The Old Rhythm: Presidential Peaks and Midterm Troughs
For much of modern history, New Jersey's election turnout followed a predictable pattern: a surge of interest for presidential contests and a significant drop-off for midterm elections. This rhythm defined the 1990s and 2000s. Since 1992, New Jersey has reliably voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. Yet, this consistency at the top of the ticket didn't always translate to massive turnouts. The 2014 midterm, for instance, saw a turnout of just 36% of registered voters, one of the lowest marks this century. This reflects a period when federal elections, outside of the marquee presidential race, failed to capture widespread public attention. Turnout would spike for names like Clinton, Bush, and Obama, only to fall back to earth two years
later when control of Congress was on the line.
The Great Awakening: 2018 and 2020
The political landscape shifted dramatically in the late 2010s, and New Jersey's turnout numbers followed suit. The 2018 midterm election was a major turning point. Fueled by strong anti-Trump sentiments, turnout soared to 55% of registered voters, a high-water mark for a midterm election in the state and a stunning increase from previous cycles. This wasn't just a statistical blip; it was a political earthquake that saw Democrats flip two Republican congressional seats. The momentum continued into 2020. Amid a global pandemic and one of the most polarizing presidential races in American history, New Jersey implemented widespread mail-in voting, sending a ballot to every registered voter. The result was the state's highest turnout in recent memory, with nearly 72% of registered voters and over 4.6 million people casting a ballot. It seemed a new era of voter engagement had arrived.
A Step Back: The 2022 and 2024 Elections
After the historic highs of 2018 and 2020, the question was whether this intense level of engagement was the new normal. The answer, so far, is complicated. The 2022 midterm election saw turnout fall back to 41%, a significant drop from 2018 and closer to the old midterm pattern. Then came the 2024 presidential election. While it was the first time New Jersey voters could participate in early in-person voting for a presidential contest, the overall energy didn't match 2020. Final numbers show about 67.2% of eligible voters participated, a figure lower than 2020's peak but still higher than in 2016. Over 4.3 million people voted, which was about 7% fewer than four years prior. While still a robust figure historically, the decline from 2020 suggests that the unique circumstances of that election created a turnout ceiling that has yet to be reached again.
What Drives the New Jersey Voter?
Looking at the 34-year trend, it's clear that high-stakes, personality-driven presidential races are the single biggest driver of voter participation in the Garden State. While New Jersey has been a reliable 'blue state' at the presidential level since 1992, the margin of victory has recently tightened. In 2024, the Democratic margin of victory was the narrowest since 2004, suggesting a more competitive environment that could drive future engagement. Furthermore, changes in voting laws, particularly the expansion of mail-in and early voting options, have fundamentally altered how and when people vote, even if they don't always increase the total number of voters. Midterm elections continue to be a challenge for turnout, but the exceptional spike in 2018 shows that when the perceived stakes are high enough, New Jerseyans will turn out in force, regardless of the election type.
