By Joseph Ax and Tim Reid
May 13 (Reuters) - Republicans have won the Great Redistricting War of 2026, but that may not be enough for President Donald Trump's party to maintain its hold on the U.S. House of Representatives in November's midterm elections.
Republicans are positioned to gain up to a dozen House seats currently held by Democrats through redistricting, the redrawing of the boundaries of electoral districts. But that advantage may be offset by Trump's low public approval ratings and the historical
trend that a president's party typically loses seats in midterms, according to independent analysts.
The upshot: Many analysts still believe Democrats have the upper hand in the elections for the House, where Republicans currently hold a slim majority.
'THE UNDERLYING POLITICS'
"It is incontrovertible that Republican chances in the House have increased," said Jacob Rubashkin, who analyzes House races for the electoral forecaster Inside Elections. "But none of the underlying politics has changed."
Republican redistricting efforts, set in motion by Trump last year, were given a boost in recent weeks, after a pair of judicial decisions – one from the U.S. Supreme Court and another from Virginia's top court - created new opportunities to secure House districts favorable to candidates from Trump's party.
Republicans won a House majority in the 2024 U.S. elections by only three seats in the 435-seat chamber. But they now have reshaped 14 districts across six states in their favor, and Republican state legislators are pursuing three or four more in Louisiana, Alabama and South Carolina. Democrats have managed to gain five seats in California, as well as a new Democratic district in Utah, thanks to a court ruling.
Each House seat represents an individual contest. But with the various redrawn state electoral maps, Democrats likely must win the national popular vote in House races by 3 to 4 percentage points to capture a majority in the chamber, depending on how redistricting plays out in those three Southern states, according to Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
Most published opinion polls show Democrats exceeding that margin, at least as of right now.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday showed 41% of registered voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their House district if the election were held today, compared to 35% who said they would vote Republican.
That gap of 6 percentage points on the "generic ballot" would appear to be enough in November to overcome the advantage that Republican redistricting has built.
In the 2018 midterm elections - two years into Trump's first term as president - Democrats rode a wave of dissatisfaction with his job performance to gain 41 House seats, comfortably winning a majority.
In the 2022 midterms - two years into Democrat Joe Biden's presidency - Republicans managed only a nine-seat gain in the House in the aftermath of a ruling by the conservative-majority Supreme Court rolling back abortion rights.
"The current Democratic lead in the generic ballot, that would probably do it - but if they have a situation like 2022, it's more of a tossup," Kondik said.
For now, Republicans are facing headwinds, including the unpopular Iran war that Trump launched and the attendant rise in inflation and energy costs. Only 36% of Americans approve of Trump's job performance, compared with 63% who disapprove, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll published.
'A WINNING MESSAGE'
Republicans dismissed the idea that Democrats are favored to win the House.
"House Republicans are on offense because we have the strong candidates, an historic fundraising advantage, a winning message and favorable map to defy history and grow the majority," said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the Republican national House campaign arm.
Just two weeks ago, Democrats seemed confident that they had largely blunted Trump's push for Republican states to draw more favorable congressional voting maps. Voters in California and Virginia had approved new Democratic-backed maps, answering Republican-led states such as Texas, North Carolina and Missouri.
Then Florida joined the mix, with statehouse Republicans approving a map on April 29 aimed at flipping four Democratic seats. On the same day, the U.S. Supreme Court's voting rights decision opened the door for states to eliminate majority-Black districts that historically favor Democrats. Republican lawmakers in Southern states rushed to take advantage.
The Virginia Supreme Court on May 8 threw out a new map drawn by Democrats and approved by voters that had targeted four Republican-held House seats in the state.
Virginia Democrats have filed an emergency request to the U.S. Supreme Court to overrule the Virginia court's decision. Lawsuits are pending in Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana and elsewhere seeking to block Republican efforts.
Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, vowed on Monday in a letter to colleagues that his party would still win in November before launching a "massive redistricting counteroffensive" ahead of the 2028 elections.
Some Democrats said the adverse court rulings could mobilize their voters to turn out in November.
'PALPABLE FRUSTRATION'
Rodney Willett, a Democratic state delegate in Virginia who played a central role in getting the now-invalidated electoral map passed by voters in a referendum last month, said he has been receiving constant texts, phone calls and Facebook messages from angry constituents since the state Supreme Court's ruling.
"There has been huge disappointment and palpable frustration," Willett said before meeting with Democrats in his county. "My message this evening will be to tell people to channel that energy and elect folks we know can do a better job."
U.S. Representative Sharice Davids, a Kansas Democrat who has kept her seat even after Republicans redrew her district in 2022 to be more Republican-friendly, said that politically motivated redistricting helped turn out supporters.
Davids told Reuters that Democrats should argue to voters that Trump and his fellow Republicans are trying to "rig the system to maintain political power."
(Reporting by Joseph Ax in New York and Tim Reid in Washington; Editing by Paul Thomasch and Will Dunham)
