Armenia and Azerbaijan Leaders Attend White House Summit Without Signing Peace Treaty

What's Happening?

A summit held at the White House on August 8, involving Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, was initially reported as a peace signing ceremony mediated by President Trump. However, the event was largely ceremonial, with the leaders only initialing a declaration of intent rather than signing a formal peace treaty. The declaration emphasized the need for continued efforts towards peace and ratification of the agreement. The summit was part of ongoing negotiations since 2020, involving multiple international stakeholders, including Russia and the European Union. Despite the initialing, the actual signing of the treaty remains pending, with unresolved issues such as the dismantling of the OSCE Minsk Group and constitutional amendments in Armenia.

Why It's Important?

The summit highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus, where Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The involvement of President Trump and the U.S. underscores the strategic importance of the region and the shifting influence of global powers like Russia. The event also reflects the challenges in achieving lasting peace, as both countries have significant demands and unresolved issues. The summit's outcome could impact regional stability and international relations, particularly with Russia's waning influence and the potential for increased U.S. involvement.

What's Next?

The next steps involve further negotiations and potential constitutional amendments in Armenia. The OSCE foreign ministers are set to vote on dissolving the Minsk Group in December, which could be a significant development in the peace process. Additionally, Armenia's upcoming parliamentary elections in 2026 may influence the country's approach to the treaty and constitutional changes. The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for regional alliances and international diplomacy.

Beyond the Headlines

The summit's outcome may affect the socio-political landscape in Armenia and Azerbaijan, particularly regarding territorial integrity and the rights of displaced populations. The proposed 'Trump Route' for transportation links could alter regional trade dynamics and infrastructure development. The event also raises questions about the role of international mediators and the balance of power in the South Caucasus.