Pittsburgh could see heavy, wet snowfall this winter — and historic weather data suggests locals could spot snowflakes as early as this month.
While temperatures reached the low 80s during the start of the third week of October, cold weather is on the way. But how cold will it get this fall and winter? And when will it snow? Can Pittsburgh expect more or less snow than usual?
Here's what to know.
How much snow will Pittsburgh see this winter?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a winter that's warmer than average in Pittsburgh.
According to NOAA, the south and central parts of Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, will see a 40-50% chance of experiencing above-normal winter temperatures in December, January and February. The northern parts of the state will have a 50-60%
chance of above-normal temperatures.
While part of the state will likely have a wetter winter, Pittsburgh is just outside that zone and has equal chances of experiencing above- or below-average precipitation this winter.
The Farmers' Almanac predicts the Northeast could see a "complicated" weather pattern, with the potential for several rounds of heavy, wet snow in the inland areas, especially during January and February. Small changes in temperatures and where storms are expected to go will make the difference between whether or not rain, sleet, freezing rain or snow can be expected.
The average snowfall in Pittsburgh from December through February has varied widely depending on the year, from around an average of five inches per month to more than 13 inches per month, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. On average, Pittsburgh's snowfall from December through February comes in at about 8.24 inches.
When will Pittsburgh see snow? Could it snow in October?
Pittsburgh and much of the Ohio Valley will likely see its first accumulating snow between late November and December, according to the Farmer's Almanac. But there could be flurries before then.
Data from the National Weather Service shows that Pittsburgh sometimes sees snow as early as October, though the amount that falls is typically under an inch. Snowfall in November can vary widely — some years, the city has seen no snow all month, while in others, several inches have fallen. On average, Pittsburgh's November snowfall comes in at about 2.4 inches.
The record snowfall for November was set in 1950, when the city saw 32.3 inches of snow.
When will Pittsburgh see its first frost?
Pittsburgh will likely see its first frost by late October, with the almanac predicting the city is most likely to experience its first frost on Oct. 22. Most of Pennsylvania can expect its first frost within that same mid- to late-October timeframe, save for areas of the state near the Maryland and New Jersey borders, as well as the southernmost edge near the West Virginia border. Those parts will likely see their first frost sometime between late October to mid November.
Pittsburgh's average first frost day is Oct. 15, based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data, the almanac said.
How cold will it be this fall in Pittsburgh?
The average temperature in Pittsburgh from September through November typically ranges from 52–58 degrees Fahrenheit, though it occasionally dips slightly lower, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. The overall average for the three-month time period about 54.15.
How cold will it be this winter in Pittsburgh?
The average temperature in Pittsburgh from December through February typically hovers between the upper 20s to the mid to upper 30s Fahrenheit, with an overall average of 31.23 degrees, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
When is the first day of winter 2026?
Winter starts on Monday, Dec. 21, 2026. This marks the winter solstice, also known as astronomical winter, according to Old Farmer's Almanac.
How many days until winter 2026?
As of Oct. 14, 68 days remained until the first day of winter.
Finch Walker is the Pittsburgh Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Contact Walker at FWalker@usatodayco.com. Instagram: @finchwalker_. X: @_finchwalker.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Data says Pittsburgh may see snow, cold weather by Halloween
