Argentina's May trade surplus expected at $2 billion, helped by oil and farm exports

By Hernan Nessi

BUENOS AIRES, June 16 (Reuters) - Argentina likely posted a trade surplus of $2 billion in May, a Reuters poll showed, as crude shipments were buoyed by high global oil prices and weak domestic demand meant exports outweighed imports.

The median estimate from 13 local and foreign analysts was for a surplus of $2 billion in the South American country's monthly trade balance. The average forecast was a surplus of $2.1 billion.

Analysts said Argentina had benefited from elevated international

crude prices, which have been supported by supply disruptions caused by the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, while sluggish economic activity - particularly in industry - curbed imports.

"May's trade balance will continue to be positively affected by oil exports, benefiting from high international prices, and by continued agricultural exports," said Ignacio Ruiz, an economist at consultancy Ecolatina.

He added that weak economic activity had prevented a stronger rebound in imports, which he said would likely remain near $6 billion per month.

Estimates in the Reuters poll ranged from a surplus of $1.3 billion to $2.7 billion.

"The external trade surplus is becoming established as one of the macroeconomic pillars," said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist and director at consultancy VDC.

He said the energy sector had generated about half of the surplus, highlighting what he described as a strong structural shift in the sectoral composition of the economy.

The May estimate implies Argentina has accumulated a trade surplus of $9.5 billion in the first five months of 2026, compared with $1.9 billion in the year-earlier period, according to Ivan Cachanosky, chief economist at Fundacion Libertad y Progreso.

Cachanosky said the May surplus would likely reflect a 17% year-on-year jump in exports, outpacing an 8% rise in imports. He projected a full-year trade surplus of $15.8 billion.

Argentina's INDEC statistics agency is due to publish the official May trade data on Thursday at 1900 GMT.

(Reporting by Hernan Nessi; editing by Barbara Lewis)