By Lisandra Paraguassu and Brendan O'Boyle
BRASILIA, Sept 29 (Reuters) - When Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva addressed the United Nations General Assembly in New York this month, he used one of the world's biggest diplomatic stages to deliver a message that has come to define what is likely the final presidential campaign of his decades-long career.
"Brazil does not fit into anyone's backyard," he said to applause, seeming to portray Sunday's vote in the largest Latin American country
as part of a wider battle against undemocratic forces as he warned of "foreign interference" in this year's race.
After a wave of right-wing election victories swept Latin America in recent years, aided by the return of an emboldened Trump administration in Washington, many progressives view his reelection bid against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, as a potential turning point that could help reverse the region's conservative drift.
Lula has sought to portray Senator Bolsonaro, whom he has called a "nobody" in campaign speeches, as a stand-in for a broader right-wing movement, sharing images linking the senator to Argentina's President Javier Milei, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and US President Donald Trump.
Yet Lula enters the campaign's closing stretch about even with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, running in place of his father, who was arrested for leading a failed coup after losing to Lula in 2022.
Despite success with falling inequality and unemployment, Lula's government still struggles with voter frustration with rising living costs, and it has not overcome the polarization that has gripped the country for nearly a decade.
The international interest in the race was evident during Lula's New York visit, where he met US progressives, Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senator Bernie Sanders. Latin American social media users have also been following the campaign intensely.
“There is a perception among international observers that Brazil is not merely electing a president. Given the country’s influence, it is helping to determine which political camp will emerge stronger in the next phase of a global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism," said Paulo Abrao, executive director of the progressive think tank Washington Brazil Office.
One person close to the president said that several leaders who were at the UN told the Brazilian delegation that they "are watching us with concern about which Brazil we will have after these elections."
'AS LONG AS I AM ALIVE'
Lula's 2023 return to power capped a dramatic comeback.
After leaving office 12 years earlier with an 87% approval rating, Lula saw the wave of optimism that had brought his party to power in 2002 largely replaced by a wave of hatred.
In 2016, he became the main target in a sprawling corruption investigation as Brazil descended into turmoil, including the impeachment of his successor, former President Dilma Rousseff.
Lula spent 580 days in prison before his conviction was overturned because of flaws in the investigations and legal proceedings.
The arrest stopped him from running against Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain who rose to power in 2018 vowing to undo much of what progressives had achieved since the end of military rule in the 1980s.
Still, Lula remained a symbol for much of the global left, attracting visitors that ranged from former Uruguayan President Pepe Mujica to the philosopher Noam Chomsky.
He returned to office convinced that Brazil stood on the front line of a broader struggle against a global right-wing movement.
The January 8, 2023, attacks by Bolsonaro supporters on government buildings in Brasilia, days after his inauguration, only reinforced that belief for many.
"As long as I am alive, the far right will not return to power in this country," he has repeatedly said while promoting his campaign.
REGIONAL STAKES
While Lula has strengthened ties with China, revived Brazil's leadership role in the BRICS bloc of emerging nations and expanded engagement with Europe, recent right-wing victories in South America, and a confrontational relationship with the Trump administration, have left him increasingly isolated in the Western Hemisphere.
Some Brazilian diplomats say Washington views Brazil as the last major obstacle to a sweep of Trump-aligned governments across Latin America, after recent victories in Chile, Colombia, Honduras and Peru, and an unprecedented expansion of US power in Venezuela after its military intervention.
In Washington, progressives view Lula as a "beacon of hope," said Alex Main of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a left-leaning think tank.
In neighboring Argentina, opponents of libertarian President Javier Milei see Lula's possible reelection as a potential boost ahead of next year's vote.
"If Lula wins, it will create a countercurrent to what has been taking hold in the region and show there is resistance to these right-wing winds," said Santiago Cafiero, a congressman and former foreign minister.
Diplomats from liberal governments in Europe and other regions, who have been supportive of Brazil's progressive climate initiatives, are also watching closely.
"If human rights are being violated in a pretty big way or if the Amazon is being deforested in a big way, then it's going to be much more difficult for us to engage with Brazil," said a European ambassador, who asked not to be named.
FEARS OF INTERFERENCE
Brazil's resistance to Trump and his tariffs appears to have benefited Lula among some voters, lifting his approval ratings as some progressives dubbed Flavio Bolsonaro as "Tariflavio," pointing to the senator's recent visit to the US to win Trump's support.
But in recent weeks, Lula's allies have voiced concerns that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize election results if he wins, arguing attempts to interfere are already underway.
They point to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's remarks blaming Lula for the failure of trade negotiations that led to higher US tariffs on Brazilian goods, and a failed effort to send US officials to Brazil on a mission to "discuss electoral integrity," according to the US State Department.
Before the 2022 election, former President Joe Biden sent his Central Intelligence Agency director to tell former President Bolsonaro not to mess with elections, sources told Reuters at the time, and made sure the US was among the first countries to recognize the result.
Last week, 31 Democrats in Congress, including US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, urged Rubio to respect Brazil's election result.
In a letter, they expressed "grave concern" over a "sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil."
The State Department did not respond to a request for comment but has denied previous accusations from Lula's government of election interference.
(Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu and Brendan O'Boyle in Brasilia; Additional reporting by Lucila Sigal, in Buenos Aires; Editing by Aurora Ellis)
