Tamara Berger is miffed at the backhanded praise President Donald Trump gave Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas.
"Let me tell you, it's true, he may not dress right, he may not talk exactly perfectly and he may not be the best looking guy I've ever seen," Trump told a laughing audience at the American Airlines Center on Sept. 9 about the Republican Senate nominee.
"But you know what he is? He's the greatest attorney general in America and he deserves to be your next senator."
The president's remarks may have rubbed some conservative voters the wrong way, but they are an acknowledgement of how uniquely burdened Paxton is in the face of past bribery allegations and marital drama — even as Republicans
are counting on the Texas attorney general to hold on to the seat many in the GOP consider a must-win.
Berger, 56, who lives in Seguin, Texas, said she was "disgusted" by Trump's presentation, even if he was joking, and called Paxton an "American through and through."
Asked what advice she would give Paxton to win over voters on the fence, Berger, who voted for Trump three times responded, "Give me a break. Nobody is perfect."
"I don't agree with his private life, but I also don't know all the details," she added. "There's always two sides to a story, and that's not my place to judge. We've all had personal grievances. So has Biden. So has (Bill) Clinton. So has pretty much every other politician."
Her remarks highlight the reason Paxton is vulnerable to an upset by Democrat James Talarico: the Republican is viewed favorably by 43% of likely voters and unfavorably by 55%, according to a late September poll from Texas Southern University.
Polls also show Paxton with little appeal to some pivotal segments of the electorate. The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin found in August that just 29% of suburban voters viewed Paxton favorably, versus 54% who viewed him unfavorably. The same survey found 43% of Texas suburbanites looked at Talarico in a favorable light compared with 34% who viewed him unfavorably.
The result: A state Trump carried by 14 percentage points in 2024 is surprisingly competitive. Multiple surveys show a tight race, with some finding Talarico up by as much as 6 percentage points.
"Republicans have arrived at this really problematic situation where they have a candidate that we know much of the professional Republican class thought was vulnerable and would be not the best candidate to have at the top of the ballot," said James Henson, executive director of the Texas Politics Project, which conducts public opinion polling. "But that is counterbalanced by a Republican base that in the primaries just seemed determined to vote for him and and to nominate him."
Majority of Texans say Paxton isn't honest or trustworthy: poll
Trump helped Paxton defeat Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas primary this summer, despite warnings from some GOP strategists that tossing out the four-term senator in favor of someone less popular would be risky in an-already difficult year for Republicans.
During the GOP primary, for instance, a Republican operative close to the Cornyn campaign told USA TODAY that Senate leaders and former Trump campaign officials were pressuring the president to oppose Paxton, in light of his 2023 impeachment on bribery charges by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives.
Paxton was accused of using his power as state attorney general to benefit a real estate developer who helped remodel his home and who employed a woman with whom Paxton allegedly had an affair. The attorney general has consistently denied the bribe charges, and the state Senate acquitted him after a two-week trial.
In 2025 his wife, Angela Paxton, a state legislator, announced on X the two were getting a divorce based on "biblical grounds" after being married almost four decades. Other embarrassing episodes include being forced to return another lawyer's $1,000 pen that he plucked at a Texas courthouse in 2013.
The Paxton campaign declined repeated requests for comment, but public polls show those controversies have seeped into the minds of most voters.
When asked how well the phrase "honest and trustworthy" describes Paxton, just one-third of voters said very to somewhat well, a survey conducted by the Texas Politics Project in August found. More than half of respondents, however, said the opposite, including 29% of Republicans and 44% of independents who said "not at all."
Henson said the startling part of the poll is that only a quarter of Republican voters selected "very well" when asked about Paxton's honesty and trustworthiness.
"Ideally, your marquee candidate at the top of the ballot is going to be doing significantly better than that," he said.
The Paxton campaign, he said, faces three risks: Republicans who vote for Talarico or a third-party candidate, those who stay home and others who leave their ballot blank for Senate.
That, combined with a sinking approval rating for Trump, has put a seat that Cornyn won four times by comfortable margins in the "toss-up" column, according to forecasters such as the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
'Foolish': Republicans weigh options as Cornyn keeps swinging
The Talarico campaign has applied its own pressure to the sore spots in the GOP coalition, such as by highlighting how it hired a longtime Cornyn staffer and appealing to historically conservative factions. Speaking at a Sept. 28 forum hosted by the U.S. Hispanic Business Council in Fort Worth, Texas, Talarico said farmers and ranchers have been "screwed over" by those in office.
Republican Glen Whitley, a retired state judge, is supporting the political newcomer over Paxton. He said in an interview that corruption allegations have hounded Paxton for years, and Texans are fed up.
"Just at every turn people catch him doing things basically for himself instead of serving the public," Whitley told USA TODAY. "That's just not something that people appreciate of an elected official."
Among GOP voters who identify as "strong Republicans" Paxton holds a 74% approval, the Texas Politics Project survey shows. But that drops to around 40% among those who self-described as "not very strong" or as "lean Republican," the poll finds.
Republicans have also failed to reconcile since the primary battle, typified by Cornyn telling CNN on Sept. 25 that he has no plans to support Paxton's campaign, "for all the reasons we pointed out in the primary."
The senator has also called his GOP rival "lazy" and a "poor campaigner."
Republican Brenda Foster, 83, supported Cornyn in the primary, which saw the senator and allies spend $90 million criticizing Paxton, often on personal grounds. She admitted the attorney general is "coming with too much baggage," but the Lubbock, Texas, native still plans to pull the lever for the GOP nominee.
"You only have two choices, and if you're going to vote, I think you'd be foolish to vote for Talarico," Foster, a retired school teacher, said.
"My fear is that people will stay at home because they somehow can't support Paxton, and they don't see it the same way I do," she added. "I see it as a clear choice, but I do not think that some will necessarily vote for Paxton."
Scott Teer, 67, a facilities manager in Richardson, Texas, said he isn't a fan of Paxton's "moral character" but that ties to Trump, support for border security and opposition to the Biden administration are persuasive enough.
"I agree with him 90% of the time," he said.
Others who spoke with the USA TODAY Network, such as Dylan Barron, 19, a student at the University of Texas at El Paso, emphasized how the Senate race represents an opportunity to hold on to Texas' conservative roots.
"I'm a Republican," he said. "I'm not really a fan of the Democrats."
David de la Fuente, a senior analyst at Third Way, a Democratic think tank, said going into the final stretch of the midterms Paxton is considered the "single weakest Senate nominee" this year, comparing him unfavorably to Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
"Almost a decade ago, (Democrat) Beto O'Rourke came within three points of Ted Cruz, just because (Cruz) is not the most likable dude," he said. "But, to our knowledge, Cruz has never cheated on his wife, has not committed any big crimes and O'Rourke still got within three points of him in a good Democratic cycle."
Public polling by the Texas Politics Project on the eve of the 2018 midterms showed roughly 50% of suburban voters held a favorable view of Cruz versus 40% with an unfavorable one.
Paxton trashes convention, touts personal uplift
Paxton, a staunch Trump supporter, has tried to moderate his image by investigating controversial data centers and showcasing a softer side by talking about past health struggles.
During the U.S. Hispanic Business Council in Fort Worth, Texas, he recounted a childhood eye injury that partially impaired his vision. He criticized the current healthcare system as inadequate before touting a plan that he says will include a $25,000 tax deduction for medical expenses and another $25,000 per dependent.
"When I was a child, poor medical care permanently damaged my eye," Paxton said in a Sept. 28 post on X. "It taught me how important quality, affordable healthcare is for families."
Republicans are spending millions attacking Talarico, a 37-year-old state legislator and Presbyterian seminary student, as too liberal or not masculine enough.
"This race is about defending Texas and our country," Paxton said during a Sept. 30 rally in El Paso. "It is also about safeguarding our faith and our way of life. I've never seen someone so willing to weaponize faith to sell a radical agenda."
Whitley, the retired judge, said relying on culture war attacks and Trump's popularity may not work out either, given the president's approval rating has sunk to a career low of 31% in the latest Associated Press-NORC polling released Oct. 1.
In Texas, the president's job approval is 43%, with a 51% disapproval, according to the Texas Politics Project survey. In a Sept. 30 report, The New York Times obtained an audio recording of Paxton saying that Trump's midterm convention didn't deliver the boost many GOP officials had promised.
"So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers," he said. "Everybody’s numbers dropped."
Nick Maddux, a senior adviser to Paxton, described the report to USA TODAY as "manipulated nonsense" in a statement, but did not address his candidate's comments. Instead he said the attorney general, "looks forward to closing strong" alongside Trump, including an Oct. 1 stop by the president at a manufacturing plant in Denton, Texas.
Trump still receives a thumbs-up from the vast majority of Texas Republicans, who give him an 83% job approval rating, according to the Politics Project survey. But that is noticeably down from the 92% who approved of his performance in February 2025.
Terrie Kieper, an independent who lives in Garland, Texas, voted for the president in 2016. But she said the Republican Party has been turned into a "yes men" party for Trump, voting for Biden in 2020 and former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
The former financial analyst is eager to cast a ballot for Gov. Greg Abbott and other Republicans on the ballot this year, but she remains torn about supporting either of the "dirty socks" running for Senate.
"I would hate myself to give Paxton my vote because I don't trust him at all," Kieper, 57, said in an interview. "I trust him about as far as I can throw the White House, with or without a ballroom."
Contributing: Natassia Paloma, Adam Powell
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why Ken Paxton could lose a Texas GOP Senate seat to James Talarico
