By Nandita Bose
Oct 7 (Reuters) - US President Donald Trump heads to Texas on Wednesday for the third time in a month, placing unusual focus on a state he won easily in 2024 but where Republicans now face unexpectedly tight midterm election battles as they seek to retain control of Congress.
Trump is due to speak in San Antonio alongside Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who is locked in a close race with Democrat James Talarico. A loss on November 3 would complicate the party's path to retaining
its slim Senate majority and mark a major setback in a Republican stronghold.
The rally is Trump's latest effort to mobilize his supporters for Paxton after staging an unusual midterm conventionin Dallas, in part to boost him. But Trump has also publicly criticized his longtime ally, calling Paxton "a pain in the ass sometimes" last week before adding that Republicans "need Ken so badly."
Trump's repeated trips to Texas are part of a broader push in Republican-leaning states, which were expected to be safely in hand but have instead become midterm battlegrounds. His 32-day campaign blitz has taken him through Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska, while Vice President JD Vance has campaigned in Alaska. Trump and Vance carried all six states in the 2024 presidential election.
Republicans are struggling as voters focus on high costs and the war with Iran, giving Trump record-low approval ratings. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday put his approval at 32%, with Democrats leading Republicans 44% to 37% among registered voters.
Trump surprised some Republicans in May by backing Paxton in a party runoff over longtime Senator John Cornyn, whom party leaders saw as a safer bet. Republicans are now spending heavily to defend territory they once expected to win comfortably.
Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024, but recent polls have shown Talarico ahead of Paxton. Republicans are also defending competitive House of Representatives seats in South Texas.
For Trump, the stakes are also personal. James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said losing the Senate race would be "devastating for Republicans and devastating for Donald Trump" given his support for Paxton. "I think the president clearly will do a lot to try to avoid that outcome," Henson said.
Trump's political operation has also poured millions into competitive House races. In San Antonio, Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran, is running in a newly redrawn district, part of a Republican-led remapping that Democrats have called a partisan gerrymander. De La Cruz is expected to speak at Wednesday's rally.
AN UNEASY ALLIANCE
Trump and Paxton's relationship has appeared awkward at times. Paxton was recorded telling donors that Republican candidates' numbers fell after the Trump-centered convention in Dallas, according to The New York Times, while Trump has publicly mocked Paxton's clothes, speaking style and appearance.
"So to be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped," Paxton said in the recording. His campaign has disputed suggestions that the remarks amounted to criticism of Trump. A spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
A Siena College poll released October 3 showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 45% among likely voters. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said rallying Trump's base was "necessary but not sufficient" for Paxton.
"Trump's visits are a Catch-22," Rottinghaus said. "The president can inspire as much as he can repel."
Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott, a close Trump ally who is also in a closer-than-expected re-election race, plans to skip Wednesday's rally, citing other campaign events.
"My rallies are saving the Republican Party, again," Trump said in an all-caps post on Truth Social on Tuesday.
Republicans are betting Trump can still turn out the voters who powered his 2024 victory even as his broader standing has weakened.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that just 24% of Hispanic voters approved of his performance. They were an important part of Trump's success in 2024, when he won nearly half the Hispanic vote, and are a bigger demographic in Texas than most states.
Wednesday's rally is scheduled for the Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio, with Trump expected to speak at 6 p.m. Central Time (2300 GMT).
(Reporting by Nandita Bose; Additional reporting by Nolan McCaskill and Bo Erickson in Washington; Editing by Trevor Hunnicutt and Cynthia Osterman)
