By Greg Torode
HONG KONG, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Chinese construction of a runway on Antelope Reef in the Paracels archipelago is well underway with analysts estimating it could be completed by mid-2027, strengthening Beijing's military control over the disputed South China Sea.
Satellite images reviewed by Reuters show grading work, piles of gravel and concrete, and compaction cranes in operation to build a full-scale runway that military attaches and security analysts say could be one of China's most
important offshore bases in the region.
The images, taken on September 25 by commercial satellite imagery provider Vantor, also show a fully loaded gravel barge heading to a newly built wharf.
A completed base at Antelope would be China's most significant military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade, extending the reach of Chinese naval ships and military aircraft in a waterway that is an increasingly militarised arena of competition between Beijing and the United States and its allies over Taiwan.
"If Fiery Cross is the guide, I'd expect the runway paved in the first half of 2027 and a first landing by mid-2027, possibly earlier," said Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source data platform PLATracker, referring to a 3-km (3,280-yard) runway built on a reef in the disputed Spratly Islands further south in 2015.
"They've had 10 years to get faster at this," he said.
Lewis said he had yet to note signs of excavation for possible ammunition and fuel storage, which a base of this scale would need.
China's defence ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
China has yet to acknowledge construction of a new military base, while state media have said Antelope will serve civilian needs such as weather forecasting and maritime and scientific research.
Vantor imagery analysts and open-source intelligence tracker Damien Symon, who first highlighted dredging at the reef in early January, also described the cranes as ones used to compact reclaimed or loose earth into foundations before paving.
In the northern part of the South China Sea, a future Antelope base would help extend deployments of a wide range of Chinese naval ships and military aircraft and help protect the approaches to Hainan Island, where China keeps its nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.
Reuters reported in late August that new installations have been sighted on a smaller islet near Antelope but analysts have yet to gauge definitively the likely function of the three-pronged construction on Yagong Island.
The entire Paracels is also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan. China drove out the forces of then-South Vietnam from bases in the Paracels in a brief battle in 1974 and has occupied them ever since over Hanoi's objections. The Vietnamese foreign ministry and Taiwan's defence and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to Reuters' questions.
The progress on Antelope comes as China this week confirmed the creation of a new joint military support facility in neighbouring Laos that could deepen Beijing's presence in Southeast Asia.
(Reporting by Greg Torode in Hong Kong; Additional reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Lincoln Feast)
