We’ve officially reached the one-month mark of the 2026 NFL season, and Week 5 brings the first bye weeks. The Kansas City Chiefs and Carolina Panthers will sit this one out, but there’s still plenty of action
to target on Sunday.
The USA TODAY Sports NFL betting roundtable is back with its best bets for the weekend. Our experts went 3-2 in Week 4, with two contributors picking up their first wins of the season. With four weeks of results, trends and data now in the books, we have a clearer picture of what these teams can offer - and where the betting value might be hiding.
Sunday features a 12-game slate, including an early kickoff in London, giving bettors plenty of opportunities.
Our experts have scoured the available markets to identify their favorite plays, from spreads and totals to player props and anytime touchdown bets. Here are our best NFL bets for Sunday’s Week 5 action. Best of luck if you tail.
Best bets NFL Week 5
All odds listed are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a complete list.
Participating analysts: Nick Brinkerhoff, Jack McKessy, Jacob Camenker, Adam Kaufman, Tom Viera
Cleveland Browns K Andre Szmyt to make 2+ field goals (+125)
Nick Brinkerhoff: It took a couple of weeks, but we’re heating up and looking to extend this winning streak to three. Geno Smith continued to protect the ball in Week 3, unable to complete a pass to his team or the Chicago Bears. Now we’re turning to Smith’s Week 4 opponent so we can head to the window once again.
Szmyt has made at least two field goals in three straight weeks, only failing to hit this number in a Week 1 blowout loss. Todd Monken’s team has proven they can move the ball and Szmyt showed off how powerful his leg is with a 56-yard game-winner last week. In the modern kicker game, those are two huge factors working in our favor.
The Jets defense is only allowing touchdowns in the red zone just under 53% of the time and the Browns offense is scoring touchdowns in the red zone at a 50% rate. Again, two factors working in our favor. New York will surrender some points, but expect them to be field goals.
With more rain in the forecast at MetLife Stadium (shocker), footing could become an issue, as we saw in the Jets’ Week 2 loss to the Packers. Szmyt can easily get us two kicks through the upright to cash us out for another week.
Cleveland Browns WR Denzel Boston longest reception for 25+ yards (+123)
Jack McKessy: We got off to a hot start to the season with two straight hits on best bets. Then the refs threw a flag that wiped out a Lamar Jackson rush attempt we needed in Week 3 and recovery has been slow. This week, let's get back on the wagon.
Boston has emerged as one of the best rookie receivers in this year's class, alongside teammate KC Concepcion. But Concepcion isn't making explosive plays at the rate Boston is. The second-round pick has 13 catches, which is fourth-most on the team, but he leads the Browns in receiving yards (284). Of those 13 catches, a team-leading four of them have gone for 20 or more yards. Through four weeks, Boston has yet to go one game without a 25+ yard catch.
The Jets, Boston and the Browns' opponent in Week 5, deserve credit for how improved their secondary looks this year – they finally recorded an interception! New York has been more susceptible to long receptions over the last two weeks, with at least two opposing receivers in each of the last two games recording a catch over 20 yards. Given Boston's explosiveness, these trends could continue for both him and the Jets.
Chicago Bears RB D'Andre Swift to record 100+ rushing yards (+140)
Jacob Camenker: Originally, I was set to back Marvin Harrison Jr. to put together a strong showing against the Lions in this spot. However, news that he is being traded will force me to pivot to another top play, D'Andre Swift.
The Bears will be down backup running back Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) in Week 5 against the Green Bay Packers. That will open the door for Swift to serve in a workhorse role, with third-stringer Roschon Johnson sprinkled in to keep him fresh.
The Packers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs this season. Swift should be able to take advantage of that solid matchup and post his first 100-yard rushing game since Week 1.
Jacksonville Jaguars -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-125)
Adam Kaufman: Let’s set those alarms and get the day started with a breakfast bet. You’ll notice I’m advocating for Jaguars -7. If your book is hanging -7.5, buy the half-point at still very reasonable juice. A touchdown win gets our money back. That matters.
Beyond the trends supporting the play, Jacksonville is 3-1 against the spread this season, while Philadelphia is winless, and the Jags are also the better, more complete team. Trevor Lawrence and Co. are coming off a 22-17 win over the injured Bengals, and the quarterback won’t face much of a pass rush from an Eagles defense that’s been getting gashed lately. Bhayshul Tuten gets a favorable matchup against a defense that’s struggled to tackle. The running back had a pair of touchdowns called back by penalties last week, and there should be opportunities to finish the job Sunday. The Eagles are fresh off blowing a double-digit second-half lead to the Rams, and the team is spiraling.
Jalen Hurts is having a rough season. His offensive line just lost Pro Bowler Cam Jurgens to a trade and future Hall of Famer Lane Johnson to sudden retirement. The backfield isn’t in much better shape. Tank Bigsby is on injured reserve and Saquon Barkley is out as well, leaving Will Shipley headed for a much larger role. Top receiver DeVonta Smith will sit, but Dallas Goedert is expected to return. Goedert helps. He doesn’t fix all that. Did I mention the Jaguars lead the NFL in turnover differential and have the league’s second-best red zone defense? Combine Philadelphia’s personnel problems with Jacksonville’s comfort with playing in London, and I expect the favorite to control this game.
Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London anytime TD scorer (+115)
Tom Viera: That's right. We got our first win last Sunday, smashing Tet McMillan to score and the touchdown train is trying to stay on track. What better way to do that than by turning our attention to Sunday night again?
The Falcons offense has been on a tear since Michael Penix Jr. returned to the lineup two weeks ago. Bijan Robinson and the run game have been the headliners, but Drake London is quietly back as well. Here's what London's last seven games have looked like with Penix healthy under center dating back to last season:
- 8 (receptions) -110 (receiving yards)- 1 (touchdown)
- 10-158-1
- 4-42-0
- 9-118-3
- 6-104-1
- 7-119-0
- 9-194-0
The 25-year-old has not scored yet in 2026 but that stretch has a likely chance of ending tonight at home against the Baltimore Ravens. At 6-foot-4, he's an elite red-zone target and has accounted for a ridiculous 48.2% of his team’s receiving yards in two games with Penix. Nate Wiggins, the Ravens' top corner, is much smaller at 180 pounds. With Lamar Jackson sidelined for the matchup, the Ravens' offense could struggle to sustain drives, and Atlanta will have multiple scoring chances. Of course, Ravens coach Jesse Minter could bracket and double-team London, but one defensive miscue is all it takes for London to get loose. Let's watch Drake get it done.
Best bets overall records:
- Nick Brinkerhoff: 2-2 (+0.10 Units)
- Jack McKessy: 2-2 (+1.16 Units)
- Jacob Camenker: 3-1 (+3.45 Units)
- Adam Kaufman: 1-3 (-2.0 Units)
- Tom Viera: 1-3 (-1.4 Units)
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL best bets for Week 5 with expert predictions, player props
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