As Ohioans worry about the direction of the state and nation, Democrat Amy Acton is leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the nationally watched Ohio governor's race, according to a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY Ohio Network poll.
In the new poll, former state health department director Acton is leading biotech entrepreneur Ramaswamy, 50.4% to 41.4%, with Libertarian Don Kissick polling at 2.8%, which could be a significant factor in a close election to replace Gov. Mike DeWine. Other, recent public polls have shown a much closer race.
The Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 23 and Sept. 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The Suffolk University poll is an outlier among recent
public polls, which have largely found the race is too close to call. The Suffolk poll has Acton leading Ramaswamy in a state that President Donald Trump won by 11 percentage points two years ago. In contrast, the recent Bowling Green University-YouGov poll showed a much closer race,with Acton polling ahead of Ramaswamy, 48%-45%, within the poll's margin of error.
In another poll released Sept. 29, Acton was leading Ramaswamy, 50%-44%, among registered voters statewide. The NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll of 1,298 registered voters conducted between Sept. 24 and Sept. 27 had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. It did not list Libertarian Don Kissick as an option by name.
"There are times when you have outliers, then there are times when you're picking up trends that maybe haven't been picked up by others before," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
Suffolk pollsters used the 2018 electorate as a model because it was the last competitive, open midterm race following a Trump victory, Paleologos said. That year, DeWine defeated Democrat Rich Cordray, 50%-47%. (Suffolk's 2018 poll had Cordray ahead by 6 points in early October 2018, but correctly predicted DeWine's blowout victory in 2022.)
"That could be wrong," Paleologos said of the approach. "Maybe the same people who showed up for president in 2024 will show up, and you'll have the biggest turnout ever in the history of Ohio in the midterm. No way to tell, but we have to go with what we know to be true, which is there is an election to model after, and that was the 2018 midterm in Ohio."
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election forecasting newsletter from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said the national environment is making states that Trump won easily into competitive battlegrounds. But the Suffolk poll is still an outlier among recent public polling in Ohio, which shows a much closer race, he said.
"You could be sort of skeptical about polling, but I think you could also just put your head in the sand and say Republicans are going to win no matter what. And that doesn't seem right either," Kondik said.
The poll also zeroed in on 300 additional likely voters in Portage County, a longtime political bellwether east of Akron, which Trump won by 15 percentage points in 2024. In that county, the governor's race was too close to call, with 49% supporting Ramaswamy, 45.67% backing Acton and Kissick receiving 4% of the vote. The margin of error in the Portage County results was plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Ohioans looking for a change
The poll shows Ohioans are looking for change in a state that Republicans have controlled for decades. About 53.8% said Ohio was on the wrong track, slightly lower than the 61.2% who said the United States was on the wrong track.
Acton is campaigning on "making everything cost less" at a time when affordability is top of mind. She is also benefiting from a pro-Democratic national climate as Trump's favorability tanks and the Iran War makes gas and goods more expensive. Nearly 60% of Ohio respondents disapproved of the job Trump was doing as president, according to the new poll.
Independent voters, who normally break with Republican candidates, have overwhelmingly chosen Democrats instead, Paleologos said. "Independents are having buyer's remorse. Their lives aren't better."
The poll indicated Acton had locked down support among her base, with 96% of Democrats supporting Acton and 64% of independents backing her as well.
"Whoever the Democrat is, they'll get my vote," said Charlene Jamison, 69, of Cincinnati, who responded to the poll. "And it’s not because they’re Democrats; it’s because this administration is crooked and something’s really wrong with the president. He’s a crook."
Ramaswamy, who made his wealth in biotech investments, is pitching himself as a successful businessman who can make big changes to improve Ohioans' lives. Trump endorsed Ramaswamy in February 2025, clearing the GOP field of most other competitors.
About 85% of Republicans and 27% of independents supported Ramaswamy in the new poll. The GOP nominee had a primary challenger, car enthusiast Casey Putsch, who won 17.5% of the May primary vote even as Ramaswamy won all 88 counties.
Lisa Brown, 68, of Cincinnati, said she's voting for Ramaswamy because of how DeWine and Acton handled the COVID-19 pandemic.
"I just think he’s the lesser of two evils," said Brown, who had relatives die during the COVID-19 pandemic. "It was a very trying time, and that has a lot to do with it. I just feel like that has a bad spot in my memory: not being able to go to funerals, not being able to do family things. Having a family member die and not being able to be there."
An attack ad offensive
Ohio's gubernatorial election is among the most expensive races of the midterm cycle, with tens of millions spent on attack ads to define the newcomer political candidates.
Poll respondents say Ramaswamy is engaging in more political mudslinging, with 47.6% saying the GOP nominee had run a more negative campaign, compared with 22.8% who said Acton had been more negative and 11.2% who indicated both were equally negative. (Another 18.4% were undecided or refused to answer.)
"It's very difficult to run a negative campaign against a female candidate, someone who's a doctor, someone with her bona fides," Paleologos said. "(Attack ads) they work initially to form an opinion but the sustained attacks sometimes have the capability of boomeranging."
The poll indicated 52.2% had an unfavorable view of Ramaswamy, compared with 44% who viewed him favorably. About 41% had an unfavorable view of Acton, compared with 49% who viewed her favorably.
Does religion matter?
Debates about race, religion and gender have percolated in Ohio's gubernatorial race. If elected, Ramaswamy would become Ohio's first Indian American and Hindu governor. Acton would become Ohio's first female elected governor and first Jewish person to hold the role. (Ohio had a female governor for 11 days when Lt. Gov. Nancy Hollister finished the term of former Gov. George Voinovich.)
According to the poll, 50.2% said a candidate's religion doesn't impact their vote at all. About 9.8% said the candidate's religion impacts their decision "greatly" and another 18% said it "somewhat" impacted their choice.
Democrats (71%) were more likely than independents (45%) and Republicans (39%) to say religion doesn't impact their vote at all. Republicans (15%) were more likely than independents (13%) and Democrats (2%) to say religion mattered greatly.
Reporter Jordan Laird contributed to this article.
This article has been updated to include results from the Marist/PBS News/NPR poll and a link to the Suffolk University results.
State government reporter Jessie Balmert can be reached at jbalmert@usatodayco.com or @jbalmert on X.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Democrat leads new Ohio governor poll as economic concerns grow
