The Predictable Rhythm of Turnout
Like most of the country, Alaska's voter turnout follows a basic, predictable rhythm: more people show up for presidential elections than for midterms. This pattern holds true for the entire period from 2010 to 2024. For instance, the 2010 midterm saw a turnout of around 53% of eligible voters, which then jumped to nearly 59% for the 2012 presidential election. This cycle repeated itself with turnout dropping for the 2014 midterm before climbing again in the 2016 presidential race. This ebb and flow is the baseline for understanding voter engagement. Presidential years, with their high-profile national campaigns, naturally draw more attention and participation. Midterm elections, which often focus on statewide and local races, historically struggle
to generate the same level of enthusiasm, leading to a smaller, often more politically engaged, electorate.
High-Stakes Elections and Surging Participation
While the presidential-midterm cycle is the baseline, certain years smashed expectations. The 2020 general election stands out, with a remarkable 68.4% turnout of eligible voters. This surge wasn't just about the presidential race; it also coincided with a contentious U.S. Senate contest and, crucially, the ballot measure that would ultimately overhaul Alaska's entire election system. That measure proposed a top-four nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice voting for general elections, a significant departure from the norm that generated intense debate and voter interest. Similarly, the 2018 midterm turnout of 54.8% was robust for a non-presidential year, suggesting that specific state-level races and the national political climate can significantly energize voters beyond typical patterns.
A New System: The Ranked-Choice Experiment
In 2020, Alaskans voted to adopt a radical new system: open primaries where the top four vote-getters advance, followed by a general election using ranked-choice voting (RCV). The first test of this system came in 2022. The result was a turnout of just over 50%, a noticeable drop from the previous midterm in 2018 and one of the lower turnouts of the period. Detractors claimed the new system was confusing and suppressed votes. However, supporters argue it's not that simple, pointing out that midterm turnout also dropped nationally between 2018 and 2022. The 2022 election cycle in Alaska was also complicated by a special election to fill a congressional seat, which may have led to voter fatigue. The new system was designed to reward candidates with broader appeal and reduce political polarization, goals that proponents say are being met, even if the impact on turnout itself is still debated.
Turnout in the RCV Era: 2024 and Beyond
The 2024 general election provided the second major test for ranked-choice voting. Turnout landed at approximately 63.6%, a healthy number for a presidential year, though slightly below the high-water mark of 2020. Analysts note this figure is consistent with historical presidential-year participation and doesn't suggest that RCV is either scaring voters away or dramatically increasing participation. The debate over the system's effect continues; some point to a very low primary turnout in 2024 as a sign of trouble, while others maintain the general election data proves voters are not intimidated by ranking their choices. What is clear is that the system has changed the state's political dynamics, enabling cross-partisan coalitions in the legislature and giving more prominence to independent candidates in a state where the majority of voters are not registered with a major party.
