In 2024, President Donald Trump won young men outright. Today, Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot among men ages 18 to 30, 57% to 40%.
Democrats are counting on young men to come crawling back out of frustration with Trump. They should be worried that these voters have given up on both parties.
The party out of power usually enjoys a turnout advantage in the midterm elections, and 2026 looks no different. The Harvard Youth Poll of Americans ages 18 to 29 found that 55% of young Democrats say they will "definitely" vote, compared with just 35% of young Republicans.
Republicans are losing their edge, but Democrats should be cautious
Trump promised to fix the economy, the top issue for young voters heading into 2024, and so far he has failed.
A plurality of young men name inflation and the cost of living,
along with housing costs, as their top issues this November. Asked which policies would most improve their lives, young people chose lowering the cost of goods, lowering housing costs and cutting taxes.
The Iran war is another sore point for Gen Z adults. In the Harvard poll, 71% say they're worried about its economic impact. A Generation Lab survey found that 41% of young Americans blame Trump most for economic conditions, far more than anyone else.
Trump’s second term has let down many of the young men who voted for him, but Democrats shouldn't read too much into that.
Democrats lost serious ground with young men in the last presidential election. Between 2020 and 2024, Trump's share of the vote among young men rose 15 percentage points. Among young women, it rose just 8.
Young men had good reason to sour on the Democratic Party heading into 2024. The struggling economy was part of it, but most simply didn't identify with the version of the party that grew out of the woke era. Young men didn't feel Democrats wanted their support, and for the most part, Democrats didn't seem to.
Vice President Kamala Harris ran a presidential campaign that was overwhelmingly feminine in its pitch, built around "reproductive freedom" and female pop-star endorsements. Identity was a central theme, with allied groups hosting Zoom calls organized by identity group.
For years, many progressives wrote off young White men as people with every advantage. But these young men don't feel especially advantaged. They're frustrated with their economic prospects and their place in society, and most of all with being told those concerns didn't matter.
Democrats let those progressive voices dominate the party during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Young men took the hint and moved away.
While Democrats alienated young men, Trump and his allies went after them. The campaign sent Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, onto nearly every podcast with a big male audience – Joe Rogan, Theo Von, Flagrant and more. Many pundits scoffed at the time. Given Trump's huge gains with young men, the strategy worked far better than they expected.
To win back young men, Democrats need to change
Democrats will likely win the young men who show up in November. The real worry is how many will bother to show up to vote at all. Even if Democrats win young men this year, that won't mean they've repaired the damage they did driving them away.
Young voters just aren't excited. Only 12% told Harvard pollsters they feel motivated and ready to take part in the election. Many are cynical or checked out, which doesn't bode well for turnout in the midterm elections. And because older Americans have long dominated midterm turnout, young voters could matter even less in 2026 than they did in 2024.
That should worry Democrats. If young men feel neither party is listening, they could simply stay home.
Democrats have been trying to win them back since the 2024 letdown, but beyond elevating "manly" candidates, they haven't changed much on the issues. The party's economic agenda is largely the same, and so are its social views.
Democratic candidates may look better next to Trump's second-term failures, but don't mistake that for young men flocking to Democratic policies.
So far, Democratic politicians haven't spelled out how they would actually improve young men's lives. If the party wants young men back for good, that's where it has to start.
Dace Potas, a law student, is an opinion columnist for USA TODAY. Follow him on X: @DacePotas
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why young men won't come crawling back to Democrats | Opinion
