3 romp against the Bulldogs that buoys Texas’ charge toward the playoff.
Manning’s stats in three career starts against Mississippi State: 73.2% completion rate, 891 yards, eight touchdown passes, one interception.
He didn’t choose Mississippi like Archie and Eli, but still found a way to torment Mississippi State.
Texas (6-2) presents as one of the likeliest candidates to make the playoff as a 9-3 team. The Longhorns have four SEC games left. That includes a road trip to LSU in two weeks.
On Ohio State’s growing list of issues, include Texas.
The Buckeyes lost at Texas with Sayin in the lineup, so if both teams finish 9-3 and there’s only room for one in the bracket, which do you think the committee will choose?
The US LBM Coaches Poll ignored the head-to-head result and ranked Ohio State at No. 10 this week, one spot ahead of Texas.
The committee can fix what the Coaches Poll apparently missed: With Manning playing better of late and Ohio State down its starting quarterback, Texas is the superior team.
Sayin’s injury is one Ohio State problem that won't go away. The Texas road block looms as another.
Big 12 playoff situation improves
The Big Ten’s unraveling comes to the benefit of the Big 12.
The Big 12’s playoff outlook keeps evolving. Two weeks ago, the conference appeared to be in great shape to achieve multiple bids for the first time.
Then, in Week 8, Brigham Young and Texas Tech surrendered their undefeated records with upset losses, and some wind slipped from the Big 12 sails.
So much can change in a week, though.
BYU and Texas Tech bounced back with wins, and Utah joins Miami and UCLA as the nation’s only undefeated teams.
Because Texas Tech will play neither BYU nor Utah in the regular season, there’s a chance the Big 12 could finish with two one-loss teams in addition to its conference champion.
These first playoff rankings will reveal some insight into how the committee views the top end of the Big 12.
The ideal situation for the Big 12 would be Utah ranking within the top three, BYU ranking as the top one-loss team not named Georgia or Indiana, and Texas Tech being tucked inside the top 12.
The other ideal situation for the Big 12 would be the Big Ten cannibalizing itself, and two-loss teams like USC and Ohio State becoming three-loss teams in November.
Notre Dame overrated, Wake Forest underrated. Will committee notice?
I made this point after Notre Dame’s 35-13 victory over Navy, and before Wake Forest played Virginia: Notre Dame is overrated in the polls, especially when you consider its resume mirrors that of Wake Forest.
I’m doubling down on that assessment after Wake Forest trounced Virginia, 51-7, to match Notre Dame with a 7-1 record.
Ranked No. 6 in the Coaches Poll, the Irish are getting more credit than their accomplishments merit. Wake Forest is underrated at No. 14.
It’s on the playoff committee to correct the error of the polls.
Where will BYU rank? It needs to be ahead of the team it beat
Oh, one more word to the committee: Do not rank Notre Dame ahead of BYU.
The teams played, BYU won, and the committee shouldn’t want until December to recognize that, like it did with the Notre Dame-Miami situation last year.
Let’s not repeat that nonsense, OK?
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Listen to his podcast, "College Football Unfiltered." Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ohio State issues don't end at Julian Sayin injury. Arch Manning is another problem
