What's Happening?
Iranian officials have expressed strong opposition to a US-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan that includes the development of a transit corridor through southern Armenia. This corridor, known as the Zangezur Corridor, would connect Azerbaijan to its exclave, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region, bypassing Iran. Iranian leaders view this as a strategic move by adversaries to undermine Iran's security and economic interests. The corridor would potentially sever Iran's land access to Russia and Europe, impacting its role as a regional transit hub. Iran has historically opposed the corridor, fearing it would limit its influence and economic leverage in the region.
Why It's Important?
The establishment of the Zangezur Corridor represents a significant geopolitical shift that could diminish Iran's regional influence. By bypassing Iran, the corridor could reduce Iran's political leverage and economic benefits from transit routes. This development comes at a time when Iran's ability to project power in its near abroad is perceived to be waning. The corridor could also enhance Turkey's influence in the region, further isolating Iran. Additionally, Azerbaijan's strengthening ties with Israel add to Iran's concerns, as Iran has accused Israel of using Azerbaijani territory for operations against Iran.
What's Next?
Iran is likely to continue diplomatic and possibly military efforts to prevent the establishment of the corridor. Iranian President Masoud Pezeskhian has warned Armenian leaders about foreign hegemonic goals, and Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission is discussing measures to block the corridor. Iran has previously conducted military exercises along the border to deter the corridor's development. The situation remains tense, with potential for further diplomatic and military maneuvers by Iran to protect its interests.
Beyond the Headlines
The proposed corridor could lead to long-term shifts in regional alliances and economic routes, potentially sidelining Iran in favor of Turkey and Azerbaijan. This could alter trade dynamics and influence power balances in the South Caucasus. The corridor's development might also impact Iran's relations with neighboring countries and its strategic partnerships, particularly with Russia.
