The Republican Lock of the 1990s
Entering the 1990s, New Hampshire was a state that consistently sent Republicans to the U.S. Senate. The decade began with Republican Bob Smith winning the open seat in 1990 to succeed the retiring Gordon J. Humphrey. Two years later, in 1992, then-Governor Judd Gregg, another Republican, won the state's other Senate seat. Throughout the decade, both Smith and Gregg held their ground. Smith won a close reelection in 1996 against Democrat Dick Swett. This period reflected a broader political reality: New Hampshire was, for most of the 20th century, a Yankee Republican stronghold that rarely strayed from the GOP in federal elections. The state's political identity was rooted in fiscal conservatism and a distrust of federal overreach, making it fertile
ground for Republican candidates.
A Political Earthquake in the 2000s
The new millennium marked the beginning of a profound shift. While Judd Gregg secured another term in 2004, the ground was rumbling. The first major tremor came in 2002, when Republican John E. Sununu defeated then-Governor Jeanne Shaheen in a hard-fought race. However, this victory was short-lived. In a 2008 rematch, Shaheen unseated Sununu, becoming the first Democrat elected to the Senate from New Hampshire since 1975. Her victory was not an isolated event; it signaled a fundamental change in the state's political landscape. The state that had once been reliably red was now turning purple, influenced by changing demographics and a national political environment that was trending away from the Bush-era Republican party.
The Democratic Women Take Over
The 2010s solidified New Hampshire's transition and established a new pattern: electing powerful female Democrats, often former governors, to the Senate. Jeanne Shaheen continued her winning streak, defeating Republican Scott Brown in 2014 and Corky Messner in 2020. She is the first New Hampshire Democrat to be elected to three full terms in the Senate. The most dramatic race of the decade was in 2016, when another former Democratic governor, Maggie Hassan, challenged incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte. In one of the closest Senate races in the country, Hassan won by just 1,017 votes, giving Democrats control of both of the state's Senate seats for the first time since the 1970s. Hassan secured her second term in 2022, defeating Don Bolduc. This created a unique political dynasty where two of the state's most successful governors now hold its two Senate seats.
What Explains the Shift?
New Hampshire's evolution from red to blue in its Senate races is a story of a state in transition. While it maintains the largest bloc of independent voters in the country, its federal election results have taken a clear Democratic turn. Since 2004, the state has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election. This shift can't be pinned on a single factor. Some scholars point to migration from more liberal neighboring states, though data suggests this is not the whole story. Others highlight the declining influence of the old-guard 'Yankee Republicans' and the rise of a more moderate, pragmatic electorate that is open to Democratic candidates, especially those with executive experience as governor. The result is a state that, despite its independent self-image, has created a solid Democratic firewall in the U.S. Senate over the last decade and a half.
