The Solid Red '90s
The decade began with the 1990 midterm, a cycle that required a runoff election for the governorship after no candidate secured a majority. Republican Fife Symington ultimately defeated Democrat Terry Goddard. That same year, however, Democrats managed to flip the state Senate, gaining four seats to take a narrow 17-13 majority. But this was a brief interruption in an otherwise dominant GOP era. The 1994 midterms, part of a national Republican wave, cemented the GOP's power. Symington easily won re-election against Democrat Eddie Basha. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Jon Kyl won the open seat vacated by a retiring Democrat, a victory that marked the beginning of a long GOP hold on that seat. By the 1998 midterms, Republican control was firm.
Jane Dee Hull, who had succeeded Symington after his resignation, won the governorship in a landslide, and Senator John McCain was overwhelmingly re-elected.
First Cracks in the Armor: The 2000s
The new millennium brought the first significant signs that Arizona's political landscape was capable of shifting. In the 2002 midterms, while Republicans gained control of the state Senate, a major upset occurred in the gubernatorial race. Democrat Janet Napolitano, then the state's Attorney General, narrowly defeated Republican Matt Salmon, becoming the state's first Democratic governor elected since the 1980s. Her success continued in the 2006 midterms, where she won re-election in a landslide, carrying every single county in the state. This demonstrated a growing Democratic appeal, particularly with moderate and independent voters. Still, the state was far from purple. In that same 2006 election, Republican Senator Jon Kyl comfortably won re-election, showcasing the GOP's enduring strength at the federal level.
The Tea Party Wave and SB 1070
The 2010 midterms were a dramatic pendulum swing back to the right, fueled by national backlash to the Obama administration and a local firestorm over immigration. The passage of Senate Bill 1070, a controversial immigration enforcement law, galvanized conservative voters. Jan Brewer, who had ascended to the governorship after Napolitano joined the Obama cabinet, won a full term by a wide margin. Republicans also made significant gains in the state legislature and Senator John McCain, facing a primary challenge from the right, adopted a more conservative posture and easily won re-election. The 2010 results seemed to erase Democratic gains, re-establishing Arizona as a deep-red state. This election was a high-water mark for a specific brand of hardline conservatism that would, in the long run, alienate a growing segment of the electorate.
The Slow Thaw to Purple
The 2014 midterms were a relatively stable affair, with Republican Doug Ducey winning the governorship and the GOP maintaining control of the legislature, suggesting the state's red hue was still dominant. But the ground was shifting underneath. Demographic changes, especially a growing Latino population and an influx of new residents from blue states, were changing the electorate. The 2018 midterms were the tipping point. While Governor Ducey won re-election, the 'blue wave' arrived in Arizona. In a landmark victory, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated Republican Martha McSally for a U.S. Senate seat, the first time a Democrat had won a Senate race in Arizona in 30 years. Democrats also captured other statewide offices, including Secretary of State, signaling that the era of GOP dominance was officially over.
The Battleground Solidified: 2022
By the 2022 midterms, Arizona's status as a premier battleground state was undeniable. The elections were defined by razor-thin margins and intense national focus. In the top-ticket races, Democrats scored major victories. Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Kari Lake for governor, and Senator Mark Kelly won a full term against Blake Masters. These wins confirmed that the Democratic coalition of suburban moderates, young voters, and a highly engaged Latino base could deliver victories at the highest level. However, Republicans were not shut out, winning other statewide races and maintaining a slim majority in the state legislature. The split-ticket results painted the clearest picture yet of a deeply divided, 50-50 state where every election is a fight to the finish.
