Last week, there was some panic around Kyren Williams, Jaylen Warren, A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty remains a PPR cheat code despite historically bad rushing efficiency. There's no need to panic on Williams and Warren going forward, but it seems I was right to ring the alarm on both Brown and Wilson fantasy football.
I won't highlight Brown and Wilson again (that's no fun), but I will give you five new names who underperformed in Week 7. Some of these guys you should panic on, and others you shouldn't. That's my job to help sift through the noise.
As a reminder, this article will highlight the duds from the previous week. I'll provide a score (0-5) on the panic meter. Zero means no panic whatsoever, while five means alarm
bells are going off. Let's see who's on the panic meter heading into Week 8.
Week 8 Panic Meter
Nico Collins - WR, Houston Texans
Panic Meter: 3/5
In two games since Marvin Harrison Jr. joined the Texans, Collins has averaged just 2.5 catches for 40 yards on five targets per game. That has come on a 70% snap share. Meanwhile, Harrison has eight targets on just a 20% snap share.
In three games without Harrison, Collins earned a 23.3% target share and 26.9% first read target share. Since then, just a 14.5% target share and 20% first read target share (per Fantasy Points Data). And it's not just Harrison's presence. Jaylin Noel has stepped up, and Tank Dell even returned in Week 7, playing football for the first time in nearly two years.
Noel suffered a toe injury this weekend, but Dell's return and Harrison's inevitable increase in snap share should have Collins fantasy managers at least a little concerned on the other side of the Texans' Week 8 bye.
Justin Jefferson - WR, Minnesota Vikings
Panic Meter: 1/5
Jefferson has played four full games this season. In those four games, he's averaging 5.3 catches for 67.5 yards on 7.3 targets per game. That's decent, but it's not what we've come to expect from Jefferson.
Regardless, he's still been good from an efficiency and target-earning perspective. In those four games, Jefferson is averaging the sixth highest target share (28.6%) and first read target share (36.8%). Kyler Murray is looking his way early and often. The issue, however, is that Murray is averaging just 198.5 passing yards on 30 attempts per game.
The Vikings defense is also elite. They're now 6-0 in a tough NFC North and are allowing just 12.3 points per game. The only reason the panic is a 1/5 on the panic meter is because of Murray's flaws as a passer and the state of the defense. However, Murray might have to throw more in the coming month with games against Detroit, Buffalo, Green Bay, San Francisco, and Atlanta.
If anything, you should be sending out trade offers for Jefferson before this next stretch of games.
Derrick Henry - RB, Baltimore Ravens
Panic Meter: 1/5
Henry has now scored fewer than six fantasy points in each of his last two games. He's now played three consecutive games with Tyler Huntley under center and hasn't scored a rushing touchdown in any of them. In those three games, King Henry is averaging 68.3 rushing yards on 19.3 carries per game (just 3.5 yards per carry).
So, it must be better with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, right? From a production standpoint, yes, since the Ravens offense is much better when Lamar plays. However, he's still averaging just 4.2 yards per carry in four games with Jackson. His 3.94 yards per carry in seven games would be by far a career low.
Luckily, Jackson should be back in the saddle for Week 8, which could put all Henry concerns to bed. With Lamar, he was averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game. With Huntley, that's dropped to just 10.6. Maybe he's starting to slow down at 33 years old, but let's not get too carried away here. Just a 1/5 on the panic meter for King Henry heading into Week 8 with Jackson back.
Chris Olave - WR, New Orleans Saints
Panic Meter: 2/5
Olave started the season white hot! He produced 100+ yards in three of his first four games and averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game. It looked like he was a league winner. But in his last three games, Olave is averaging just 48.3 yards and 11.5 fantasy points per game.
The targets have also gone way down. He's gone from 12 targets per game in his first four to just 7.7 in his last three. The competition has been stiffer (Vikings and Steelers in particular), but the drop-off has been significant enough to elicit at least a little panic. Not to mention Olave has been out-targeted by both Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson inside the 10-yard line this season.
And if that weren't enough, rookie first-rounder Jordyn Tyson appears poised to make his return on the other side of the Saints' Week 8 bye. Olave is still WR1 by a good margin, but the competition for high-value targets is a real thorn in his side.
Chase Brown - RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Panic Meter: 3/5
Brown split work with Samaje Perine heading into the Bengals' bye in Week 6. So, naturally, some people expected a near split between the two coming out of the bye in Week 7. That wasn't the case. Brown saw an 80% RB opportunity share on 75% of the snaps before Tahj Brooks entered the game late.
The problem for Brown, however, is that Perine stole the touchdown. For the season, Perine now has two touchdowns to just one for Brown. Through six games, Brown has just two more red zone carries than Perine (11 vs. 9).
Just like Ashton Jeanty, Brown's fantasy value has been propped up by his role in the passing game, averaging 5.5 targets per game so far. That's good enough to give him a safe floor in PPR leagues, but his efficiency (3.48 yards per carry) and workshare inside the red zone are a tough pill to swallow for those that drafted Brown in the second round this season.
Bonus names: Michael Wilson (3/5), Woody Marks (4/5), Jalen Coker (1/5), Josh Downs (5/5), Germie Bernard (2/5), Sam LaPorta (2/5)
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy football Week 8 panic meter: Nico Collins, Chase Brown and more
