While Subtropical Storm Josephine heads away from the northeast U.S. out into the Atlantic Ocean, thousands of miles away in the Pacific Ocean, soon-to-be Hurricane Vance may be on a crash course with the west coast of Mexico.
The 2026 hurricane season, which officially lasts until Nov. 30, continues to be a tale of two oceans: While the Pacific has been extremely active with 23 named storms so far, the Atlantic has been unusually quiet, with just 10 named storms.
"The reason for the frenzy of activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the near silence across the Atlantic can be attributed to El Niño," AccuWeather meteorologist Jesse Ferrell said in an online forecast. Overall, AccuWeather said weather patterns from El Niño have boosted storm activity in the Pacific but mostly
snuffed them out in the Atlantic.
Subtropical Storm Josephine still a threat as it heads out to sea
Subtropical Storm Josephine, now spinning some 200 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, continues to bring gusty winds, rough surf and coastal erosion to much of the East Coast as of midday Oct. 22.
A subtropical storm is a meteorological term for a hybrid storm that has elements of both tropical and non-tropical storms.
The National Hurricane Center said that "gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the northeastern United States coast through today [Oct. 22]." In addition, "minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide."
As for rough surf, "large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," the hurricane center said.
On the current forecast track, Josephine should move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the next couple of days. The storm is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds on the night of Oct. 22 or early Friday, Oct. 23, the hurricane center said.
Tropical Storm Vance strengthening in the Pacific
Vance, now some 505 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, won't be just a tropical storm for long, the hurricane center said: The storm is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, Oct. 22, and could become a major hurricane by the weekend.
Hurricanes have winds of at least 74 mph, while major hurricanes' wind speed is at least 111 mph.
Residents and businesses across western Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Vance, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned. "The exact track of the storm will play an important role in determining the severity of impacts to western Mexico, or whether the storm remains offshore entirely."
In addition, some leftover tropical moisture from the remnants of Vance could even move into Texas and Oklahoma next week, DaSilva said.
In the meantime, the hurricane center said that "swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."
More tropical trouble may be brewing near Hawaii
Forecasters from the hurricane center and AccuWeather are also keeping watch on an area of disturbed weather in the central Pacific Ocean near Hawaii.
"We are monitoring another area thousands of miles to the west of Vance, and a few hundred miles to the west of Hawaii," DaSilva said.
This feature has a medium chance of organizing and strengthening to a tropical depression or storm in the central part of the Pacific basin from Oct. 25-28, AccuWeather said.
The hurricane center agrees, noting that "environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development" within the next seven days.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Storm Josephine spins out in Atlantic, Tropical Storm Vance heads to Mexico
