By Matt Spetalnick
WASHINGTON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The Republican Party's staggering losses at the ballot box this week have left President Donald Trump diminished in Washington and facing tougher legislative oversight and scrutiny of his agenda.
But on foreign policy, he could remain unbowed.
Even as Democratic lawmakers seek to rein in the Republican president when they take control of Congress, Trump will retain broad latitude to pursue his objectives on the world stage, from Iran and Israel to Ukraine
and China, during his final two years in office.
The central question, analysts say, is whether Trump will feel chastened by his party’s poor showing in Tuesday’s midterm elections or emboldened to take more dramatic steps to craft his legacy in US relations with friends and foes alike.
Most urgent is the intractable war against Iran, which Trump acknowledged on Wednesday contributed to his party losing both chambers of Congress. He insisted, though, he had no regrets about attacking the Islamic Republic and it was essential to stop Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, which it says it has never sought.
The midterms outcome illustrated voter backlash after eight months of conflict that have driven US gasoline prices up and his approval ratings down.
Democrats had accused Republicans of ceding Congress’ war-making powers and giving Trump a free hand internationally, not just against Iran but with his approach to Russia’s war in Ukraine, his tariffs campaign, his capture of Venezuela’s president, and deadly boat strikes off Latin America.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on Wednesday his party's mandate is to put a check on “Trump's chaos at home and abroad” and end the Iran war.
That is easier said than done, given the extensive leeway with foreign policy and military operations that presidents have long possessed.
“A Democratic Congress has the ability to stop Trump's domestic legislative agenda, but it doesn't have much ability to stop a president from exercising his powers as commander-in-chief,” said William Wechsler, senior director of Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council.
Democrats’ main tools could be investigations, Trump nominees' confirmation hearings and funding authority to curb his foreign operations, but analysts say their leverage will be limited.
While not responding directly to Reuters' questions about the election's implications, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said: “President Trump has effectively restored American strength on the global stage ... The president will continue to work with anyone to put America first and improve the livelihoods of families across the country, and his foreign policy decisions have never been motivated by politics."
FACING LAME-DUCK STATUS
Presidents entering their lame-duck phase, when barred from running again and seeing influence waning at home, have often focused on global affairs – and many analysts expect something similar from Trump.
But some experts see the risk of Trump’s impulsiveness leading to further instability in the Middle East or sparking conflict elsewhere, possibly targeting Cuba, a Communist-ruled island he has placed under an oil blockade and repeatedly threatened.
“If triggered and cornered," said Laura Blumenfeld, a foreign policy analyst at Johns Hopkins University, "Trump may elect to flex his presidential powers through unilateral use of force abroad.”
With Iran, Trump faces the choice of launching a new round of airstrikes, seeking a negotiated exit or maintaining the status quo - a tense stalemate keeping global energy prices high and Gulf neighbors on edge.
While Iranian leaders have gloated over what they see as Trump’s humiliation at home, people in Washington familiar with the deliberations say he could still take military action. One source said Trump had nothing to lose politically now.
But Sina Toossi, an Iran specialist at the Center for International Policy in Washington, said: “Escalation offers no clear path to victory and risks compounding the very economic grievances that drove voters to punish Republicans.”
And any return to major hostilities could also stir further dissent within Trump’s MAGA movement, where a growing number of followers are upset about him breaking his 2024 campaign promise to avoid foreign interventions.
Vice President JD Vance distanced himself from Trump’s Iran policy on Wednesday, questioning whether it was worth the cost and blaming it for Republicans' electoral wipeout.
DEMOCRATS TARGET UKRAINE, ISRAEL POLICIES
Taking control of Congress in January, Democrats will also seek to revive support for Ukraine, under pressure from Trump as it fights a 4-1/2-year-old Russian invasion.
Democrats hope to draw more Republicans into efforts to approve new aid to Ukraine and build a majority that could withstand a veto by Trump, who has halted direct assistance.
Trump’s lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel exports prompted criticism, including from some Republicans, for reinforcing the impression that he was increasingly siding with Moscow.
At the same time, Democrats want to use their newfound power to start repairing relations with European allies as well as Canada, though analysts say lawmakers alone won't be able to regain trust with governments rattled by Trump’s tariffs and pressure tactics.
Trump is also expected to face a Congress less supportive of Israel than ever before, while some Republicans are also questioning their party’s traditional backing for Washington’s closest Middle East ally.
Many winning Democratic candidates were progressives who campaigned against military aid to Israel and the US-Israeli war on Iran, and they plan to push for an end to billions of dollars in annual assistance.
Trump himself announced on Election Day that such aid would be stopped at the end of the year - though it was not clear he has the legal authority.
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s embrace of Trump and the Republican Party and a wave of settler violence in the occupied West Bank had already eroded decades of bipartisan support.
Despite that, Trump's veto power could limit the Democrats' ability to force major policy changes.
In the end, most analysts see Trump’s foreign policy for the remainder of his second term driven by his vision of his place in history, which so far has been based heavily on the exercise of military power abroad.
“He’s concerned about his legacy of having left an imprint on the world, not necessarily a positive imprint,” Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said on a webcast by the Washington think tank.
(Reporting by Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Don Durfee and Daniel Wallis)
