The odds have increased that a tropical system off southern Louisiana could become a tropical storm, but whether that happens or not, the system is forecast to bring heavy rain to the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.
The National Hurricane Centerbegan issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five on Aug. 31 at 11 a.m. A tropical storm warning was posted from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the line between the Vermilion and Cameron parishes, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 24 to 26 hours.
Elsewhere, the hurricane center is keeping an eye on whether the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly could develop again and where it will be steered by prevailing winds, and urging residents
in Hawaii to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Lowell and Hurricane Karina.
The situation off the Gulf Coast is a little more uncertain than typical, because the storm isn't yet organized and it's forecast to make landfall somewhere along that section of coast within 24 to 36 hours, the hurricane center said in the 11 a.m. update. The disturbance has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm before it arrives at the coast as it moves through warmer than normal sea surface temperatures and mild winds that could allow it to get organized and strengthen, the center said.
On Aug. 31, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was centered about 130 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana and about 240 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas. The initial motion is uncertain because the disturbance is still in the formation stage, the center's hurricane specialists said, but it appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 5 mph.
The potential system in the northwestern Gulf is producing 30 to 35 mph winds and is expected to bring "locally heavy rainfall" during the next several days, the hurricane center said. Weather service forecast maps show the potential for up to six inches of rain, depending on where the heaviest rain falls.
"Tropical downpours with high rain rates will be a concern that could bring about street flooding and flooding of urban poor drainage areas," Joe Rua, a meteorologist in the Lake Charles, Louisiana, National Weather Service office, said in an Aug. 30 evening update.
Wind and surge hazards are expected to be low, but uncertainty remains, depending on how the storm develops, the weather service said.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the small system on the morning of Aug. 31. The next name up on the 2026 list of Atlantic hurricane names is Edouard.
Could Tropical Storm Dolly reform?
The chances of Tropical Storm Dolly reforming are low so far, the hurricane center said in an Aug. 31 morning update.
The remnants, near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, continue to produce showers and thunderstorms from the Dominican Republic and Haiti eastward to the northern Leeward Islands. Strong winds are forecast to prevent it from redeveloping over the next day or so as it moves quickly to the west-northwest at around 20 to 25 mph. However, conditions could become more favorable for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the system reaches the Southern Bahamas or Straits of Florida.
Meanwhile, the system could bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and to Puerto Rico and the island of Hispaniola during the early part of the week. The center listed the chances of development at 20% over seven days.
Hawaii also urged to be watchful
Residents in Hawaii are once again being asked to keep an eye on a tropical system that could move past the state. Tropical Storm Lowell is forecast to approach the region from the south by mid-week, the hurricane center said.
Tropical Storm Lowell is forecast to become a hurricane on Sept. 1 as it moves west-northwestward in the Pacific. It's forecast to be south of Hawaii's Big Island on Wednesday as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, according to the hurricane center's forecast map. Its impact on the islands depends on how far south of Hawaii the system remains and the size of the system as it develops.
Hurricane Karina also is moving westward in the Pacific and could be well to the northeast of Hawaii by the weekend of Sept. 5, according to the hurricane center forecast.
Storm tracker
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, covers violent weather, climate and the environment, among other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tropical storm threat rises for Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast
