Last week, we nailed the Jonathan Taylor fade as he failed to reach five fantasy points against the Jaguars. I'm determined to get our bold calls right once again, as we continue to study the matchups and the data behind them.
This week, while we only have two byes to contend with (Steelers, Titans), fantasy managers have been hit with a litany of quarterback injuries and/or changes in starters (Ravens, Vikings, Seahawks, Cardinals, Eagles).
Every week, I'll continue to identify and write up players that are not obviously starts or sits. Regardless of matchup, you're starting someone like Puka Nacua every week, so I try to go a few layers deeper than your early-round fantasy studs.
Note: Projections refer to player props in the betting and prediction
markets, which are a valuable reference tool for anyone playing fantasy football.
Best Week 9 fantasy football matchups
Malik Willis vs. the Lions
Willis' play has improved as the season has moved along. He's now thrown for over 200 yards and multiple passing touchdowns in back-to-back contests. The Dolphins' skill position groups are not inspiring, though they're deep enough to look like passable units at this stage.
The main reason for optimism, though, is the matchup against Detroit. Quarterbacks average 6.5 more fantasy points per game against Detroit than expected, throwing for 298 yards per game and nearly three passing touchdowns per game.
The Lions have also struggled to stop mobile quarterbacks, and the loss of Jack Campbell to a scary neck injury in Week 8 certainly won't help their chances of keeping Willis' legs in check.
Consider Willis a fringe top-12 fantasy option given the matchup.
Jonah Coleman at the Panthers
The Panthers are a top-three matchup for running backs after adjusting for opponents faced. The counting stats are impressive, too, as running backs have now scored 11 touchdowns in just seven games against Carolina.
In Week 9, Coleman monopolized the high value touches that lead to fantasy points. Coleman handled all four of the team's goal line carries and also received all four of the team's running back targets. His total yardage prop for Week 9 is over 80 yards, as well − another sign that the masses believe Coleman has already iced veteran JK Dobbins.
The Panthers have come back to earth after a surprising first month of the season and are currently home underdogs against the Broncos. Expect game script and the touches to be there for Coleman, who is a top-15 fantasy option this week.
Justin Jefferson vs. the Bills
The Bills have struggled against outside receivers this year, presenting Jefferson with the second-best matchup of Week 9. Jefferson is the WR29 in fantasy points per game right now, so I understand why most readers will be skeptical initially.
However, Carson Wentz is expected to draw the start this week, and he's a far better fit for Jefferson and his skill set. In Week 1, Jefferson had his best game of the year with Wentz, catching eight passes for 92 yards and two scores.
The Bills (3.5-point favorites with a 45.5-point game total) should put up enough points on the Vikings to force Wentz and company to drop back and pass 30-plus times.
Hold your nose and consider Jefferson a top-12 option this week.
Greg Dulcich vs. the Lions
The Lions are currently allowing a ludicrous nine catches, 98 yards and more than 1.5 touchdowns per game to the tight end position. All three of those marks lead the league by a decent margin.
Even after adjusting for the Lions' schedule, they're still allowing 11.3 more fantasy points per game than expected to opposing tight ends.
Dulcich in his own right has been solid, averaging over four catches and 55 yards per game over his past three contests. For those in a pinch at tight end, Dulcich should be a high floor streamer with a promising ceiling in Week 9.
Terrance Ferguson at the Commanders
Ferguson started practicing Wednesday, though we don't know yet if he'll be activated off Injured Reserve. Consider this a crystal ball lookahead (if he plays) and please ignore this write-up if Ferguson is held out until Week 10.
The Rams really, really need a second option to emerge alongside Puka Nacua now that Davante Adams is on Injured Reserve.
After the Lions, the Commanders are the next-best matchup for fantasy tight ends, and Ferguson most recently caught six of nine targets for 54 yards and a score in his last healthy game.
Matthew Stafford is the king-maker in fantasy football, and Ferguson is a top-12 option in Week 9 if he plays.
Worst Week 9 fantasy football matchups
Drake Maye vs. the Packers
Right now, I'm assuming AJ Brown (knee) won't play. Hunter Henry also looks likely to miss this matchup, and Romeo Doubs is on Injured Reserve already.
The Patriots are thin at pass-catcher and the Packers' defense is beginning to hit its stride. They are now top-five in quarterback pressure rate and have an extra three days of rest after beating the Panthers on Thursday night last week.
Maye struggled against a much-inferior Dolphins defense last week, failing to eclipse 200 passing yards. While Maye isn't a sit necessarily, there are eight quarterbacks I'd rather start this week (Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Wiliams, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes).
Stefon Diggs vs. the Rams
The Rams have locked down the slot this year. While cornerback Jaylen Watson's season-ending shoulder injury affects the Rams defense overall, I'm anticipating that Antonio Williams and Treylon Burks are the primary beneficiaries as a result.
Diggs' role really hasn't changed much with Terry McLaurin out for the season. To-date, the veteran Diggs has gotten by in fantasy football through touchdowns. He's caught five through six games played, which has hidden his concerning 42 receiving yards per game.
Only one receiver has reached 40 slot yards against the Rams this year, and Diggs' touchdown odds are just 33% in betting markets. Put another way, Vegas isn't buying that Diggs' touchdown rate this year is sustainable.
Diggs is in the fantasy WR3 conversation this week due to the tough matchup.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 7 best and worst fantasy football matchups for Week 9
