Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa spent the summer keeping Republican Gov. Greg Abbott within arm's reach — never letting him lead by more than a few points.
However, two new polls disagree on whether that's still true, and the answer may decide how competitive the race really is.
A Sept. 15 poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. showed that Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is leading his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, by 7 points, 48% to 41%, with 8% of voters undecided.
The Mason-Dixon had a 4-point margin of error, with Libertarian Pat Dixon at 1% and Independent Jenn Mack Raphoon at 2%. It surveyed 625 registered Texas voters Sept. 8-10 who said they are likely to vote in the November 2026 election.
The poll follows
a Sept. 13 poll from SoCal Strategies that showed Abbott still in a strong position in his bid for a fourth term, leading Hinojosa 52% to 44%.
"Gov. Abbott still seems poised to win re-election," the poll's analysis read. "Though his margin has narrowed from our last survey, which had him up 12, he still leads Gina Hinojosa by 8%."
The SoCal poll showed that the movement was among independent voters, who now break for Hinojosa after Abbott had a 50% to 40% lead among them in a June survey.
Abbott has also collapsed with Hispanic voters, but he offsets this with a sizable 34% lead among white voters in the SoCal poll.
These two polls were released after a N+ Univision Sept. 9 poll that showed the two tied as the Republicans convened in Texas for their first midterm convention.
Recent Texas governor's race polling
A N+ Univision Sept. 9 poll showed Abbott and Hinojosa tied at 47%, with 5% undecided.
The N+ Univision follows a Texas Public Opinion Research Aug. 27 poll that showed Abbott pulling further ahead of Hinojosa, 49% to 42% with 6% undecided.
Last month, the Cook Political Reporton Aug. 20 moved the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" for several reasons.
But the report said it would adjust its findings as the race enters the final stretch to Election Day and once Abbott starts using attack ads to define Hinojosa — who the polls still show Texas voters are trying to get to know.
These two polls follow a summer of polls that showed the race between the two had been within the single digits:
- Texas Politics Project (Aug. 25): 45% Abbott, Hinojosa 40%.
- Texas Pulse (Aug. 7): Abbott 46%, Hinojosa 45%.
- Texas Southern University (Aug. 4): Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 43%.
- Texas Public Opinion Research (July 28): Abbott 45%, Hinojosa 42%.
- New York Times(June 30): Abbott 51%, Hinojosa 44%.
- Texas Politics Project (June 22): Abbott 47%, 40%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New polls disagree on how close 2026 Texas governor's race really is
