By Mayela Armas and Julia Symmes Cobb
CARACAS/BOGOTA, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who returned on Sunday after nearly a year away, will walk a tightrope as she seeks the elections her supporters want without running afoul of a US-backed negotiation process between the interim government and other opposition groups.
Machado's return to Venezuela after several failed attempts risks straining her ties with US President Donald Trump's administration. Washington
has said she has every right to be in Venezuela, but has praised acting President Delcy Rodriguez and supports a negotiation process between the Rodriguez government and opposition groups that do not include Machado's Vente Venezuela movement.
The talks, which have continued this month, would remake the electoral council and top court ahead of eventual elections. Both bodies are staffed by ruling party loyalists and backed ousted President Nicolas Maduro in a disputed 2024 presidential election, despite tallies published by Machado's movement that showed her candidate had won. The Trump administration captured Maduro in January,
Machado supporters, tens of thousands of whom swarmed her caravan between Barquisimeto and Caracas on Sunday, waving flags, chanting her name and festooning her with rosaries, are eager for elections and call her the next president. She has said a presidential vote should happen in 2027.
Neither Machado's team nor the communications ministry, which handles government press inquiries, immediately responded to requests for comment.
But though Machado cultivated Trump as an ally for years, he said last month it was too soon to consider democratic elections. On Sunday, Trump said he had been unaware of her return plans, though a person briefed on her movements disputed that.
RISK OF SHORT CIRCUIT WITH WASHINGTON
Machado's eagerness for a vote could "short-circuit" the relationship with the US and its three-phase stabilization, recovery and transition plan for Venezuela, said Ricardo Rios, head of Poder y Estrategia, a political risk consultancy.
"The idea (at the negotiations) is to hold a regional election before a presidential election. She will probably push for electoral guarantees and for a presidential election to be held as soon as possible," Rios said.
But much remains to be defined before voters cast ballots.
“What guarantees does the ruling sector have to leave power (if it is defeated)?" Rios asked. "That still needs to be defined in order to make this viable, because otherwise, no matter how popular she is, it complicates matters."
US AND EU URGE DIALOGUE
Machado's safe return was a direct outcome of the negotiations, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a longtime champion of Machado, said on Sunday, adding he expects all political actors to support the talks.
The EU echoed that sentiment, saying on Monday authorities and all political actors should advance "an inclusive, Venezuelan-led dialogue towards free and fair elections."
"The reception she got yesterday will only reinforce the tendency to demand instant results," said Phil Gunson, senior analyst for the Andes region at the International Crisis Group think tank. "Not only might that provoke a reaction from government hardliners, but it could — if successful — produce a political rupture instead of a peaceful transition, with inadequate post-electoral guarantees and a potentially ungovernable country."
The opposition included in the talks, led by Dinorah Figuera, a lawmaker elected in 2015 to the last Venezuelan legislative body recognized by the US, said Machado's return was a significant step in the US plan. The Rodriguez government has not acknowledged Machado's return and did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
“Her role is also tied to how she interprets the signals from the United States, which has called for reconstruction and reconciliation. She has to be an ally in the negotiations," said Oswaldo Ramirez, managing director of ORC Consultores.
"Rubio sent a clear message," he added. “I don’t see her trying to torpedo the negotiations. She can’t stray outside the lines.”
(Reporting by Mayela Armas in Caracas and Julia Symmes Cobb in Bogota;Editing by Rod Nickel)
