By Maayan Lubell
JERUSALEM, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will face voters this year for the first time since the 2023 Hamas attack shook his security credentials, with the outcome
of the latest crisis in Iran likely to be key to salvaging his legacy, analysts say.
Successive polls since late 2023, including all those by the three main news channels in Israel over the past month, have shown Netanyahu losing the election, due in October.
Israel's longest-serving prime minister is facing disagreements within his right-wing coalition over a military conscription law. He is on trial for corruption and has been blamed for security failures over the Hamas attack, the single deadliest day in Israel's history.
The unrest in Iran, where U.S. President Donald Trump is wielding the threat of strikes, may support Netanyahu's fortunes, analysts say.
His top goal, said Udi Sommer, a political scientist at Tel Aviv University, "would be to make sure that this regime is gone either by the time this term is over, or if not then, then in the next term."
"So if you think about it as a legacy-defining term certainly for somebody who thinks of himself as the person who is going to be remembered in history as the one who secured the country, then you might want another one just to make sure that this is really set in stone," he said.
IRAN AND THE REGION
Trump's threats against Iran have drawn warnings of retaliation, prompting Netanyahu to warn of "horrible consequences" for Tehran if it strikes Israel.
Netanyahu's security cabinet was briefed on Tuesday about the chances of the Iranian government collapsing and the prospect of U.S. intervention, an Israeli government official said.
The assessment, according to another Israeli official, is that Trump has decided to intervene but the scope and timing of this action remains unclear.
For now, Netanyahu, who has warned Iran against rebuilding its nuclear and ballistic capabilities after a 12-day Israel-Iran war in June, has not signalled an imminent desire to get involved.
"Israel supports their struggle for freedom and strongly condemns the mass killings of innocent civilians," Netanyahu said on Sunday. "We all hope that the Persian nation will soon be liberated from the yoke of tyranny."
VICTIMS' FAMILIES WANT INDEPENDENT PROBE
Netanyahu's security credentials were hit hard by the surprise October 7 attack by Hamas militants on southern Israel, which killed 1,200 people and triggered the war in Gaza that killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and laid waste to the enclave.
The Israeli leader has rejected responsibility for any security failures and has pointed to Israel's gains in weakening Iran's proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria has also been ousted.
However, public mistrust has been heightened by Netanyahu's push to form a government-empowered inquiry into any security lapses, rather than the expected independent investigation demanded by families of the victims and supported by a majority of Israelis.
On the domestic front, Netanyahu's governing coalition is also struggling to push through a new military conscription law.
Military service is mandatory in Israel but Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox allies are seeking exemptions within their community.
However, a law that will satisfy the ultra-Orthodox leaders is likely to be unpopular among mainstream Israelis, all the more so after the Gaza war, which has exacted the highest Israeli military death toll in decades.
Without support from the ultra-Orthodox, Netanyahu's coalition may soon face an early election.
Netanyahu's government must get parliament's approval for the state budget by the end of March. If it cannot garner enough votes, a snap election will be held approximately 90 days later.
Without the ultra-Orthodox parties, which quit the government last year over the military conscription issue, Netanyahu controls less than half the seats in Israel's 120-member parliament.
Many Israeli political commentators see an early election likely in June.
"We're working under the assumption that the elections will be before October," said one official familiar with the matter.
LEGAL BATTLES: PARDON, PROBES, PROTESTS
Netanyahu's corruption trial, on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust, which he denies, is still ongoing. In November, he appealed to Israel's President Isaac Herzog for a pardon, a request backed by Trump.
Still under legal examination, the request if granted would be unprecedented and will likely draw strong backlash, adding fuel to protests against Netanyahu's government, which has partly resumed its contentious pre-war plan to overhaul Israel's judicial system.
Netanyahu is also dealing with a state probe into suspected wrongdoing in government purchases of submarines and missile boats from Germany, in which he denies any wrongdoing.
And he faces scrutiny over investigations into his aides' security leaks and alleged dealings with Qatar during the war. Though Netanyahu has not been named as a suspect, the probes have cast a shadow over his wartime conduct.
(Writing by Maayan Lubell; editing by Rami Ayyub and Sharon Singleton)
