The Slow Rise of Convenience (2012–2018)
Before the pandemic, the move away from traditional Election Day voting was more of a gradual creep than a sudden sprint. Throughout the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, the share of Americans voting early, either in-person or by mail, was steadily growing. States like Oregon, Washington, and Colorado had already transitioned to all-mail elections, and others were increasingly offering 'no-excuse' absentee voting. By the 2016 election, about 40% of all ballots were cast before Election Day, a significant number but still a minority. This era was defined by a simple, non-partisan idea: convenience. Voters with difficult work schedules, childcare needs, or transportation issues found these options empowering. It was a slowly expanding feature
of the American electoral system, but it was far from the dominant method of voting.
2020: The Year Everything Changed
The COVID-19 pandemic was the ultimate catalyst. With public health warnings about large gatherings, voting in person on a crowded Election Day felt like a risk for millions. In response, states across the country scrambled to expand access to remote voting. The result was the most significant single-cycle change in voting behavior in modern American history. For the first time ever, a majority of voters cast their ballots before Election Day. In the 2020 presidential election, a staggering 69% of voters used mail-in ballots or early in-person voting. Mail voting led the charge, accounting for 43% of all votes cast, more than double its share in previous cycles. Early in-person voting also saw a jump to 26%. What was once a convenience became a perceived necessity, permanently altering the expectations of voters and the operations of election officials.
The Great Partisan Sort
The 2020 election didn't just change how many people voted by mail; it changed who voted by mail. The expansion of mail-in voting became a fiercely contested political issue. This created a deep partisan divide in voting methods that had not existed before. Democratic voters, influenced by messaging that encouraged voting safely from home, embraced mail-in ballots in record numbers. Conversely, many Republican voters, influenced by a counter-narrative that questioned the security of mail ballots, showed a strong preference for voting in person, particularly on Election Day itself. This 'blue shift' in mail ballots and 'red shift' on Election Day became a defining feature of the 2020 vote count, leading to days of uncertainty as mail-in ballots were tabulated. This partisan sorting of voting methods has persisted, becoming a strategic consideration for both parties in subsequent elections.
The New Normal: Voting in 2024
After the explosive shifts of 2020, the question was whether things would snap back. The 2024 presidential election provided a clear answer: no. While the historic peak of mail-in voting seen in 2020 receded slightly, the overall use of early and mail-in options remained far above any pre-pandemic level. The infrastructure and voter habits developed during the pandemic proved durable. Many voters who tried voting by mail for the first time in 2020 found they liked the convenience and stuck with it. The partisan divide also remained a key factor. Democrats continued to dominate mail-in and early voting returns, while Republicans maintained their preference for in-person voting on Election Day. The 'election season'—a period of weeks of voting, rather than a single day—is no longer a novelty. It's simply the way America votes now, representing a permanent transformation in the nation's democratic process.
