One month of a long NFL season hardly provides final answers, but it is no scant sample size in providing some revelations.
Go ahead, admit it. There’s no way you saw Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers sitting at 0-4 nearly a quarter into the season. And head straight to the store and buy a lottery ticket if you called the on-field turnaround story of Deshaun Watson.
But hey, things happen.
And they’ll keep happening in the topsy-turvy, unpredictably wild NFL. What seems evident in early October could morph into something long forgotten in mid-February.
Still, 30 days since the NFL kicked off the campaign with a Super Bowl rematch in Seattle – and with a significant omen as backup quarterback Drew Lock replaced an injured Sam Darnold – provides
an opportune marker for some recalibration.
NFL MVP could be a running back
What we thought we knew: The NFL’s MVP award always goes to a prolific quarterback.
What we know now: Quarterbacks have won the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award 13 consecutive years since running back Adrian Peterson, fueled by a 2,000-yard season, was the last non-quarterback to claim the honor in 2012. And in 17 of the past 18 years, MVP QBs it has been. So, who’s it going to be this time? San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, the league’s leading passer, merits consideration. And as long as they are healthy and winning, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are in play to add to their MVP collections. But maybe this is the year the streak gets snapped. Mahomes – the frontrunner for Comeback Player of the Year honors after his rapid return from two torn knee ligaments – might vote for his new running back, Kenneth Walker III, to follow up on his Super Bowl MVP award. Walker has juiced KC’s offense as a big-play weapon and is the NFL’s leading rusher (537 yards), with his league-high 621 yards from scrimmage just ahead of Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson (614). And Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs, tied for the NFL lead with seven TDs, is special, too. For all the talk that comes during the free agency period and runup to the draft about running back “value,” the MVP race might add another layer to the debate.
Rams defense disappoints
What we thought we knew: With Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett joining forces the Rams are destined for a Super Bowl crown.
What we know now: It’s far from over for the odds-on favorite Rams to win Super Bowl 61 in their home stadium, but the setback of Garrett’s knee surgery and Donald’s back issues since coming out of retirement are reminders how nothing is guaranteed – even if it seems too good to be true in putting two players with a collective five NFL Defensive Player of the Year awards on the field together. Of course, the Rams have so many other pieces (take a bow, Davonte Adams). Check back in January.
Justin Herbert-Mike McDaniel partnership turns disastrous
What we thought we knew: Justin Herbert will flourish with offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel.
What we know now: Not a good fit. McDaniel, who once fielded such a dazzling offense as Miami Dolphins coach, has not suddenly taken Herbert to another level. It’s been the opposite. Herbert, the gritty face of the Chargers, is having the worst season of his career under McDaniel, marked by career-low rates for completion percentage (59.7%) and passer rating (70.6) and a 4:6 TD-to-INT ratio. No, it doesn’t help that the Chargers’ bookend tackles, Rashawn Slater and John Alt, are battling injuries again. But so far, this has not been a good look.
Dallas' Super Bowl drought looks never-ending
What we thought we knew: With no offseason drama, this might finally be the year for the Dallas Cowboys.
What we know now: Well, maybe not. With a 30-year Super Bowl drought, Dallas doesn’t need drama to continually shoot itself in the foot. The investments made to overhaul the NFL’s worst defense – including the addition of new coordinator Christian Parker – were noble. But it will take time. See the loss to the previously winless Bucs on Thursday night. And consider the disjointed secondary. Fate has them playing in a division with other struggling teams, but winning the NFC East won’t matter against more formidable contenders elsewhere in the NFC.
Raiders rebuild suddenly ahead of schedule
What we thought we knew: With another new coach and Fernando Mendoza breaking in slowly, this isn’t the year the Raiders suddenly become competitive again.
What we know now: Look who’s 3-1. The impact of new coach Klint Kubiak – the 10th Raiders coach since 2011 – in transforming the NFL’s worst team last year is palatable. And there’s no knocking the conservative plan for Mendoza, the No. 1 pick overall. Kubiak’s star as risen so fast, and flanked by GM John Spytek (and with minority owner Tom Brady in the mix), the Raiders may have finally assembled a solid brain trust for the long haul after rolling through so many candidates. And with Mendoza learning from the sideline after winning a natty last year at Indiana, the addition of Kirk Cousins has been especially golden. At least for now. Cousins, tied with Purdy for the NFL lead with 11 TD passes, is playing light’s out.
Shedeur Sanders still waiting
What we thought we knew: Shedeur Sanders will supplant Deshaun Watson as the Browns starting quarterback by Week 3.
What we know now: Sanders, the so-called people’s choice, is still on the bench while Watson sparkles with his chance for on-field redemption. For all the projections that Sanders would crack the lineup for the home opener in Week 3 – remember how they booed Watson in preseason and he publicly lashed out in retaliation? – the Browns (3-1) are in first place. And Watson, healthy again, has led the Browns to three consecutive game-winning drives. And in the coming months the Browns could be faced with a decision on whether to sign him to an extension.
Davis Webb wasn't ready to step into Sean Payton's shoes
What we thought we knew: As the new play-caller, rising coach star Davis Webb will spark Bo Nix and the Broncos offense to a higher level.
What we know now: Despite not wanting to lose another young coach to the market, Sean Payton should have never given up the play-calling role that is his secret sauce. Webb, 31, still has a bright future and at the moment a tight bond with Nix that matters. But the results – Denver has scored an NFL-low 13 points in the first half – didn’t give Payton much choice but to take back the play-calling role. Yet this whole equation falls on Nix and a spotty running game leveling up if the Broncos are to get back to a championship hunt.
Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy still searching for magic
What we thought we knew: Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers will recreate magic with their reunion in Pittsburgh.
What we know now: After all their success in Green Bay, including a Super Bowl crown, it’s fitting that the new Steelers coach gets his old quarterback for one last ride. Tensions have been a bit thick at times during a 2-2 start to the season, even as they have apparently mellowed since their first go-round. As for the nuts and bolts of the football, the scheme is undoubtedly a better fit for Rodgers, who likely would not have returned if McCarthy weren’t the replacement for Mike Tomlin. The magic? Well, wait on it. Or else.
Bryce Young proving it
What we thought we knew: The Panthers need to see something special in a “prove-it” year from Bryce Young before signing him to a long-term extension.
What we know now: Young, in his fourth season since picked No. 1 overall, is having a breakout year to follow up on the NFC South crown in 2025. He leads the NFL with 1,268 yards (nine TDs, two INTs) and the connection with reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Tetairoa McMillan is so special. The next deal is coming. And as much as Young has been Drew Brees-esque in developing his game despite lacking prototype size, he is growing into a prototype leader for his team.
Texans elite defense disappears
What we thought we knew: The Texans will be a legit Super Bowl contender – if C.J. Stroud doesn’t undermine their elite defense.
What we know now: Stroud, the fourth-year quarterback who threw four interceptions in the AFC divisional playoff loss at New England in January, hasn’t been the issue during the 0-4 start. He’s making better decisions and hasn’t thrown a pick. But the defense? Ranked No. 1 last year, Houston is ranked 20th while failing to hold late fourth-quarter leads in three of the losses. Given the communication issues linked to blown coverages, it’s no wonder head coach DeMeco Ryans has taken over the play-calling duties.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What we got wrong before the NFL season – and what we've learned
