A new poll shows the Texas governor's race has swung to a dead heat — erasing the lead Gov. Greg Abbott had held over his Democratic challenger for months.
The N+ Univision Sept. 9 poll showed the Republican incumbent and Democrat Gina Hinojosa tied at 47%, with 5% undecided, and was released the day Republicans convened in Texas for their first midterm convention.
The poll also showed that Democrat state Rep. James Talarico has a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 48% to 43%, with 7% undecided in the Texas Senate race.
Here's a deeper dive into the poll for the Texas governor's race and where the race stands.
Greg Abbott, Gina Hinojosa tied in Texas governor's race
The poll was conducted from Aug. 27 to Sept. 4 and surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Texas. Because the poll was not
a probability sample, it has no traditional margin of error; instead, the equivalent margin of error for a matched, propensity-score sampling design is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Overall, the N+ Univision poll showed that since the 2024 election, Texas voters have shifted 8 points more toward Democrats, with 25% saying they have become more supportive of Democrats and 17% saying they have become more supportive of Republicans.
Among Hispanic voters, the shift is even larger, at 11 points. The single most-cited reason for changing views was President Donald Trump's actions as president, named by 25% of voters in the poll and 24% of Hispanic voters.
The poll also found that 44% of voters view Abbott favorably and 47% unfavorably, while 42% view Hinojosa favorably and 29% unfavorably.
Abbott also has a negative favorability rating among Hispanic voters, sitting at 41% to 50%.
Recent Texas governor's race polling
The N+ Univision Sept. 9 poll follows a Texas Public Opinion Research Aug. 27 poll that showed Abbott pulling further ahead of Hinojosa, 49% to 42% with 6% undecided.
Last month, the Cook Political Reporton Aug. 20 moved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" for several reasons.
But the report said it would adjust its findings as the race enters the final stretch to Election Day and once Abbott starts using attack ads to define Hinojosa — who the polls still show Texas voters are trying to get to know.
These two polls follow a summer of polls that showed the race between the two had been within the single digits:
- Texas Politics Project (Aug. 25): 45% Abbott, Hinojosa 40%.
- Texas Pulse (Aug. 7): Abbott 46%, Hinojosa 45%.
- Texas Southern University (Aug. 4): Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 43%.
- Texas Public Opinion Research (July 28): Abbott 45%, Hinojosa 42%.
- New York Times(June 30): Abbott 51%, Hinojosa 44%.
- Texas Politics Project (June 22): Abbott 47%, 40%.
Top issues for Texas voters right now
Here's what's on the top of Texans' minds as they enter the final stretch toward Election Day, according to N+ Univision Sept. 9 poll:
- Cost of living (54%)
- Health care costs (37%)
- Electric grid (37%)
- Border security (36%)
- Housing costs (36%)
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New poll rattles Texas governor's race as Election Day looms
