By Joseph Ax and David Morgan
March 10 (Reuters) - Minutes into Donald Trump's State of the Union address laying out his argument for why voters should keep Republicans in power in November's midterm elections, the president boasted that falling gasoline prices had solved a "disaster" left behind by his predecessor.
Two weeks later, gas prices have risen by nearly 60 cents a gallon, part of a burgeoning energy crisis that began when Trump and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on February 28
and set off a regional conflict that has expanded well beyond Iran's borders.
The pain at the pump is quickly turning into a political headache for Trump and his fellow Republicans, whose narrow congressional majority looks increasingly fragile ahead of the midterms.
Crude oil prices on Tuesday were easing off Monday's dramatic gains, and it remains to be seen where gasoline prices will head in the nearly nine months leading up to the November 3 election. But even before the Iran war, U.S. voters were already angry about the high cost of living and frustrated that Trump has not done more to address it, Reuters/Ipsos polls show.
"You can't hide gas prices," said Jacob Perry, a Republican strategist. "You can lie about all this other stuff and claim everything is fake news. But there's a giant sign on every street corner saying how bad things are. Literally every commute to work is a reminder."
AFFORDABILITY A CAMPAIGN FOCUS
Democrats have promised to put affordability center stage in their campaigns. The party needs to flip only three Republican-held House of Representatives seats to win a majority, though they face a tougher path in the Senate.
"Trump promised a Golden Age in America," House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said on X. "Meanwhile, Republicans are crashing the economy, gas prices are out of control and the extremists are spending billions dropping bombs in the Middle East."
Some House Republicans, who are huddling in Florida this week at a policy retreat to discuss their legislative agenda, acknowledged that surging gas prices are a worry to voters, but cited Trump's assertion that the increase would be short-lived and said the administration's efforts to increase domestic energy production would lessen the sting.
"Every day that people pull into the gas station and pay what they're paying for fuel, I mean, it hurts, and we know it hurts," said Representative Austin Scott, of Georgia. "We're going to do what we can to fix it. They understand it's a short-term issue."
TRUMP CAMPAIGNED ON LOWERING COSTS
The average gas price nationwide on Tuesday was $3.54 a gallon, up about 19% since the war began, according to AAA.
In a sign of the White House’s concern, Trump planned to review several options aimed at curbing oil prices, Reuters reported on Monday, including a possible release of crude oil from strategic reserves, restricting U.S. exports and waiving some federal taxes. Trump said on Monday evening that the U.S. would waive some oil-related sanctions, though he did not offer details.
Trump plans to discuss the economy when he travels to Ohio and Kentucky on Wednesday, the White House said.
Higher gas prices may be particularly damaging for a president who won the White House in 2024 largely on the promise that he would curb inflation, lower energy rates and bring down the cost of living.
Representative Warren Davidson, an Ohio Republican, said the rise in gas prices is a "concern" for the midterms.
"The economy is always going to be one of the things on the ballot," he said. "The other things the president's done on the economy have been tremendous, so we'll see how it turns out."
'IF THEY RISE, THEY RISE'
Trump's own response to the spiking prices seems unlikely to assuage Americans' anxiety. In an interview with Reuters last week, Trump said he had no concern about gas prices and predicted they would drop once the Iran conflict ends, adding, “If they rise, they rise.”
He repeated his contention on social media over the weekend, saying that “short term oil prices” were a “very small price to pay” for global security.
Trump’s shifting rationales for the Iran war, however, have made it more difficult for him to argue that the disruption to the U.S. economy is worthwhile. Administration officials have not presented evidence that Iran posed an immediate threat, and Trump himself had insisted that U.S. strikes last year “obliterated” the country’s nuclear weapons program.
"I don’t think that people care that much about Iran," said John Feehery, a Republican strategist. "I think they care about their gas prices. Any president that spends the majority of his time talking about international issues and not talking about dinner table issues, they run a risk of alienating voters.
"This better be pretty quick, that’s all I can say," he added of the war.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax and David Morgan; Additional reporting by Nicole Jao; editing by Scott Malone and Alistair Bell)
