It's Big Ten football in late October... expect points to be at a premium.
And the oddsmakers agree, setting the over/under for total points at a paltry 36.5 points — the lowest total of the weekend.
But that doesn't mean we won't be in for a good game. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Iowa is ranked No. 24 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, while Wisconsin sneaks in at No. 25 in the AP poll. Kirk Ferentz has been a model of consistency in his 28 years in Iowa City, while Luke Fickell has quieted the mob with a 5-2 start, highlighted by a 24-7 win over USC last week and a Madison field storming.
The Badgers had owned this series from 2010-21, going 8-2 in that span, but
the Hawkeyes have won four straight matchups for the Heartland Trophy wins by a combined margin of 118-26.
So who wins on Saturday? Here's what you need to know for one of Week 9's marquee games, including predictions from USA TODAY Sports reporters and beat writers from the Des Moines Register and Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, part of the USA TODAY Network.
Iowa vs Wisconsin predictions, expert picks
USA TODAY Sports staff picks:
- John Brice: Iowa
- Matt Hayes: Iowa
- Jordan Mendoza: Iowa
- Paul Myerberg: Iowa
- Erick Smith: Iowa
- Eddie Timanus: Iowa
- Blake Toppmeyer: Wisconsin
- Austin Curtright: Wisconsin 17, Iowa 13
- John Leuzzi: Wisconsin 28, Iowa 21
- Jordan Mendoza: Iowa 17, Wisconsin 13
- Adam Bittner: Wisconsin 24, Iowa 10
- Iowa 16, Wisconsin 13: This one feels like a bit of a toss-up, especially with a rivalry trophy on the line. By virtue of being at home, the Hawkeyes get the edge in a predictably low-scoring game. — Craig Meyer, USA TODAY
- Iowa 17, Wisconsin 9: In a reverse of the 2016 score between these teams at Kinnick Stadium, Iowa's defense delivers another dominant day. Zach Lutmer makes his first major impact in a game this season, and Diaz finds the end zone for the first time since Week 1. — Chad Leistikow, Des Moines Register
- Wisconsin 20, Iowa 16: Wisconsin should have the edge, right? Iowa’s run game is hurting with the loss of standout Kamari Moulton and the quarterback situation is far from stable. But we know better than to underestimate the Hawkeyes, who will respond to last week’s loss at Minnesota with a strong showing on Homecoming Weekend. The Badgers, however, are proving they have what it takes to win tough games. Look for another strong showing from the defense and just enough production from the offense and special teams to bring the Heartland Trophy back to Madison. — Mark Stewart, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
- Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17: Iowa's unimpressive quarterback play and Kamari Moulton's injury put the Hawkeyes in a precarious position after losing to Minnesota. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has plenty of momentum after holding USC to negative rushing yards in a big win. This looks like the Badgers' best chance to take back the Heartland Trophy since 2021. But Kirk Ferentz’s teams have a history of bouncing back after tough outcomes, going 8-1 since 2024 in games immediately following a loss. UW also doesn't get much benefit of the doubt after Iowa's 2024-25 dominance in this rivalry. — John Steppe, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Iowa-Wisconsin football injury report
WISCONSIN
- Out: cornerback Cai Bates
- Doubtful: running back Nate Palmer, offensive lineman Barrett Nelson
- Probable: safety Marvin Burks Jr., receiver Malachi Coleman, running back Darrion Dupree, defensive line Nolan Vils
IOWA
- Out: defensive back Tyler Brown, linebacker Burke Gautcher, receiver Brody Schaeffer, defensive back Kyler Gerardy, running back Kamari Moulton, offensive lineman Lucas Allgeyer, offensive lineman Trent Wilson.
- Doubtful: defensive back Cody Haddad, running back Brevin Doll, defensive lineman Emmanuel Olagbaju.
Who will start at QB for Iowa: Hank Brown or Jeremy Hecklinski?
Kirk Ferentz announced Brown will start vs. the Badgers. Brown started the first five games for the Hawkeyes before getting hurt against Ohio State. He was ready to go for the game against Washington, but the staff chose to start Jeremy Hecklinski in a 41-24 victory.
Hecklinski started the Oct. 24 game against Minnesota but was pulled in the second quarter and Brown entered the game. Iowa lost 13-10 as both quarterbacks were mostly ineffective.
Is Iowa favored vs Wisconsin? Betting odds, spread
(via BetMGM)
- Favorite: Iowa by 2.5 points
- Over/under: 36.5 total points
- Moneyline: Iowa -135; Wisconsin +115
What channel is Iowa-Wisconsin football game on? How to watch, time, TV announcers
- Time: noon, Saturday
- TV: Fox
- Announcers: Gus Johnson (play-by-play), Joel Klatt (analyst) and Jenny Taft (sideline)
When was the last time Wisconsin beat Iowa in football?
Wisconsin last won the Heartland Trophy in 2021 with a 27-7 win over the Hawkeyes in Madison. Braelon Allen rushed for 104 yards and Graham Mertz passed for one touchdown and rushed for two more.
Iowa Hawkeyes football schedule
- Sept. 5: vs. Northern Illinois; W, 40-0
- Sept. 12: vs. Iowa State; W, 16-13
- Sept. 19: vs. Northern Iowa; W, 55-0
- Sept. 26: at Michigan; W, 20-19
- Oct. 3: vs. Ohio State; L, 31-14
- Oct. 9: at Washington; W, 41-24
- Oct. 24: at Minnesota; L, 13-10
- Oct. 31: vs. Wisconsin, noon (Fox)
- Nov. 7: at Northwestern
- Nov. 14: vs. Purdue
- Nov. 21: at Illinois
- Nov. 27: vs. Nebraska, noon (CBS)
Wisconsin Badgers football schedule
- Sept. 6: vs. Notre Dame; L, 41-13
- Sept. 12: vs. Western Illinois; W, 36-9
- Sept. 19: vs. Eastern Michigan; W, 54-10
- Sept. 26: at Penn State; W, 24-20
- Oct. 3: vs. Michigan State; W, 31-3
- Oct. 17: at UCLA; L, 17-7
- Oct. 24: vs. USC; W, 24-7
- Oct. 31: at Iowa, noon (Fox
- Nov. 7: vs. Rutgers, 12:30 p.m. (BTN)
- Nov. 14: at Maryland
- Nov. 21: at Purdue
- Nov. 27: vs. Minnesota, 7:30 p.m. (NBC)
USA TODAY Network reporters Chad Leistikow (Des Moines Register), Mackenzie Meaney (Des Moines Register) and Mark Stewart (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) contributed to this story.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Wisconsin-Iowa predictions: College football’s lowest points total. Who wins?
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