The 2026 WNBA Finals between the Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream will likely be a defensive masterclass. One team will win its first WNBA title.
"It's definitely going to be a mental battle because I think we're both teams that like to play at 100 percent," said Valkyries All-Star Gabby Williams, who helped Golden State reach its first WNBA Finals in franchise history.
The Valkyries have the top-ranked defense throughout the regular season, allowing opponents a league-low 75.1 points per game. The Dream has the best defensive rating of the postseason, averaging 10.4 steals per game.
"Whatever is happening on the other end, our defense never fails us," Dream guard Rhyne Howard said. "We have to get in the passing lanes. We have to force
turnovers. We have to get on transition. We have to make our presence felt on the defensive end. That's going to give us the confidence to go."
How do the Valkyries and Dream stack up? The WNBA Finals begin on Oct. 17 when Game 1 tips off in San Francisco. USA TODAY Sports is rounding up what each team brings to the championship series:
No. 4 seed Atlanta Dream vs. No. 2 seed Golden State Valkyries
Atlanta Dream (30-14, 5-0)
Odds: -1.15
Biggest postseason strength: The Dream can turn teams over at a high clip. Jordin Canada, Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray all averaging more than two turnovers a game in the postseason. Angel Reese is adding 2.3 blocks.
Atlanta does a good job pressuring the ball and cutting off passing lanes while causing disruption and speeding teams up. Frankly, Atlanta causes all-out mayhem, forcing teams to play outside their identity.
"Our defense, man, whatever is happening on the other end, our defense never fails us," Dream guard Rhyne Howard said. "We definitely showed that throughout the series. We definitely showed this throughout the season. And so I'm just happy that we're finally making it. This is a dream come true, not only for me, but for the rest of my teammates."
Biggest area for improvement: The Dream cannot get into the habit of forcing shots. The ball has to move. When the ball moves, good things happen for Atlanta. A stagnant offense at any point against Golden State spells trouble. The Valkyries thrive on wearing teams down, becoming stingier along the way.
Stat to know: The Dream are 12-0 when Angel Reese makes at least one 3-pointer. Atlanta is also 5-0 when Reese scores at least 15 points in the first half.
X-factor: It probably feels strange to list a starter here, but how the Dream come out of this series could hinge on the production of Jordin Canada. The veteran guard is averaging 19.2 points, 8.8 assists and 2.2 steals. Can she keep it up against the Valkyries?
Finals outlook: Golden State won the regular-season series 3-0 against Atlanta. The Dream will likely want that back on the league's highest stage. However, it could take more losses to the Valkyries to get it done and win it all. Atlanta hasn't lost since August 30th. The Dream are 10-0, dating back to the regular season. Golden State will look to end their streak after sweeping the reigning champion Las Vegas Aces to get to the Finals. How will Atlanta respond to a loss?
Golden State Valkyries (32-12, 5-1)
Odds: -1.05
Biggest postseason strength: They say defense wins championships, but the Valkyries pair their strength on that side of the ball with stifling depth that allows any player to go off at any time.Despite Golden State’s star Gabby Williams going quiet with just four points in the first three quarters in the close-out Game 3 against the Aces, she said she “wasn’t worried.” The Valkyries got contributions from the entire team, which allowed her to get involved in overtime, where she scored eight points.
“Our depth is a lot of what — knock on wood — allowed us to stay healthy and fresh. I know I feel really good, especially compared to how I felt at the end of last season,” Williams said.
Even Hammon felt the impact of their many scoring options.
“They really play great team ball. On any given night, any of them can have 15, 20 on them, because they share the ball,” Aces coach Becky Hammon said. “It just seems like nobody cares who gets the credit.”
Biggest area for improvement: “Consistency is key,” Valkyries coach Natalie Nakase said.
For Golden State, consistency was an issue throughout the series against the Aces. Despite leading by 17 in the third quarter of Game 2, the Aces were able to reach a lead in the final 90 seconds and almost steal a game in the Bay Area. With the Finals on the line, the Valkyries gave up some key turnovers late that allowed the Aces to push the game to overtime.
For Nakase, it was about effort.
“I saw another level of fight tonight. And that's what I was really proud of,” Nakase said. “We talked about leveling up one more as a team, and I think that overtime proved ... We really left it all out there on the floor.”
Stat to know: The Valkyries held their opponents to a league-low 80.4 points per game in the postseason.
X-factor: An X-factor should have an unpredictable, intangible impact on a series and three-time WNBA champion Kiah Stokes matches that description perfectly. Averaging 9.3 rebounds per game in the postseason, tied for third-most in this postseason, Stokes could be key in the paint against the league’s top rebounder, Angel Reese. But Stokes has also shown offensive flashes. The starting Valkyries center scored her playoff high 11 points in the game that eliminated the Las Vegas Aces. Her season-high this year was against the Dream, with 13 points in a 78-75 win on Jun. 26. Could that be an indicator of how she’ll perform with the title on the line?
Finals outlook: The Valkyries swept the Dream in the regular season (77-66 on June 24, 78-75 on June 26 and 88-83 on July 4). That said, the teams have not played since well before the All-Star break.
“They're a great defensive team. They're physical. they rebound really well. They have great shooters,” Valkyries center Kiah Stokes said of the Dream. “We played them back in July. So they're probably a completely different team... It really doesn't matter going into the Finals. It’s a clean slate. Both teams are 0-0.”
How to watch the WNBA Finals
- Atlanta at Golden State, 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 17 (NBC)
- Atlanta at Golden State, 8 p.m. ET, Monday, Oct. 19 (USA, CNBC)
- Golden State at Atlanta, 8 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Oct. 21 (USA, CNBC)
- Golden State at Atlanta, 1 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 24 (NBC)
- Atlanta at Golden State, 8 p.m. ET, Monday, Oct. 26 (USA, CNBC)*
- Golden State at Atlanta, 8 p.m. ET, Thursday, Oct. 29 (USA, CNBC)*
- Atlanta at Golden State, 8 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 31 (USA, CNBC)*
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: WNBA Finals guide: Golden State Valkyries slight favorite over Atlanta Dream
