What is the story about?
Precious metals have returned to focus after sharp profit-taking in gold and silver, followed by a quick rebound, raising questions over whether this move
is a technical pullback or the start of a deeper correction. On ET Now, Ajay Kedia, MD and Research Head at Kedia Commodities, analyses the technical setup and shares his 2026 outlook for gold, silver, crude oil, copper and base metals.
Volatility in precious metals market
On recent volatility in precious metals market, Kedia said, "I think volumes are very low right now because of the holiday mood and we can expect this kind of volatility in the market until January 5. Fundamentally, there are a few factors that investors have noted. First, the CME has raised margins on both gold and silver, which triggered some profit booking. Second, comments by Elon Musk, along with speculation that China may review its export policy for 2026, have raised concerns about global growth, leading to further profit-taking.""The rally in precious metals so far has been remarkable, and some profit booking was due, especially as the market was technically overbought. We had anticipated this correction -- similar to October, when silver fell 18 per cent and gold dropped 13 per cent. The sharp one-day fall has increased volatility and made traders cautious."
"For now, this appears to be a retracement in both domestic and international markets. Key fundamentals, such as the US Federal Reserve minutes, are awaited and could offer support, especially with interest rate cuts expected to continue in 2026. Clearer fundamentals should emerge after January 5," he added.
Target price
Predicting targets for the precious metal, Kedia said, "we have seen that even a single supportive factor can boost bullion prices, but in 2025 multiple factors have driven the rally. We do not expect 2026 to mirror what we saw in 2025. That said, gold could move up to around 4,815 internationally, roughly 12-15 per cent above current levels. However, a drawdown toward the 3,800 support level is also possible if ETF profit booking picks up and geopolitical tensions ease.""In the case of silver, we had earlier expected prices in the $75-80 range over the next couple of years, but that target was achieved within a single year. This suggests the possibility of a deeper correction toward the $60 level internationally. On the upside, silver could eventually move toward $85-90, though that is likely to take time," he added.
Oil market
Commenting on the oil prices, Kedia said, "We do not expect Brent to sustain levels below $59-60 or move meaningfully above $66-67 at this stage, as the market remains oversupplied. In 2025, US production and overall global output stayed elevated compared to demand. As a result, prices are likely to remain range-bound or slightly weak in the first quarter, unless a geopolitical event triggers a spike. Ongoing tensions involving the US, Venezuela, China-Taiwan or Russia-Ukraine could exert upward pressure."Overall, crude oil is expected to trade in the $58-66 range during the first three months of calendar year 2026. From the first quarter onward, prices may start finding support, but for now, $58-66 remains the expected range," he said.
