By Edward McAllister and Aleksandar Vasovic
BELGRADE, Oct 26 (Reuters) - By unseating longtime leader Aleksandar Vucic in Sunday's election, Serbia's student protest movement did what demonstrators in other European capitals can only dream of. Now, though, comes the gritty business of governing - something neither the students nor their handpicked candidates have any experience of.
Tens of thousands of people took to the streets across the country to celebrate when Vucic conceded defeat late on Sunday
in a historic poll that capped two years of peaceful anti-government protests.
But as the jubilant crowd lit flares and fireworks, sang and danced, questions lingered: who will emerge from this leaderless movement as prime minister, what exactly will their policies be, and can a bunch of political unknowns with no previous affiliation stick together to shore up the economy, root out graft and juggle complex international relations?
The answers will determine the political stability of Serbia, the largest economy in the Western Balkans, and its relations with China, Russia, and its largest trading partner, the European Union.
The students' victory "is likely to trigger broad institutional and policy changes centred on anti-corruption, the rule of law, and better public services. However, bureaucratic resistance to reforms and the movement’s limited governing experience could make the transition challenging," Teneo Global Research said in a report on Monday.
WINNERS, BUT CAN THEY STICK TOGETHER?
The protest movement began after 16 people died when a railway station canopy collapsed in the northern city of Novi Sad in 2024 and the student-led demonstrations called for accountability and an end to corruption.
Despite not having a figurehead, the students won widespread support, before choosing 250 academics, lawyers, doctors, actors, farmers and musicians to represent them in the election.
The movement and some of the top candidates on its list have given some idea of what it stands for, promising a domestic anti-corruption program centred on institutional overhauls.
It does not recognise Kosovo, Serbia's former southern province which declared independence in 2008, but wants to hold a referendum on Serbia's accession to the EU, with which relations have frayed in recent years.
Prominent figures include the head of the students' candidate list, cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, former central bank governor Dejan Soskic and Radomir Sajcic, a professor at Belgrade University, who spoke on behalf of the students following their victory. But there is no certainty that any of them will hold a ministerial post, and it remains to be seen whether the candidates can form a cohesive government that can agree on policy long enough to use their comfortable parliamentary majority to enact change.
"(The student movement created) such a shift in Serbia's culture; we will just have to see if it lasts," said Katarina Popovic, also a professor at the University of Belgrade.
"We just hope that there are big goals that can keep them together long enough to deconstruct the system."
REFORMING PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS
Under Serbia's constitution, the students' candidates have 90 days to form a government once parliament is convened after the announcement of final results by the state election commission.
Time matters, especially with a budget to pass before year-end amid growing public and private debt levels, while any attempt to end corruption will require an overhaul of the police and intelligence services and judicial reform.
State institutions require "detoxification" after 14 years of Vucic, said Bozo Prelevic, a Belgrade-based lawyer and former co-minister of the interior.
Prelevic warned that Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), will pose a strong opposition, and that the new government would have to fight its corner.
Vucic and the SNS repeatedly denied accusations of repression and corruption.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
In Russia, Serbia's traditional ally and principal supplier of natural gas, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov praised Vucic, but stopped short of congratulating the students.
"We respect Russia both as a great power and as our historically important partner and, in many cases, protector," Student List representative Jovo Bakic, a sociologist and a university lecturer, told Russia’s RT Balkan TV, adding that there would be no change in Serbia's foreign policy towards Russia, including not introducing sanctions against Moscow.
Also closely watching is Ukraine, which has been an indirect beneficiary of Serbian weapons in its fight to repel Russia's four-year-long invasion.
European officials congratulated the students and said they stood ready to help the country in its fight against corruption.
"I am sure (the Student List) will find a way, just as they have so far, to choose someone capable of governing - someone who will have the privilege, but also the immense responsibility, to lead Serbia through these reforms," said Savo Manojlovic of the student-friendly Move-Change movement.
(Writing by Edward McAllister; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
