In both college football and the NFL, preseason expectations have a way of falling by the wayside once the action gets started.
The 2027 NFL Draft figured to have a stronger sense of consensus around many of the top prospects, given how many established entities were returning to the college ranks for another season. Yet even before the midpoint of the campaign, significant shifts already appear to be underway. Several prospects have fallen well short of the trajectory many envisioned for them, while many more have boosted their profiles with strong showings.
Here's our latest NFL mock draft projection for 2027, using ESPN's current projections for average draft position to determine the first-round order:
2027 NFL mock draft
1. Miami Dolphins – Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
Could a wide receiver really go No. 1
overall for the first time in 31 years? With possibly the best pass-catching prospect of the century on the table, don't rule it out. Miami, or whoever lands here, might like the option of either grabbing the top quarterback or flipping the pick to a team desperate to solidify its outlook behind center. But with mixed results from the elite signal-callers, the most straightforward solution might be for the Dolphins to grab their hometown hero. Having already established himself as the unquestioned premier player in all of college football, Smith now figures to shift the complexion of whatever offense he joins next. In Miami, he'd allow for the staff to get a cleaner read on Malik Willis or be a focal point for a different long-term solution at the position.
2. Tennessee Titans – Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
In one of the most hyped quarterback classes in recent history, a former walk-on has risen to the top of the group. Mestemaker might make for a surprising QB1 candidate, but no passer has made a better case for themselves to be taken with a top-five pick than the North Texas transfer. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound passer possesses not only the aggressive mindset to seek out big plays downfield but also the arm strength and anticipation to actually deliver them. There's still more for him to prove as he gains more experience against a higher level of competition, but his impressive showings so far have provided enough reason to believe a player whom many had ticketed for 2028 could actually be one of the premier prospects next spring. Tennessee, of course, has gotten just 22 starts from No. 1 pick Cam Ward, and it could be difficult to pivot from a player for whom the franchise has done so little to support. But standing pat would also be hard for the Titans if Ward doesn't show some serious signs of growth before the end of his second season.
3. Arizona Cardinals – Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
After a season of spinning its wheels at quarterback, Arizona looks due for a serious investment behind center. Moore's projection might not be on stable ground after he followed up a shaky outing in a Week 2 loss with a concussion against USC. But as a precision passer who can easily find a rhythm and deliver touch throws, he's well-suited to take over as the triggerman for Mike LaFleur's attack.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Colin Simmons, DE/OLB, Texas
Another truncated yet hyper-productive edge rusher for Tampa Bay? Don't be swayed by Rueben Bain Jr.'s early struggles for the Buccaneers. Simmons might need to continue developing counters to thrive at the next level, but he's comfortable beating blockers in a variety of ways, thanks to his rapid burst and easy elasticity. With Bain and impending free agent YaYa Diaby coming up empty in generating any consistent pressure, the Buccaneers might need to take another big swing this offseason.
5. New York Jets – Arch Manning, QB, Texas
Yes, this is probably rich for a signal-caller who continues to confound with his decision-making. Whereas other quarterbacks have leveraged calculated aggression to boost their stocks, Manning has done significant damage to his own case with his out-of-whack risk tolerance, as well as his continued struggles with consistent ball placement. Still, it might be worth extending some grace to a passer who exhibited substantial growth last season after a similarly rocky start. If Manning rights the ship again, he'll be right back in the conversation of top prospects in this draft. The Jets are due to make a serious swing at some point to kick their steady build into high gear, and Manning might be an alluring gamble. But if his problems extend or worsen, he likely won't be given the benefit of the doubt anymore.
6. Los Angeles Chargers – Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
Setting things right for Justin Herbert and the rest of a dilapidated offense likely will entail a multipronged approach. Becker, however, might be the prospect other than Smith most capable of alleviating the ask on his quarterback. The 6-4, 208-pound target's knack for attacking defenses vertically would make him a fast favorite of Herbert, as would his penchant for coming down with contested catches.
7. New York Giants – Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
When Jaxson Dart returns from his season-ending knee injury, it sure would be nice to have another weapon waiting for him. Coleman would surely boost Big Blue's playmaking quotient while helping Dart feel more at ease when hanging in the pocket and getting deeper in his progressions. Able to be a threat at every level, the 6-3, 204-pound target is at his best when unleashing his considerable catch radius downfield.
8. Washington Commanders – Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
This might be the floor - or even below it - for a player with a strong claim as the premier defensive prospect in the draft. If Moore were available, though, the Commanders should be overjoyed. The shutdown corner would give a routinely overmatched secondary a chance to hold up against the likes of George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith and Malik Nabers.
9. Atlanta Falcons – Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
Given how Michael Penix Jr.'s return to the lineup has opened up Atlanta's offense, the Falcons might be drawn toward providing him with enhanced support rather than replacing him. One of the best ways to help the strong-armed signal-caller would be equipping him with better protection, as Penix has been one of the league's most efficient passers when kept clean and one of its worst when under pressure. Seaton has been sterling at safeguarding his quarterback throughout his college career, and his fluid footwork is still setting him apart from his peers as he faces a higher quality of competition after transferring from Colorado.
10. Jets (from Dallas Cowboys) – Will Echoles, DT, Mississippi
Since dealing away Quinnen Williams, the Jets' defensive line hasn't managed to make much noise. It would only be fitting, then, to use the top asset it received in the trade to pick up a defensive lineman capable of taking up Williams' mantle. Echoles has continued to distance himself from the rest of a deep group of defensive tackles, as his versatility and disruptiveness are unmatched in this class.
11. Houston Texans – Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas
Throwing various resources at the offensive line and run game has still left Houston well short of where it needs to be offensively. If the Texans get a shot at a lineman with Goosby's tools, it will be exceedingly difficult to look in a different direction. The 6-7, 325-pound blocker can create the kind of displacement in the run game that's long been absent from the attack, and he can help C.J. Stroud feel more at ease in letting downfield routes develop.
12. Cleveland Browns – Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Mississippi
In a vacuum, Chambliss belongs higher in the quarterback pecking order for this class. As a 6-0, 205-pound passer who will be 25 before his first NFL game, though, he figures to be a polarizing prospect. But Cleveland shouldn't turn up its nose at a player who looks capable of being the true catalyst that this young offense has sorely lacked. Todd Monken has an established track record of adapting to fit the proclivities of a unique playmaker, and he could get sizable returns from Chambliss both within the pocket and out of structure.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers – Ashton Hampton, CB, Clemson
Finding the kind of sturdy, strong-armed passer that Omar Khan and Mike McCarthy have traditionally gravitated toward might be difficult at this point in the draft. Rather than force the issue in finding an Aaron Rodgers successor, however, the Steelers can address another major point of concern in the cornerback spot left without a long-term solution following the Joey Porter Jr. trade. At 6-2 and 205 pounds, Hampton would be a fitting replacement for Porter as a corner who, despite not having prolific ball production, envelops opposing receivers in coverage.
14. Philadelphia Eagles – Dylan Stewart, DE/OLB, South Carolina
Howie Roseman might feel a strong pull toward repairing an offensive line that went to shambles in short order. But few NFL decision-makers have a better track record of maximizing value in the draft, and taking Stewart might amount to doing just that. The tremendously talented edge rusher might present a difficult case for evaluators after his team-issued suspension this season, but Roseman has good reason to believe he has the proper guardrails in place to allow a top-five prospect in this class to blossom.
15. New Orleans Saints – Yhonzae Pierre, OLB, Alabama
Chase Young's emergence has been a boon for a unit that's otherwise short on young talent. New Orleans might find a needed building block by bringing aboard Pierre. The 6-3, 251-pounder is surprisingly stout against the run for a player of his size, and his persistence pays off in his pass rush.
16. Las Vegas Raiders – Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana
Outside of the top 10, there might not be a better marriage of scheme and skill set than the harmony found in this pairing. Well-built yet twitchy, Marsh brings a bit of everything that the Raiders' receiving corps requires right now. His physicality and determination as a blocker make him particularly appealing for Klint Kubiak, who's searching for ways to jump-start a sputtering ground game.
17. Jets (from Indianapolis Colts) – Chris Cole, LB, Georgia
Few defensive players have stood out this season the way Cole has. Already an adept blitzer, the 6-3, 225-pound linebacker has taken his game to the next level as a rangy, hyperactive presence at the second level. That kind of playmaker sure would come in handy for New York, which could have Cole hone his instincts next to Demario Davis before tapping him as one of the defense's cornerstones.
18. Carolina Panthers – Trey'Dez Green, TE, LSU
With offensive coordinator Brad Idzik taking over play-calling duties, Carolina has seen Bryce Young flourish alongside a boom in its explosive-play rate. Adding Green could push the Panthers further along on that front. Pairing Tetairoa McMillan with a 6-7, 237-pound jump-ball fiend would leave defenses with all sorts of matchup problems, particularly in the red zone.
19. Detroit Lions – Ellis Robinson IV, CB, Georgia
Whether in free agency or the draft, Detroit has to take drastic steps to upgrade a woefully undermanned secondary. A former five-star recruit, Robinson offers the size and athleticism to hang in man coverage as well as the coverage instincts and ball skills to thrive in zone looks. The former five-star recruit might take some time to settle in as a pro, but he gives the defense some hope for holding up against top receivers in the long term.
20. Denver Broncos – Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida
The Bo Nix problem is glaring for Denver, but so too is the running game's inability to generate any explosive plays or even keep the attack on schedule. Baugh could be a transformative figure on both fronts. A proven bell-cow back at 6-1 and 225 pounds, he's shown a heightened aptitude for creating yards for himself by snaking past would-be tacklers. If the Broncos need more of a boost than fourth-round rookie Jonah Coleman can provide upon his return from injured reserve, Baugh could be what the offense needs to elevate its early-down outlook.
21. New England Patriots – KJ Bolden, S, Georgia
While New England has gotten by with Kevin Byard as a stopgap solution on the back end, the defense still looks due for some cornerstones down the middle. Bolden is extremely versatile in coverage and can find the ball in a hurry, qualities that make him an enticing option for a group that has to counter Josh Allen for years to come.
22. Cincinnati Bengals – Kelley Jones, CB, Mississippi State
Both DJ Turner II and Dax Hill remain on track to hit the open market after this season, leaving the Bengals in a bind. If Cincinnati opts to undergo a reshaping of its secondary, Jones could step in to help fill a void. At 6-4 and 205 pounds, he offers the top-tier size, length and athleticism that Duke Tobin and the rest of the organization have put a premium on when hunting for talent in the draft.
23. Minnesota Vikings – CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
Kevin O'Connell and Co. might rightfully be apprehensive about rolling the dice on another young quarterback after the J.J. McCarthy misfire. But re-signing Kyler Murray to a much pricier contract might be difficult to stomach if the league's sixth-worst offense by EPA per play doesn't pick things up soon. Carr profiles as the kind of savvy and quick-processing passer who could endear himself to O'Connell in the early going.
24. Browns (from Los Angeles Rams) – Greg Johnson, G, Minnesota
Cleveland has thrown plenty of resources toward overhauling its offensive line. The eight-sack outing against the Jets suggests that the effort is far from complete. A towering blocker at 6-6 and 325 pounds, Johnson has looked at home whether at guard or center. Beyond what he can offer as a stout and reliable pass protector, Johnson would be a major asset in getting the rushing attack off the ground floor.
25. Seattle Seahawks – Devan Thompkins, DE, Alabama
With DeMarcus Lawrence retiring and Uchenna Nwosu in the final year of his contract, the Seahawks might need to reload their edge rush this offseason. After four seasons at USC, Thompkins has been a revelation in his first season at Alabama. Listed at 6-5 and 300 pounds, the former defensive tackle and high school basketball standout might require some creative usage to get the most out of his considerable athleticism. That shouldn't be a problem for Mike Macdonald, though.
26. Dallas Cowboys – A'Mauri Washington, DT, Oregon
A secondary that continues to short-circuit might take priority here, especially if the Joey Porter Jr. move doesn't pan out. But selecting Washington might aid the defense in blowing up plays before they can truly get started. A surprisingly nimble mover for a 6-3, 319-pounder, Washington has the kind of head-turning big-man athleticism that Jerry Jones could find hard to resist.
27. Baltimore Ravens – Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
Mark Andrews' Week 5 woes further drove home the importance of charting a new course at tight end. As an inline option who thrives working over the middle, Johnson sizes up as a nearly ideal fit for offensive coordinator Declan Doyle's scheme. He hasn't enjoyed the star turn that some expected after Kenyon Sadiq's departure, but a solid finish to the season could help solidify his first-round credentials.
28. Buffalo Bills – Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, LB, Notre Dame
Patching the hole at cornerback might be the more pressing priority for Buffalo. Given the available talent at this point, however, the Bills could gravitate toward addressing another defensive deficiency. Viliamu-Asa's injury history likely will complicate his draft projection, but it's rare to find linebackers who combine his extensive range with his comfort taking on and shedding blockers. That versatility would no doubt be appreciated by defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, who could leverage more athleticism over the middle into more stability for what's been a rocky transition to a new scheme.
29. Chicago Bears – David Stone, DT, Oklahoma
After dealing away Gervon Dexter Sr. and relying on 33-year-old Grady Jarrett to hold down the interior, Chicago looks ready for a new day along its defensive line. Stone still runs hot and cold with his contributions, but defensive coordinator Dennis Allen might be just the right figure to mold a defensive tackle who not only can regularly make his way into the backfield but also finish plays there.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars – Justin Scott, DT, Miami (Fla.)
Though Jacksonville is set on the edge with cornerstones Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, the long-term outlook is considerably less certain on the inside, where starters Arik Armstead and DaVon Hamilton are poised to be free agents after this season. A powerful and explosive presence, Scott commands plenty of attention. He can dent pockets and stuff the run as he continues to grow as a pass rusher.
31. Kansas City Chiefs – Deuce Alexander, WR, Mississippi
Here's the pass catcher Patrick Mahomes has long been waiting for. Not only does Alexander have more than enough speed to force defenses to respect his vertical threat, but he's also a sure-handed threat who can pick up major yards after the catch. That makes him a highly desirable piece for an offense that has opened up considerably this year but still needs someone on the perimeter capable of providing a spark.
32. San Francisco 49ers – Kingston Lopa, S, Cal
Cornerback Renardo Green has made substantial strides this season, but additional upgrades on the back end would accelerate the growth of this unit. As the Football Bowl Subdivision leader in interceptions with five, the 6-5, 210-pound Lopa possesses a playmaking prowess that was absent from San Francisco's secondary in previous years.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2027 NFL mock draft: How far does Arch Manning fall?
