By Lili Bayer, Humeyra Pamuk and Sabine Siebold
BRUSSELS/WASHINGTON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Senior European diplomats will seek to reassure the Pentagon’s policy chief on Thursday that they are stepping up on defence amid uncertainty about a U.S. review of forces in Europe and concern about Russia, officials told Reuters.
Washington announced a six-month review of U.S. troop deployments in Europe in June, as the U.S. administration pushes for Europe to take primary responsibility for the continent’s defence
and after President Donald Trump vented his anger at Europeans for not doing more to assist the U.S. in the Iran war.
Since Trump returned to office last year, NATO has been under unprecedented strain, with some members concerned that Washington might not be fully committed to an alliance that was formed in 1949 with the primary aim of countering the risk of a Soviet attack on western Europe.
The review, primarily led by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, has fuelled questions in European capitals about the U.S. administration’s aims and whether Washington is seeking to use the process as a genuine consultation, symbolic gesture or negotiating tool.
"We don't know if it's a real exercise or if a decision has already been taken," said one European official who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations.
"What we want to make sure is that the U.S. understands it can rely on many allies," the official said.
DOCUMENTS OUTLINE US MESSAGING TO ALLIES
Colby is expected to brief ambassadors representing NATO members at the alliance’s Brussels headquarters on Thursday.
"The United States is consulting with Allies as part of its force posture review," a NATO official said.
The U.S. currently has roughly 80,000 troops in Europe. Over the past months, the U.S. announced troop withdrawals and cut the forces it assigns to NATO’s defence plans.
European governments are now waiting to see if — and where — the review will lead to further reductions, and officials say two documents Washington circulated to NATO members over the summer raised new questions about U.S. intentions.
A "terms of reference" document listed goals for the review as including enhanced access, basing and overflights in the European theatre, according to two people familiar with the matter, as well as incentivising and ensuring that European allies take the lead in defending the continent.
NATO member countries also received a questionnaire, seen by Reuters, covering issues ranging from defence spending to strategy, procurement and support for U.S. foreign policy priorities.
"What if any restrictions has the country placed on U.S. access, basing, and overflight (ABO)? If so, why? Are they willing to reduce or eliminate any such restrictions?" the U.S. asked in its questionnaire.
"Has the country publicly opposed regulations or other measures designed to inhibit or reduce transatlantic defense industrial cooperation? If so, how? If not, would they be willing to do so?" it added.
Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur told Reuters on Wednesday that his country was preparing its response to the questionnaire, which was first reported by Bloomberg.
"Estonia shares the view that Europe needs to do more for its own defence," he said.
UNCERTAINTY OVER REVIEW PROCESS
Colby said on Wednesday that the posture review is aimed at supporting the alliance’s evolution.
"The Review is designed to ensure our strategic posture in Europe advances and accelerates the NATO 3.0 of an Alliance rededicated to … clarity, rigor, and readiness," he wrote on social media platform X.
But a European diplomat said officials believe the U.S. already knows the answers to the questions it posed – and that Washington’s apparent linking of basing issues to political stances seemed to be a highly transactional approach to the transatlantic partnership.
One item in the questionnaire asks whether the country has publicly supported U.S. foreign policy, including in Europe, the Middle East and the Western Hemisphere.
The process has raised the risk of a competition among Europeans for U.S. attention, officials said.
"Some allies are making offers to the U.S. to improve terms for troops and basing rights," said the first European official.
A second European diplomat said it was important "for the alliance's top commander to remain involved" and "that the review doesn’t become a beauty contest".
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
European officials see Colby as a key player shaping U.S. strategy, and diplomats are expected to use Thursday’s meeting as an opportunity to highlight their contributions to the continent’s security.
"We are pretty optimistic although nothing is set in stone," an Eastern European official said of the review, adding that they "received promising signals from the U.S." and "sent an extensive answer to the American questionnaire".
But there is also a sense in policy circles that Colby is not the ultimate decision-maker and that U.S. thinking remains unpredictable.
"Whatever he says might be overruled by Trump or (Defense Secretary Pete) Hegseth within 20 minutes," said a NATO source.
(Reporting by Lili Bayer, Humeyra Pamuk and Sabine Siebold; Additional reporting by Phillip Stewart in Washington and Luiza Ilie in Bucharest; Editing by Don Durfee and Gareth Jones)
