The 1990s: A Tale of Two Parties
The 1990s in South Dakota were defined by ticket-splitting. Voters consistently sent Republicans to the governor's mansion while electing and re-electing Democrats to federal office. The decade began with Republican George S. Mickelson winning re-election as governor in the 1990 midterm. That same year, the state's lone congressman, Democrat Tim Johnson, and Republican Senator Larry Pressler also won their races. This pattern held through the 1994 and 1998 midterms. While Republicans like Bill Janklow held the governorship, Democrats Tom Daschle and Tim Johnson built formidable careers in Washington. Johnson won his House seat again in 1994 before successfully challenging Pressler for his Senate seat in 1996. Daschle, already in the Senate,
was re-elected in 1998 and rose to become the Senate Democratic Leader. This era showcased a state comfortable with divided government, where moderate, agriculture-focused Democrats could thrive alongside state-level Republicans.
The 2000s: The Republican Ascent Begins
The new millennium marked the beginning of a seismic shift. The 2002 midterm was a flashpoint. In a race that captured national attention, Democratic Senator Tim Johnson narrowly survived a challenge from Republican Congressman John Thune, winning by just 524 votes. It was one of the closest Senate races in the country that year. While Democrats held on there, the GOP was making inroads. Republican Mike Rounds won the governorship, continuing the party's long-standing hold on that office. The most significant blow to South Dakota Democrats came two years later, in 2004, when Thune defeated Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, a titan of national politics. This victory signaled a fundamental change in the electorate. The 2006 and 2008 elections saw Democrats like Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (in the House) and Tim Johnson (in the Senate) win, but the ground was undeniably shifting beneath them. The state was on a clear trajectory from purple to red.
The 2010s: The Red Tide Solidifies
The 2010 midterm elections were the nail in the coffin for the Democratic party's statewide competitiveness. In a sign of the Tea Party wave sweeping the nation, state representative Kristi Noem defeated incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Meanwhile, John Thune was re-elected to the Senate without opposition, a rare feat demonstrating his immense popularity. By the 2014 midterm, the transformation was nearly complete. With Senator Tim Johnson's retirement, his open seat was won by former Governor Mike Rounds, giving Republicans control of both Senate seats for the first time in decades. In the 2018 midterms, Kristi Noem was elected the state's first female governor in a close race, and Dusty Johnson took her place in the House. After the 2018 election, Republicans held the governorship and all three of South Dakota's seats in Congress, a dominance that would have seemed unlikely just 20 years prior.
2022 and Beyond: A Republican Stronghold
The 2022 midterm elections cemented South Dakota's status as a GOP bastion. Governor Kristi Noem and Senator John Thune both sailed to easy re-election victories, winning with over 60% and 70% of the vote, respectively. Congressman Dusty Johnson also won handily. The results were not just victories; they were a confirmation of a political identity. Tim Johnson remains the last Democrat to have held statewide or congressional office in South Dakota. The party's registration numbers have plummeted over the past two decades, while Republican registration has soared and the number of independents has grown. Political analysts point to a combination of factors for this shift, including national political polarization, the decline of the state's farm-labor coalition, and a powerful state Republican party that has successfully defined the political landscape.
